Utah State Aggies at Texas State Bobcats

Injuries noted

Utah State Aggies: Chris Joe (out for season) — ILB; condition unspecified.; Dakota Howell (out) — ILB; condition unspecified.; Diego Grateron (out) — ILB; condition unspecified.; Harrison Taggart (out) — ILB; condition unspecified in current report.; John Randle Jr. (out) — OL; condition unspecified.; Joshua Papu (out) — DL; condition unspecified.; Jude Nelson (out for season) — TE; condition unspecified.; Nikko Boncore (out for season) — WR; condition unspecified.; Rex Haynes (out) — WR; condition unspecified.; Chapman Lewis (questionable) — DB; condition unspecified.; Eli Wood (questionable) — WR; condition unspecified.; James Jennette (probable) — OLB; condition unspecified.; Jordan Pendleton (probable) — OLB; condition unspecified.

Texas State Bobcats: Cole Nilles (out) — ILB; condition unspecified.; Cole Snodgrass (out) — TE; condition unspecified.; Jordan Sample (out) — ILB; condition unspecified.; Mekhi Buchanan (out) — DL; condition unspecified.; Ryan Nolan (out) — DB; condition unspecified.; Davian Jackson (questionable) — RB; condition unspecified.; DonTerry Russell (questionable) — DL; condition unspecified.; J.P. Deeter (questionable) — DL; condition unspecified.; Jo'Laison Landry (questionable) — DL; condition unspecified.; Justin DeLeon (questionable) — OL; condition unspecified.; Blake Smith (probable) — TE; condition unspecified.; Bryce Carter (probable) — DL; condition unspecified.

QUARTERBACK

• Grady Brosterhous is USU's confirmed starter

  6.44 Y/A

  Grady Brosterhous is USU's confirmed starting quarterback. The October 23 game preview quotes Bronco Mendenhall's Monday press conference confirming Brosterhous will start this week. Mendenhall did not rule out McCae Hillstead also playing. 2026 line: 914 passing yards, 54.9% completions, 6.44 yards per attempt, 7-6 TD-INT over 6 games.

• Brad Jackson is TXST's projected starter

  9.18 Y/A

  Brad Jackson is TXST's projected starting quarterback. Current-week previews discuss Jackson as Texas State's quarterback for this matchup. An explicit team-attributed starting designation for October 24 was not retrieved. 2026 line: 1442 passing yards, 67.5% completions, 9.18 yards per attempt, 14-5 TD-INT over 6 games.

TRENCHES

• TXST: 303.5 rushing yards per game to USU's 120.2

  183.3 YPG

  Texas State is running for 303.5 yards a game through 6 games, up from 222.1 last season, which was already strong. Utah State is at 120.2, down from 162.9. Texas State's number may ease but the run game was a strength before this season. At home, Texas State should control the style with the ground game.

PACE & SCRIPT

• TXST: 40 points per game to USU's 14.5

  25.5 PPG

  Texas State scores almost three times what Utah State does, and both numbers have moved hard from last season: Texas State is up from 36.5, Utah State has fallen off a cliff from 30.9. Six games is a real chunk of a season, so the Utah State drop looks like a genuine offense problem. If Utah State cannot keep pace, Texas State gets to play from ahead and lean on its own tempo.

• USU @ TXST carries a 60.5 market total

  60.5

  At 60.5, Utah State at Texas State sits 9 points over the 51.5 median, so the market sees a shootout with two offenses moving the ball. Nothing on the sheet explains the number, so it reflects the market's view of both teams. It cracks if red-zone trips turn into field goals or a slow, run-heavy script shortens the game. High totals need a steady pace, so the first quarter is a quick check.

• USU: 23.5 points allowed per game to TXST's 32.2

  8.7 PPG

  USU is at 23.5 points allowed per game over 6 games; TXST is at 32.2 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season USU was at 28.7 over 13 games and TXST at 29 over 13 games.

MISMATCH

• TXST: 303.5 rush yards a game to USU's 120.2

  303.5 VS 120.2

  Texas State runs for 303.5 yards a game over 6 games, up from an already strong 222.1 last season. Utah State has fallen to 120.2 from 162.9. Six games is a small window and 303.5 is an extreme number, so expect it to dip, but Texas State was a good rushing team last season too. Utah State has to win early downs and make Texas State throw, or the Bobcats will dictate the pace at home.

COVERAGE

• USU: 218.8 passing yards allowed per game to TXST's 295.8

  77 YPG

  Utah State allows 218.8 passing yards a game over six games, and Texas State allows 295.8 over six. Neither is a lockdown unit, and the sheet doesn't show who they faced. Texas State's number over six games is a steady leak. Utah State's passing game has the easier draw, which points toward its quarterback and receiver props.

REPLACEMENT

• Cole Nilles (LB) is out for TXST

  OUT

  ILB; condition unspecified. Utah State at Texas State Injury Report — Week 8; report update posted October 23 at 7:09 p.m. PT (2026-10-23)

• Cole Snodgrass (TE) is out for TXST

  OUT

  TE; condition unspecified. Utah State at Texas State Injury Report — Week 8; report update posted October 23 at 7:09 p.m. PT (2026-10-23)

• Jordan Sample (LB) is out for TXST

  OUT

  ILB; condition unspecified. Utah State at Texas State Injury Report — Week 8; report update posted October 23 at 7:09 p.m. PT (2026-10-23)

• Mekhi Buchanan (DL) is out for TXST

  OUT

  DL; condition unspecified. Utah State at Texas State Injury Report — Week 8; report update posted October 23 at 7:09 p.m. PT (2026-10-23)

• Ryan Nolan (DB) is out for TXST

  OUT

  DB; condition unspecified. Utah State at Texas State Injury Report — Week 8; report update posted October 23 at 7:09 p.m. PT (2026-10-23)

SITUATIONAL

• TXST: 27.5 first downs per game to USU's 16.3

  11.2 FD

  Texas State is moving the chains far more than last season's 23 first downs a game, and Utah State has fallen from 20.6. More first downs means more snaps and more time of possession for Texas State. That fits with its scoring edge and points toward Texas State dictating the pace while Utah State's offense sits.

• USU has 6 more days of rest

  15d vs 9d

  Both sides had a bye, so neither team is coming in tired: Utah State on 15 days, Texas State on 9. Utah State's extra six days mostly means more installation time and healing. Texas State still got a break plus home field, so the rest edge here is thin. Do not lean much on the calendar in this one.

• TXST: 55.4% third-down conversion rate to USU's 37.5%

  17.9 PP

  USU is at 37.5% third-down conversion rate over 6 games; TXST is at 55.4% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season USU was at 34.5% over 13 games and TXST at 46.6% over 13 games.

• TXST: 259.3 team passing yards per game to USU's 189.8

  69.5 YPG

  USU is at 189.8 team passing yards per game over 6 games; TXST is at 259.3 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season USU was at 247 over 13 games and TXST at 250.9 over 13 games.

TEAM RECORD

• TXST is 3-1 at home; USU is 0-3 on the road

  3-1

  Texas State has won three of four at home, and Utah State has lost all three of its road games. Utah State has not yet shown it can win away from home, and Texas State has held serve on its own field most of the time. Three road games is a short run, so the 0-3 can move with one decent trip. For this game, the site split adds weight to the home side, best used alongside how these teams match up on the field.

• Pac-12 game: USU 1-1, TXST 1-1 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  These two share the Pac-12. USU is 1-1 against it, TXST is 1-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-24.