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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM

USC Trojans at Wisconsin Badgers

O/U 50.5 · SPREAD USC Trojans -2.5 · Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI

GARY'S PICK
Wisconsin Moneyline
NCAAFvs USC· +126

Wisconsin
Moneyline

+126 · CASHED · USC 7 · WIS 24

USC

The pick & result

Published pick
Wisconsin Badgers ML +126
Published odds
+126
Result
Won
Final score
7-24

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 50 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 18 12:32 PM
Close
Sat 7:20 PM
Move
SPREADUSC Trojans -2.5 (-112)USC Trojans -2.5 (-110)Price
TOTAL49.5 (-105)50.5 (-115)+1
MONEYLINEUSC Trojans -130USC Trojans -135−5
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 18 12:32 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-112)49.5 (-105)USC Trojans -130 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Oct 18 4:03 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-108)49.5 (-105)USC Trojans -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Oct 18 5:03 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-110)49.5 (-108)USC Trojans -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Oct 18 7:04 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-108)49.5 (-108)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +120
Oct 18 8:04 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-108)49.5 (-108)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Oct 18 10:04 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-110)49.5 (-112)USC Trojans -155 · Wisconsin Badgers +130
Oct 18 11:34 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-108)49.5 (-110)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Oct 19 12:34 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-108)49.5 (-105)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Oct 19 6:00 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-110)49.5 (-108)USC Trojans -160 · Wisconsin Badgers +130
Oct 19 7:31 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-108)49.5 (-108)USC Trojans -160 · Wisconsin Badgers +130
Oct 19 1:31 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-110)49.5 (-108)USC Trojans -160 · Wisconsin Badgers +130
Oct 19 4:31 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-108)49.5 (-110)USC Trojans -155 · Wisconsin Badgers +130
Oct 19 6:31 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-108)49.5 (-110)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Oct 20 1:46 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-108)49.5 (-110)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Oct 20 2:46 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-105)49.5 (-110)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Oct 20 3:17 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-108)49.5 (-110)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Oct 20 7:47 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-108)49.5 (-110)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Oct 21 12:48 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-105)49.5 (-108)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Oct 21 10:32 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-105)50.5 (-108)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Oct 21 11:32 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-108)50.5 (-108)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Oct 22 6:30 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-105)50.5 (-108)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Thu 11:58 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-108)50.5 (-108)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Thu 2:59 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-105)50.5 (-108)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Thu 5:23 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-102)49.5 (-120)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Thu 8:54 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-102)50.5 (-108)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Fri 4:10 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-102)50.5 (-108)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Fri 9:54 PMUSC Trojans -3 (-102)49.5 (-120)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Sat 4:45 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-102)49.5 (-110)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Sat 7:00 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-105)49.5 (-110)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Sat 8:00 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-102)49.5 (-108)USC Trojans -150 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Sat 8:30 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-102)49.5 (-110)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Sat 9:00 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-102)49.5 (-112)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +120
Sat 9:31 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-102)49.5 (-112)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Sat 9:51 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-102)50.5 (-108)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Sat 10:48 AMUSC Trojans -3 (-102)49.5 (-112)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +125
Sat 11:23 AMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-112)49.5 (-112)USC Trojans -140 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Sat 1:45 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-118)49.5 (-120)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +120
Sat 2:36 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-118)48.5 (-135)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +120
Sat 2:46 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-118)49.5 (-120)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +120
Sat 3:36 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-118)50.5 (-105)USC Trojans -145 · Wisconsin Badgers +120
Sat 4:16 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-118)49.5 (-120)USC Trojans -140 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Sat 4:26 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-115)49.5 (-120)USC Trojans -140 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Sat 4:47 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-115)50.5 (-105)USC Trojans -140 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Sat 4:58 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-115)50.5 (-110)USC Trojans -140 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Sat 5:08 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)USC Trojans -140 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Sat 5:19 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-115)USC Trojans -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +115
Sat 5:49 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-115)USC Trojans -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Sat 5:59 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-112)USC Trojans -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Sat 6:09 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-112)USC Trojans -130 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
Sat 7:10 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-115)USC Trojans -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110
CLOSESat 7:20 PMUSC Trojans -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-115)USC Trojans -135 · Wisconsin Badgers +110

The read

Saturday night under the lights at Camp Randall: No. 16 USC flies 1,670 miles to face an unranked Wisconsin team, and the Trojans are a -152 favorite. The question is simple: who wins? I'm not convinced it's USC, and at +126 I don't need to be sure.

USC's 6-1 looks better than the Trojans have played. Oregon threw for 366 on them. Rutgers, a defense allowing 36.8 a game, still ran for 168 and threw for 292. Louisiana went 16-of-22 through the air. Return touchdowns helped carry wins over Washington, Rutgers and Louisiana, and the best defense USC has seen is Penn State's, ranked 27th.

Wisconsin has played the tougher slate, No. 4 Notre Dame and No. 9 UCLA. Its defense has been the best unit in this game except for USC's passing game. Jayden Maiava has thrown for 245 to 349 yards every week, never more than one interception in a game, and Wisconsin's pass rush rarely gets home. That's the matchup that decides this. The good news for Badgers backers is that CB Javan Robinson, listed as probable, returns after missing UCLA, where Ty Dieffenbach threw for 264.

On the other side, Colton Joseph is a runner first, with 141 rushing yards against Michigan State. Center Austin Kawecki, also probable, is back in front of him. USC's run defense has leaked: 168 to Rutgers, 146 to Louisiana, 138 to Oregon. Wisconsin's problem is third down, 3-of-10 at UCLA and 4-of-15 at Penn State, against a USC defense that held Penn State to 2-of-12. If the Badgers fall behind and Joseph has to throw, it gets ugly.

What I'm ignoring: - the shared Penn State result - USC's bye week - the 2016 team tribute - Luke Fickell's officiating gripes - the 7-17 UCLA score, which came with 10 Wisconsin penalties against a top-10 team - Kilian O'Connor's season-ending injury, since O'Connor has been out since September

USC's roster talent is the honest case against me, and it's why this is a value play, not a hammer. But at home, at night, in a game I see as close to a coin flip, getting +126 on the Badgers is the better side of the price. Check the final report two hours before kickoff for Robinson and Kawecki.

Injuries noted

USC Trojans: Jahkeem Stewart (probable) — DT #4 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Terrell Anderson (out) — WR #9 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Corey Simms (out) — WR #10 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Jadyn Walker (probable) — LB #15 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Mark Bowman (questionable) — TE #19 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Kendarius Reddick (out) — S #23 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Taylor "Taybo" Johnson (out) — LB #50 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Roman Marchetti (out) — LB #57 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Kilian O'Connor (out) — OL #67 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Luc Weaver (questionable) — WR #80 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Jide Abasiri (questionable) — DT #97 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report

Wisconsin Badgers: Javan Robinson (probable) — CB #2 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Cai Bates (out) — CB #3 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Malachi Coleman (questionable) — WR #4 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Darrion Dupree (probable) — RB #6 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Nate Palmer (questionable) — RB #15 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Austin Kawecki (probable) — OL #51 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Jayden Maiava is USC's confirmed starter

    9.13 Y/A

    Jayden Maiava is USC's confirmed starting quarterback. USC's official depth chart dated October 21 lists Maiava first at quarterback. The October 22 Wisconsin-game report also explicitly identifies him as USC's full-time starter. 2026 line: 2045 passing yards, 67.9% completions, 9.13 yards per attempt, 18-3 TD-INT over 7 games.

  • Colton Joseph is WIS's confirmed starter

    7.53 Y/A

    Colton Joseph is WIS's confirmed starting quarterback. The October 20 USC-game depth chart supplied by UW Communications lists Joseph first team. The report notes that the chart is based on the previous game. 2026 line: 1198 passing yards, 54.7% completions, 7.53 yards per attempt, 10-5 TD-INT over 6 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • USC: 36.4 points per game to WIS's 27.5

    8.9 PPG

    USC scores at almost the same rate as last season, 36.4 now against 35.8 then, so that offense is who it is. The bigger story is Wisconsin, which has jumped from 12.8 points a game last season to 27.5 over six games. That kind of leap can come partly from softer early opponents, so Wisconsin's number is the one more likely to move. A game against an offense like USC's is a real test of whether the improvement holds.

  • WIS: 16.7 points allowed per game to USC's 25.1

    8.5 PPG

    USC is at 25.1 points allowed per game over 7 games; WIS is at 16.7 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season USC was at 23 over 13 games and WIS at 21.6 over 12 games.

  • USC: 32:47 time of possession per game to WIS's 27:39

    5:08 TOP

    USC is at 32:47 time of possession per game over 7 games; WIS is at 27:39 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season USC was at 30:01 over 13 games and WIS at 30:38 over 12 games.

MISMATCH

  • USC: 310.1 pass yards a game to WIS's 199.7

    310.1 VS 199.7

    USC throws for 310.1 yards a game over 7 games, in line with 296 last season, so the passing attack is steady. Wisconsin is up to 199.7 from 136.4, an improvement but still a gap. Because USC's number held across two seasons, it is the more reliable side of this matchup. Wisconsin's best answer is a long, run-heavy game plan that limits how many possessions USC's passing game gets.

COVERAGE

  • WIS: 171.2 passing yards allowed per game to USC's 239

    67.8 YPG

    USC is at 239 passing yards allowed per game over 7 games; WIS is at 171.2 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 23.

REPLACEMENT

  • Terrell Anderson (WR) is out for USC

    OUT

    WR #9 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Corey Simms (WR) is out for USC

    OUT

    WR #10 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Kendarius Reddick (S) is out for USC

    OUT

    S #23 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Taylor "Taybo" Johnson (LB) is out for USC

    OUT

    LB #50 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Roman Marchetti (LB) is out for USC

    OUT

    LB #57 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Kilian O'Connor (OL) is out for USC

    OUT

    OL #67 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Cai Bates (CB) is out for WIS

    OUT

    CB #3 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

SITUATIONAL

  • USC: 310.1 team passing yards per game to WIS's 199.7

    110.5 YPG

    USC is throwing for 310.1 yards a game through 7 games, close to its 296 last season, so this passing offense is real. Wisconsin is at 199.7, up from 136.4 last season. USC's number should hold, while Wisconsin's jump may cool. Expect USC to lean on the pass at Wisconsin.

  • USC has 7 more days of rest

    14d vs 7d

    USC travels to Wisconsin on 14 days of rest after a bye, while Wisconsin plays on a normal seven-day week. The bye takes some of the sting out of the road trip, giving USC time to recover and game-plan specifically for this opponent. Wisconsin keeps home field, which offsets part of that edge. Treat USC's rest as something that narrows the usual road disadvantage.

  • USC: 25.3 first downs per game to WIS's 17.2

    8.1 FD

    USC moves the chains 25.3 times a game over 7 games, Wisconsin 17.2 over 6. Both are close to or above last season, USC at 23.7 and Wisconsin up from 14.1, so USC's ability to sustain drives looks steady. On the road, USC likely controls possession time, which leaves Wisconsin fewer chances to catch up.

TEAM RECORD

  • Big Ten game: USC 3-1, WIS 2-1 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the Big Ten. USC is 3-1 against it, WIS is 2-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-24.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betmgm, caesars, betrivers, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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