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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 24 · 3:30 PM

Tennessee Volunteers at South Carolina Gamecocks

O/U 50.5 · SPREAD South Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 · Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC

GARY'S PICK
Tennessee Moneyline
NCAAF@ South Carolina· +106

Tennessee
Moneyline

+106 · LOST · TENN 24 · SC 27

South Carolina

The pick & result

Published pick
Tennessee Volunteers ML +106
Published odds
+106
Result
Lost
Final score
24-27

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 66 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 18 12:32 PM
Close
Sat 3:16 PM
Move
SPREADSouth Carolina Gamecocks +2 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)+½
TOTAL49.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)+1
MONEYLINESouth Carolina Gamecocks +105South Carolina Gamecocks -135−240
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 18 12:32 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks +2 (-110)49.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks +105 · Tennessee Volunteers -125
Oct 18 3:02 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks +2 (-108)49.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks +110 · Tennessee Volunteers -130
Oct 18 4:03 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks +2 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks +105 · Tennessee Volunteers -125
Oct 18 5:03 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks +1.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks +100 · Tennessee Volunteers -120
Oct 18 6:03 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks +1.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -102 · Tennessee Volunteers -118
Oct 18 9:04 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -1 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -115 · Tennessee Volunteers -105
Oct 18 10:04 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-110)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -125 · Tennessee Volunteers +105
Oct 19 12:34 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-110)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +105
Oct 19 6:00 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-115)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 19 8:31 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-115)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +105
Oct 19 9:31 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-115)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 19 11:31 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 19 12:31 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 19 2:31 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -140 · Tennessee Volunteers +115
Oct 19 3:31 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -140 · Tennessee Volunteers +115
Oct 19 4:31 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -140 · Tennessee Volunteers +115
Oct 19 5:31 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 19 11:25 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-115)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 20 6:31 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-112)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 20 7:02 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-105)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 20 8:38 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-118)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 20 1:15 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 20 1:46 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 20 4:47 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 20 6:17 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 21 10:01 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 21 10:32 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-118)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 21 12:02 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Oct 21 11:22 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Thu 7:00 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Thu 9:00 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Thu 11:58 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-112)50.5 (-112)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Thu 12:28 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-112)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Thu 12:58 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +115
Thu 3:29 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Thu 3:59 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Thu 4:29 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Thu 5:23 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Fri 4:45 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-112)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Fri 8:31 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-110)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Fri 10:31 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Fri 12:02 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Fri 4:39 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Fri 6:21 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Fri 6:31 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-112)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Fri 9:44 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Fri 10:04 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-112)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -140 · Tennessee Volunteers +115
Fri 10:14 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 4:45 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 8:00 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 9:51 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-118)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 10:32 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-118)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 10:42 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 10:53 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 11:23 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 11:43 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 11:53 AMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 12:24 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +115
Sat 12:34 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 12:44 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 12:54 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 1:04 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2 (-118)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 1:14 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 1:45 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 2:06 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-108)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -130 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
Sat 3:06 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110
CLOSESat 3:16 PMSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)South Carolina Gamecocks -135 · Tennessee Volunteers +110

The read

No. 11 Tennessee comes into Williams-Brice for a 3:30 kickoff six days after beating Alabama, and somehow South Carolina is the favorite. I'll take the Vols to win it.

Start with the best unit on the field, Jim Knowles's Tennessee defense. Alabama scores 39.3 a game and got 10 in Knoxville: 26 runs for 54, 2-of-13 on third down, five sacks. Texas ran 36 times for 61. Arkansas went 2-of-11 on third down. That's four straight SEC opponents stuck on third down, not one good night.

South Carolina's defense hasn't stopped anyone good through the air. Alabama went 21-of-27 for 365, Florida 27-of-36 for 267, Kentucky 28-of-41 for 272, and Mississippi State threw five touchdowns. Those are strong offenses, but none of them had to work. Quay'sheed Scott sitting out isn't a new hole, because Scott missed Florida too.

Tennessee's offense is DeSean Bishop: 34 carries for 220 against Auburn, 32 for 159 against Alabama. George MacIntyre has won all three starts without carrying the load. Bishop runs into a defense that has given SEC teams 120 to 135 rushing yards, which keeps MacIntyre out of obvious passing downs.

South Carolina's 3-3 cuts both ways. The Gamecocks blew halftime leads against Kentucky and Mississippi State with turnovers. But their best win, 38-19 at Florida, rode three takeaways on roughly even yardage. That's an average SEC team.

What I'm not weighing: - Tennessee's six season-ending injuries, since that same roster beat Alabama - Heupel not naming a quarterback - Carter Miller coming back while Seth Smith is out - The bye-week and letdown stories - The Alabama common-opponent comparison, which stacks two noisy games

The danger is real. LaNorris Sellers ran for 147 against Kentucky, and Auburn's Byrum Brown led a run game that went 32 carries for 186 against this defense. MacIntyre threw three picks across the last two games. If Tennessee gives away possessions and Sellers gets loose, South Carolina wins this one.

But the market has these teams about even on a neutral field, and Tennessee is the better team. When the better team is getting plus money, I'll take it straight up.

Injuries noted

Tennessee Volunteers: Ethan Davis (out) — TE #0 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Joakim Dodson (out) — WR #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jaedon Harmon (out) — LB #12 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Edrees Farooq (out) — DB #15 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Dylan Lewis (out) — DB #24 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Wendell Moe Jr. (out) — OL #75 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

South Carolina Gamecocks: Quay'sheed Scott (out) — DB #12 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jayden Sellers (out) — WR #17 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jawarn Howell (doubtful) — RB #22 listed Doubtful on the SEC Update 2 report; Kobby Sakyi-Prah (out) — EDG #41 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Carter Miller (probable) — OL #50 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Josiah Thompson (out) — OL #74 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Seth Smith (out) — OL #78 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • George MacIntyre is TENN's projected starter

    7.40 Y/A

    George MacIntyre is TENN's projected starting quarterback. October 23 reporting expects MacIntyre to start against South Carolina. Josh Heupel had declined to publicly name a starter; this remains a projection. 2026 line: 592 passing yards, 66.3% completions, 7.40 yards per attempt, 2-3 TD-INT over 5 games.

  • LaNorris Sellers is SC's projected starter

    7.21 Y/A

    LaNorris Sellers is SC's projected starting quarterback. In his October 21 Tennessee-week press conference, Kendal Briles discussed Sellers as the team's quarterback for this matchup. The retrieved dated report does not explicitly announce the starter. 2026 line: 1333 passing yards, 61.6% completions, 7.21 yards per attempt, 11-4 TD-INT over 6 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • TENN: 14.7 points allowed per game to SC's 25.5

    10.8 PPG

    Tennessee is allowing 14.7 points a game over 7 games, while South Carolina gives up 25.5 over 6. Tennessee has made a big jump from 28.8 last season, so some regression is possible, and South Carolina has gotten worse from 22.1. On the road, Tennessee's improved defense still holds the clearer edge.

TURNOVERS

  • TENN: 1.71 takeaways per game to SC's 0.83

    0.88 TO

    TENN is at 1.71 takeaways per game over 7 games; SC is at 0.83 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 23.

MISMATCH

  • TENN: 14.7 points allowed a game to SC's 25.5

    14.7 VS 25.5

    Tennessee allows 14.7 points a game through seven games, down from 28.8 last season, a dramatic defensive turnaround. South Carolina allows 25.5 over six games, worse than last season's 22.1. A swing that big over seven games points to real change, though it may settle a bit. Tennessee travels to South Carolina, where the home side's offense has to find points against a defense that has been far stingier, which matters when looking at the total.

COVERAGE

  • TENN: 159.3 passing yards allowed per game to SC's 234.2

    74.9 YPG

    TENN is at 159.3 passing yards allowed per game over 7 games; SC is at 234.2 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 23.

REPLACEMENT

  • Ethan Davis (TE) is out for TENN

    OUT

    TE #0 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Joakim Dodson (WR) is out for TENN

    OUT

    WR #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Jaedon Harmon (LB) is out for TENN

    OUT

    LB #12 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Edrees Farooq (DB) is out for TENN

    OUT

    DB #15 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Dylan Lewis (DB) is out for TENN

    OUT

    DB #24 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Wendell Moe Jr. (OL) is out for TENN

    OUT

    OL #75 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Quay'sheed Scott (DB) is out for SC

    OUT

    DB #12 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Jayden Sellers (WR) is out for SC

    OUT

    WR #17 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Kobby Sakyi-Prah (DE) is out for SC

    OUT

    EDG #41 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Josiah Thompson (OL) is out for SC

    OUT

    OL #74 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Seth Smith (OL) is out for SC

    OUT

    OL #78 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

SITUATIONAL

  • SC has 7 more days of rest

    7d vs 14d

    Tennessee plays on a normal week while South Carolina comes off a bye with 14 days and the home crowd. In a conference game, an extra week to study film and get players healthy is a meaningful prep edge. Tennessee's seven days is routine, so this is about South Carolina's added prep more than any Tennessee fatigue. Factor it in as a modest bump for the home side.

TEAM RECORD

  • SEC game: TENN 3-1, SC 1-3 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the SEC. TENN is 3-1 against it, SC is 1-3. 2026 standings through 2026-10-24.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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