Skip to content
GARY A.I.Get the app
NCAAF · Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 PM

LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers

O/U 52.5 · SPREAD LSU Tigers -7.5 · Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL

GARY'S PICK
Auburn +7.5
NCAAFvs LSU· -118

Auburn
+7.5

-118 · LOST · LSU 38 · AUB 17

LSU

The pick & result

Published pick
Auburn Tigers +7.5 -118
Published odds
-118
Result
Lost
Final score
38-17

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 64 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 18 1:02 PM
Close
Sat 11:53 AM
Move
SPREADLSU Tigers -7 (-108)LSU Tigers -7 (-115)Price
TOTAL50.5 (-110)52.5 (-108)+2
MONEYLINELSU Tigers -250LSU Tigers -285−35
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 18 1:02 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-108)50.5 (-110)LSU Tigers -250 · Auburn Tigers +200
Oct 18 2:02 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-110)50.5 (-110)LSU Tigers -235 · Auburn Tigers +200
Oct 18 4:03 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-108)50.5 (-112)LSU Tigers -235 · Auburn Tigers +200
Oct 18 5:03 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-108)50.5 (-112)LSU Tigers -250 · Auburn Tigers +200
Oct 18 6:03 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-108)49.5 (-108)LSU Tigers -275 · Auburn Tigers +210
Oct 18 7:04 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-115)49.5 (-108)LSU Tigers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220
Oct 18 8:04 PM—49.5 (-108)LSU Tigers -300 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 18 10:04 PMLSU Tigers -8.5 (-108)49.5 (-108)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 19 6:00 AMLSU Tigers -8.5 (-108)50.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -325 · Auburn Tigers +260
Oct 19 7:31 AMLSU Tigers -8.5 (-108)49.5 (-110)LSU Tigers -300 · Auburn Tigers +250
Oct 19 9:31 AMLSU Tigers -8.5 (-108)50.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -325 · Auburn Tigers +260
Oct 19 11:31 AMLSU Tigers -8.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)LSU Tigers -325 · Auburn Tigers +270
Oct 19 2:31 PMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)LSU Tigers -300 · Auburn Tigers +250
Oct 19 3:31 PMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)LSU Tigers -300 · Auburn Tigers +250
Oct 19 4:31 PMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-110)50.5 (-112)LSU Tigers -300 · Auburn Tigers +250
Oct 19 6:31 PMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-108)50.5 (-118)LSU Tigers -300 · Auburn Tigers +250
Oct 19 7:01 PMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-102)50.5 (-118)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 19 8:31 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-118)50.5 (-118)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 19 10:24 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-115)50.5 (-118)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 20 12:55 AMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-102)50.5 (-118)LSU Tigers -300 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 20 6:31 AMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-102)50.5 (-118)LSU Tigers -300 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 20 8:38 AMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-105)50.5 (-118)LSU Tigers -300 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 21 6:01 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-120)50.5 (-125)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 21 7:00 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-120)50.5 (-118)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 21 12:32 PMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-105)50.5 (-115)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 21 2:02 PMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-105)50.5 (-118)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 21 4:02 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-120)50.5 (-118)LSU Tigers -300 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 21 4:32 PMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-105)50.5 (-115)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 21 5:32 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-120)50.5 (-112)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 21 8:21 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-120)50.5 (-112)LSU Tigers -300 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 21 9:21 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-120)50.5 (-112)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 21 9:51 PMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-105)50.5 (-115)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 22 12:52 AMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-105)50.5 (-112)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Oct 22 6:00 AMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-105)50.5 (-115)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Thu 7:00 AMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-105)50.5 (-115)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Thu 8:30 AMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-105)50.5 (-115)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Thu 9:00 AMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-105)50.5 (-112)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Thu 10:27 AMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-105)50.5 (-118)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Thu 12:28 PMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-105)50.5 (-118)LSU Tigers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240
Thu 2:29 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-108)51.5 (-102)LSU Tigers -275 · Auburn Tigers +225
Thu 3:59 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-108)51.5 (-102)LSU Tigers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220
Thu 7:24 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-112)51.5 (-102)LSU Tigers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220
Fri 4:45 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-112)51.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220
Fri 8:31 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-110)51.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220
Fri 11:01 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-112)51.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220
Fri 1:32 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-112)51.5 (-108)LSU Tigers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220
Fri 2:02 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-120)51.5 (-108)LSU Tigers -275 · Auburn Tigers +225
Fri 3:02 PMLSU Tigers -7.5 (-105)51.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Fri 7:01 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-115)51.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Fri 8:43 PMLSU Tigers -7 (-112)51.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 4:45 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-112)51.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 7:00 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-115)51.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 9:00 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-115)51.5 (-108)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 9:07 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-115)51.5 (-108)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 9:21 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-112)51.5 (-108)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 9:41 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-112)51.5 (-110)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 10:11 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-112)51.5 (-112)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 10:17 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-112)52.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 10:21 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-112)52.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 10:32 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-112)52.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 10:42 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-112)52.5 (-108)LSU Tigers -275 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 11:00 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-115)52.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 11:13 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-115)52.5 (-105)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230
Sat 11:33 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-115)52.5 (-108)LSU Tigers -275 · Auburn Tigers +230
CLOSESat 11:53 AMLSU Tigers -7 (-115)52.5 (-108)LSU Tigers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230

The read

Two sets of Tigers meet at Jordan-Hare at 11 a.m. Central under clear skies. Auburn is coming off a road win at Georgia, and LSU is laying 7.5 points.

LSU's scores look better than its play against good teams. Its blowouts came against offenses that struggle to score: Clemson ranks 112th in scoring and Texas A&M 63rd. Mississippi State's shutout came with an 0-for-5 day on fourth down. LSU has faced two good offenses, both on the road. Ole Miss threw for 363, and Kentucky ran for 155 and threw for 246. LSU lost both.

Whit Weeks being out hurts LSU exactly where Auburn is strongest. With Weeks playing, Clemson, Ole Miss and A&M ran for 40, 63 and 91 yards. Since Weeks went out, Kentucky ran for 155 and Mississippi State for 170. Some of that is the opponents, but it matters most against a team built on Byrum Brown running the ball: 26 runs for 115 at Georgia and 19 for 107 at Tennessee.

Auburn's passing game is the real risk. Brown threw for 150, 159 and 140 yards in the last three games, with an interception in four of the five games with full stats. Auburn also gave up seven sacks against Florida and five each against Georgia and Baylor. LSU's pass defense held Mississippi State to 121 yards and A&M to 106. If Auburn falls behind on down and distance, this game gets away from it.

Losing Xavier Atkins hurts Auburn: 7.5 tackles for loss in four games. But Atkins already missed the Georgia game, and the line accounts for it. The Georgia win itself came mostly from turnovers: Auburn took the ball away three times without giving it away once, while Georgia threw for 327. It shows Auburn can stay close with good teams, not that it is one.

Ignore the talk of a post-Georgia letdown, the crowd noise and the rivalry; the line was set with all of it known. LSU is the better team, by about a touchdown on the road. Auburn's running game against a defense missing Weeks is the underdog's best matchup. A small play on Auburn.

Injuries noted

LSU Tigers: Whit Weeks (out) — LB #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Dashawn Spears (out) — S #10 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Phillip Wright III (out) — WR #15 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Charles Ross II (out) — LB #26 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Richard Anderson (out) — DT #88 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

Auburn Tigers: Tai Buster (out) — OL #71 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Hunter Herring (out) — TE #85 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Saint Farrior (out) — DL #99 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Sam Leavitt is LSU's projected starter

    8.45 Y/A

    Sam Leavitt is LSU's projected starting quarterback. The October 22 game preview discusses Leavitt leading LSU against Auburn. A successfully retrieved current-week team declaration confirming the starter was not established. 2026 line: 1774 passing yards, 70.0% completions, 8.45 yards per attempt, 14-8 TD-INT over 7 games.

  • Byrum Brown is AUB's projected starter

    6.53 Y/A

    Byrum Brown is AUB's projected starting quarterback. The October 22 game preview discusses Brown as Auburn's quarterback against LSU. A successfully retrieved current-week team declaration confirming the starter was not established. 2026 line: 1202 passing yards, 64.1% completions, 6.53 yards per attempt, 8-7 TD-INT over 6 games.

TRENCHES

  • LSU: 87.9 rushing yards allowed per game to AUB's 142.3

    54.5 YPG

    LSU is at 87.9 rushing yards allowed per game over 7 games; AUB is at 142.3 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 23.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • LSU: 40.4 points per game to AUB's 26.8

    13.6 PPG

    LSU has nearly doubled last season's 22.8 points a game, and Auburn is right at last year's 26.8. The gap is all LSU's improvement, which lines up with its passing jump. Auburn's offense is steady, so this comes down to whether Auburn can slow that LSU passing game at home.

  • LSU: 32:55 time of possession per game to AUB's 26:54

    6:01 TOP

    LSU holds the ball about six minutes longer per game than Auburn this season. LSU is up from 30:16 last season, and Auburn is down from 29:26, so both have moved apart. If LSU controls the clock again, Auburn gets fewer possessions at home, which can keep scoring down. Fewer drives makes the total the place to think about this edge.

MISMATCH

  • LSU: 306.4 pass yards a game to AUB's 211.7

    306.4 VS 211.7

    LSU throws for 306.4 yards a game over 7 games, a big jump from 229.5 last season. Auburn is at 211.7, a bit above its 197.1 last year. LSU's leap may cool over a full season, but seven games is enough to take the passing attack seriously. Auburn has to pressure the quarterback and keep LSU behind the chains on the road, while using its own clock control to limit how many times LSU gets the ball.

COVERAGE

  • LSU: 165.1 passing yards allowed per game to AUB's 228

    62.9 YPG

    LSU is at 165.1 passing yards allowed per game over 7 games; AUB is at 228 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 23.

REPLACEMENT

  • Whit Weeks (LB) is out for LSU

    OUT

    LB #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Dashawn Spears (S) is out for LSU

    OUT

    S #10 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Phillip Wright III (WR) is out for LSU

    OUT

    WR #15 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Charles Ross II (LB) is out for LSU

    OUT

    LB #26 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Richard Anderson (DT) is out for LSU

    OUT

    DT #88 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Tai Buster (OL) is out for AUB

    OUT

    OL #71 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Hunter Herring (TE) is out for AUB

    OUT

    TE #85 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Saint Farrior (DL) is out for AUB

    OUT

    DL #99 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

SITUATIONAL

  • LSU: 306.4 team passing yards per game to AUB's 211.7

    94.8 YPG

    LSU's passing game has taken a big leap from 229.5 yards a game last season, while Auburn sits only a bit above its 197.1. Seven games is enough to say LSU has changed how it attacks, leaning on the throw. Auburn's lower passing output means it likely needs to win on the ground and shorten the game to keep LSU's passing attack off the field.

TEAM RECORD

  • SEC game: LSU 2-2, AUB 2-2 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the SEC. LSU is 2-2 against it, AUB is 2-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-24.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every NCAAF game this dayThe NCAAF recordToday's NCAAF picksEvery sport this day