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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 24 · 7:00 PM

Colorado Buffaloes at Oklahoma State Cowboys

O/U 54.5 · SPREAD Oklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 · Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK

GARY'S PICK
Colorado +13.5
NCAAF@ Oklahoma State· -115

Colorado
+13.5

-115 · LOST · COLO 24 · OKST 57

Oklahoma State

The pick & result

Published pick
Colorado Buffaloes +13.5 -115
Published odds
-115
Result
Lost
Final score
24-57

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 55 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 18 1:02 PM
Close
Sat 6:39 PM
Move
SPREADOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-108)−½
TOTAL54.5 (-110)55.5 (-105)+1
MONEYLINEOklahoma State Cowboys -600Oklahoma State Cowboys -550+50
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 18 1:02 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -600 · Colorado Buffaloes +450
Oct 18 2:02 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Oct 18 3:02 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)54.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -600 · Colorado Buffaloes +450
Oct 18 4:03 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Oct 18 5:03 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-110)54.5 (-118)Oklahoma State Cowboys -600 · Colorado Buffaloes +450
Oct 18 6:03 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-110)55.5 (-102)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Oct 18 7:04 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)55.5 (-108)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Oct 18 8:04 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-110)55.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Oct 18 9:04 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)55.5 (-112)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Oct 18 10:04 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)56.5 (-108)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Oct 18 11:34 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)55.5 (-118)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Oct 19 6:00 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)55.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Oct 19 12:31 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-110)55.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Oct 19 2:31 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-108)55.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 19 4:31 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -12.5 (-110)55.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 19 5:31 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -12.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Oklahoma State Cowboys -500 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 19 6:31 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-108)55.5 (-108)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 19 9:01 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-108)55.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 20 12:25 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-108)56.5 (-105)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 20 6:00 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -12.5 (-110)56.5 (-105)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 20 7:32 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -12.5 (-110)55.5 (-115)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 20 8:38 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-112)56.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 20 2:16 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-112)55.5 (-112)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 20 3:17 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -12.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 20 3:47 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-112)55.5 (-112)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 20 4:47 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -12.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 20 5:17 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-112)55.5 (-112)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 20 5:47 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -12.5 (-112)55.5 (-120)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 20 6:47 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -12.5 (-112)56.5 (-108)Oklahoma State Cowboys -500 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 21 8:30 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -12.5 (-110)56.5 (-105)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 21 11:32 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -12.5 (-118)56.5 (-105)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 21 2:02 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -12.5 (-118)56.5 (-105)Oklahoma State Cowboys -500 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 21 4:32 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-108)56.5 (-105)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 21 7:51 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-108)56.5 (-108)Oklahoma State Cowboys -500 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Oct 22 6:00 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-108)56.5 (-108)Oklahoma State Cowboys -500 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Thu 9:00 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-108)56.5 (-108)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Thu 10:27 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-108)55.5 (-112)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Thu 12:28 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-112)56.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -600 · Colorado Buffaloes +450
Thu 3:59 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-112)55.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -600 · Colorado Buffaloes +450
Thu 6:23 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-112)56.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -600 · Colorado Buffaloes +450
Fri 4:45 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-110)56.5 (-105)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Fri 10:31 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Fri 4:39 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Fri 8:33 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Sat 6:30 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Sat 8:30 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Sat 9:00 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -525 · Colorado Buffaloes +400
Sat 9:41 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)55.5 (-110)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Sat 10:32 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)54.5 (-115)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Sat 10:53 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-110)54.5 (-112)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Sat 11:00 AMOklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 (-108)54.5 (-112)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Sat 5:39 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -12.5 (-110)54.5 (-112)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Sat 5:59 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-108)55.5 (-108)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Sat 6:09 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-110)55.5 (-108)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
Sat 6:19 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-108)55.5 (-108)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425
CLOSESat 6:39 PMOklahoma State Cowboys -13 (-108)55.5 (-105)Oklahoma State Cowboys -550 · Colorado Buffaloes +425

The read

It's homecoming in Stillwater, Colorado's first trip here since 2009, and Oklahoma State is laying 13.5 to a 2-4 team. That record is the whole case for the favorite, and it's misleading.

Colorado has played a brutal schedule. Utah, Northwestern, Baylor and Texas Tech all rank in the top 30 nationally in points allowed. Since Isaac Wilson took over at quarterback, the Buffaloes have played good teams close to even, snap for snap. Against unbeaten No. 10 Utah, Colorado ran 24 times for 138 yards, threw for 256 and gained more per play than the Utes in a 24-27 loss. The 7-29 loss to No. 8 Texas Tech came with four interceptions, one of them returned for a touchdown, plus two missed field goals. The yardage was far closer than that score.

Drew Mestemaker is the best player on the field. He threw for 365, 304, 389 and 317 yards in his last four FBS games. But those came against defenses ranked 47th, 61st, 130th and 63rd. Oklahoma State's own defense is ordinary. Houston threw for 343 yards and five touchdowns against it, and safety Mose Phillips III is now out for the season. Joseph Williams (37 catches, 508 yards) and the Colorado receivers can move the ball on that secondary.

Lamont Lester Jr. is listed probable. He has 4 sacks in only 3 games and hasn't played since mid-September. That puts a real pass rusher across from an offense that went 2-of-10 on third down at West Virginia and 5-of-17 against Oregon.

What doesn't matter: Micah Welch is out, but he had one carry against Utah. The homecoming and first-trip-in-years stories are already in the line. Rest and weather are even.

The risk is real. Wilson threw three interceptions against Texas Tech and two more against Utah, and turnovers are how Oklahoma State gets to 14. But the Cowboys have beaten an FBS team by two touchdowns only twice: against West Virginia's 130th-ranked defense, and against UCF with a fumble-return touchdown helping. I see a one-score home win, not a two-touchdown one.

Colorado +13.5.

Injuries noted

Colorado Buffaloes: Kam Perry (out) — WR #7 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Danny Scudero (out) — WR #18 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Braylon Edwards (out) — DB #26 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Micah Welch (out) — RB #29 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Preston Ashley (probable) — CB #31 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Bo Hughley (probable) — OL #55 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Lamont Lester Jr. (probable) — DL #56 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Sam Gadie (out) — DE #92 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report

Oklahoma State Cowboys: Dayvon Standard (questionable) — WR #19 listed Questionable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Gunnar Wilson (probable) — LB #50 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Landon Dean (out) — DT #88 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Isaac Wilson is COLO's projected starter

    6.94 Y/A

    Isaac Wilson is COLO's projected starting quarterback. October 22 reporting explicitly expects Wilson to start against Oklahoma State. The opened team press-conference report expresses Sanders' confidence in Wilson but does not explicitly announce this game's starter. 2026 line: 701 passing yards, 57.4% completions, 6.94 yards per attempt, 4-5 TD-INT over 4 games.

  • Drew Mestemaker is OKST's confirmed starter

    9.56 Y/A

    Drew Mestemaker is OKST's confirmed starting quarterback. October 20 reporting reproduces Oklahoma State's official depth chart for the October 24 Colorado game and lists Mestemaker as QB1. 2026 line: 1940 passing yards, 67.0% completions, 9.56 yards per attempt, 16-6 TD-INT over 6 games.

TRENCHES

  • OKST: 188.2 rushing yards per game to COLO's 140

    48.2 YPG

    COLO is at 140 rushing yards per game over 6 games; OKST is at 188.2 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season COLO was at 125.6 over 12 games and OKST at 118.3 over 12 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • OKST: 37.2 points per game to COLO's 19.5

    17.7 PPG

    Oklahoma State is scoring 37.2 points a game through 6 games, a giant jump from 14.2 last season. Colorado is at 19.5, near its 20.9. A swing that large in six games often reflects the schedule, so expect some cooling. Colorado's scoring looks steady, so the question for this game is whether Oklahoma State's offense keeps rolling at home.

  • OKST: 30:13 time of possession per game to COLO's 25:01

    5:12 TOP

    COLO is at 25:01 time of possession per game over 6 games; OKST is at 30:13 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season COLO was at 28:50 over 12 games and OKST at 28:46 over 12 games.

  • COLO @ OKST carries a 56.5 market total

    56.5

    At 56.5, Colorado at Oklahoma State is 5 points above the median, a modest lean toward a higher-scoring game. The sheet gives no reason behind it. A few stalled drives would be enough to bring it down, since the gap to a normal game is small. This is a total where red-zone results matter more than yardage.

MISMATCH

  • OKST: 329.5 pass yards a game to COLO's 254.2

    329.5 VS 254.2

    Oklahoma State throws for 329.5 yards a game through six games, nearly double last season's 174.1. That is a huge jump in one offseason. Colorado improved too, from 202.8 to 254.2, but is well behind. A leap that big over six games may cool off some, but it shows the offense now runs through the passing game. At home, Oklahoma State can try to turn this into a shootout, and the question for bettors is whether Colorado can keep up through the air.

REPLACEMENT

  • Kam Perry (WR) is out for COLO

    OUT

    WR #7 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Danny Scudero (WR) is out for COLO

    OUT

    WR #18 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Braylon Edwards (DB) is out for COLO

    OUT

    DB #26 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Micah Welch (RB) is out for COLO

    OUT

    RB #29 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Sam Gadie (DE) is out for COLO

    OUT

    DE #92 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Landon Dean (DT) is out for OKST

    OUT

    DT #88 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

SITUATIONAL

  • OKST: 329.5 team passing yards per game to COLO's 254.2

    75.3 YPG

    Both of these offenses throw it, with Oklahoma State at 329.5 passing yards a game and Colorado at 254.2, each over 6 games. Oklahoma State has nearly doubled its 174.1 from last season, a change big enough that the schedule may be helping. Colorado is also up from 202.8. A game between two pass-heavy teams tends to push yardage and pace up, so passing props and totals are where this gap matters most.

  • OKST: 52.2 penalty yards per game to COLO's 84.3

    32.2 YDS

    COLO is at 84.3 penalty yards per game over 6 games; OKST is at 52.2 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season COLO was at 54.5 over 12 games and OKST at 47.3 over 12 games.

TEAM RECORD

  • OKST is 3-0 at home; COLO is 1-2 on the road

    3-0

    Oklahoma State has won all three games in its own building, while Colorado has dropped two of three away from home. Three games on each side is a small sample, so neither record says much on its own about who these teams are. Put together, they point the same way for this spot: Colorado has yet to show it travels well, and Oklahoma State has yet to lose at home. A bettor can lean on that as a tiebreaker when the rest of the matchup looks close.

  • Big 12 game: COLO 0-3, OKST 2-1 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the Big 12. COLO is 0-3 against it, OKST is 2-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-24.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betrivers, draftkings, betmgm, caesars, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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