California Golden Bears at SMU Mustangs

Injuries noted

California Golden Bears: Dorian Thomas (out) — TE #0 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Carter Vargas (out) — RB #1 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jordan King (doubtful) — WR #4 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report; Ian Strong (probable) — WR #9 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report; Cooper Perry (doubtful) — WR #10 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report; Mark Hamper (doubtful) — WR #15 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report; Adam Mohammed (out) — RB #24 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jericho Johnson (probable) — DL #44 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report; Kahlee Tafai (out) — OL #51 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Sioape Vatikani (probable) — OL #71 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report; Bastian Swinney (doubtful) — OL #76 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report; Jimothy Lewis Jr. (doubtful) — OL #77 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report; Nate Burrell (out) — DL #98 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report

SMU Mustangs: Dramekco Green (out) — RB #4 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Ahmaad Moses (out) — S #7 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Ira Singleton IV (out) — DE #9 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Tyren Polley Jr. (out) — S #10 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Carterrious Brown (out) — WR #11 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jaelyn Davis-Robinson (out) — CB #13 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Trey Wilson (out) — DE #14 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Link Rhodes (out) — RB #24 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; I'Zayah Young (out) — LB #25 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Tyron Winslow (doubtful) — DL #56 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report; Abel Hoopii (out) — OL #58 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Nick Reed (questionable) — K #99 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report

QUARTERBACK

• Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is CAL's projected starter

  7.09 Y/A

  Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is CAL's projected starting quarterback. The October 22 game-specific report expects Sagapolutele to start against SMU but explicitly says Tosh Lupoi has not announced a choice between him and Jackson Brousseau. 2026 line: 1290 passing yards, 67.0% completions, 7.09 yards per attempt, 9-5 TD-INT over 6 games.

• Kevin Jennings is SMU's confirmed starter

  9.68 Y/A

  Kevin Jennings is SMU's confirmed starting quarterback. SMU's October 20 game release identifies Jennings as its starter; the October 23 conference preview also discusses him as the Mustangs' starter entering the California game. 2026 line: 1859 passing yards, 72.9% completions, 9.68 yards per attempt, 16-5 TD-INT over 6 games.

TRENCHES

• SMU: 138.2 rushing yards allowed per game to CAL's 181.1

  43 YPG

  SMU's run defense has given up about 43 fewer yards a game on the ground than Cal's, across six games against seven for Cal. There is no opponent breakdown here, so how much of that gap comes from who each side has faced is unknown. Six games is enough to take the difference seriously. With SMU at home, the Mustangs have the steadier front, and a Cal game plan that leans on the run is the spot most likely to stall.

PACE & SCRIPT

• SMU: 32.7 points per game to CAL's 23.9

  8.8 PPG

  SMU puts up about nine more points a game than Cal, and it lines up with last season, when SMU scored 32.2 and Cal 25.3. Cal has actually dipped a bit this year, so the gap is wider than usual. Six and seven games is a decent read on both, and SMU's number has been steady across two seasons. At home, SMU is the side more likely to set the scoring pace, so think about whether Cal's offense can keep up if this turns into a shootout.

MISMATCH

• SMU: 141.5 rush yards a game to CAL's 90.3

  141.5 VS 90.3

  SMU runs for 141.5 yards a game through six games, close to last season's 133.8. Cal sits at 90.3 over seven games, a little better than 81.7 last season but still a weak ground game. Both numbers look stable against last season, so the gap should hold. At home, SMU can lean on the run, while Cal likely has to throw to move the ball.

COVERAGE

• SMU: 26.5% third downs allowed to CAL's 42.4%

  15.9 PP

  SMU holds opponents to 26.5% on third down over six games, and Cal allows 42.4% over seven. A 15.9-point gap over that many games points to a real difference in getting off the field. The sheet doesn't show who either side faced. Cal drives are more likely to end in punts, which matters for unders on Cal and for SMU winning time of possession.

REPLACEMENT

• Dorian Thomas (TE) is out for CAL

  OUT

  TE #0 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Carter Vargas (RB) is out for CAL

  OUT

  RB #1 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Adam Mohammed (RB) is out for CAL

  OUT

  RB #24 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Kahlee Tafai (OL) is out for CAL

  OUT

  OL #51 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Nate Burrell (DL) is out for CAL

  OUT

  DL #98 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Dramekco Green (RB) is out for SMU

  OUT

  RB #4 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Ahmaad Moses (S) is out for SMU

  OUT

  S #7 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Ira Singleton IV (DE) is out for SMU

  OUT

  DE #9 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Tyren Polley Jr. (S) is out for SMU

  OUT

  S #10 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Carterrious Brown (WR) is out for SMU

  OUT

  WR #11 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Jaelyn Davis-Robinson (CB) is out for SMU

  OUT

  CB #13 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Trey Wilson (DE) is out for SMU

  OUT

  DE #14 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Link Rhodes (RB) is out for SMU

  OUT

  RB #24 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• I'Zayah Young (LB) is out for SMU

  OUT

  LB #25 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Abel Hoopii (OL) is out for SMU

  OUT

  OL #58 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Jordan King (WR) is doubtful for CAL

  DOUBTFUL

  WR #4 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Tyron Winslow (DL) is doubtful for SMU

  DOUBTFUL

  DL #56 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Jimothy Lewis Jr. (OL) is doubtful for CAL

  DOUBTFUL

  OL #77 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Bastian Swinney (OL) is doubtful for CAL

  DOUBTFUL

  OL #76 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Mark Hamper (WR) is doubtful for CAL

  DOUBTFUL

  WR #15 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

• Cooper Perry (WR) is doubtful for CAL

  DOUBTFUL

  WR #10 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 21:00:00 ET) (2026-10-23)

TEAM RECORD

• ACC game: CAL 2-2, SMU 3-1 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  SMU is 3-1 in ACC play and Cal is 2-2, so SMU has handled the league better so far. Four conference games each is a small sample, and one result either way reshapes both records. SMU is also at home, which pairs the better league record with the home field. For a bettor, this reads as a modest edge for SMU on form, worth checking against who each team has actually played.