North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils

Injuries noted

North Carolina Tar Heels: Isaiah Johnson (questionable) — DL #0 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Greg Smith III (questionable) — DB #1 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Kaleb Cost (out) — DB #2 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Mason Humphrey (out) — WR #4 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Donovan Hoilette Jr. (probable) — DL #5 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report; Tre Miller (out) — DB #6 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jakob Weatherspoon (out) — DB #17 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Ashton Blatt (out) — LB #35 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Viliami Moala (out) — DL #56 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jordan Hall (questionable) — OL #66 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Jordan Washington (questionable) — TE #80 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Keeyun Chapman (out) — WR #82 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Vodney Cleveland (out) — DL #88 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu (out) — DL #92 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report

Duke Blue Devils: Jamien Little (out) — WR #1 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Blake Rohrer (out) — WR #3 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Evan Smith (questionable) — CB #4 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Lawrence Gardner (out) — QB #16 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Nate Sheppard (questionable) — RB #20 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Qeanu Johnson (out) — WR #21 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Elliott Schaper (out) — LB #31 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Cosme Salas (out) — K #39 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Kai Jacobowitz (out) — OL #65 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Matt Craycraft (questionable) — OL #72 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Reagan McCranie (out) — OL #74 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Roman Fina (out) — OL #79 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report

QUARTERBACK

• Billy Edwards Jr. is UNC's projected starter

  8.09 Y/A

  Billy Edwards Jr. is UNC's projected starting quarterback. The October 15 Duke game preview discusses Edwards as Carolina's quarterback and how Duke must defend him. This supports a projected starter, without an explicit game-day starting announcement. 2026 line: 1068 passing yards, 59.8% completions, 8.09 yards per attempt, 8-5 TD-INT over 5 games.

• Walker Eget is DUKE's projected starter

  7.31 Y/A

  Walker Eget is DUKE's projected starting quarterback. October 16 game-specific reporting discusses Eget leading Duke's passing attack. This supports a projected starter, without an explicit game-day starting announcement. 2026 line: 980 passing yards, 62.7% completions, 7.31 yards per attempt, 7-1 TD-INT over 5 games.

TRENCHES

• DUKE: 84 rushing yards allowed per game to UNC's 152

  68 YPG

  Duke allows 84 rushing yards a game over 5 games, a good run defense. UNC gives up 152 over the same 5 games. The sheet doesn't list opponents, so schedule could shape part of the gap. In a rivalry game, the side that can run reliably often controls the pace, and Duke's front looks like the tougher one to move.

PACE & SCRIPT

• DUKE: 33:40 time of possession per game to UNC's 26:38

  7:02 TOP

  UNC is at 26:38 time of possession per game over 5 games; DUKE is at 33:40 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 16. Last season UNC was at 28:25 over 12 games and DUKE at 29:42 over 14 games.

• DUKE: 34 points per game to UNC's 23.4

  10.6 PPG

  UNC is at 23.4 points per game over 5 games; DUKE is at 34 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 16. Last season UNC was at 19.3 over 12 games and DUKE at 34.6 over 14 games.

TURNOVERS

• DUKE: 0.4 turnovers committed per game to UNC's 1.6

  1.2 TO

  Duke has turned it over less than once every two games across five games, while North Carolina gives it away 1.6 times a game. Duke was at 1 last season, so 0.4 is an outlier likely to rise; North Carolina was at 1.25. At home, Duke's ball security has kept games clean, but expect that number to drift up rather than hold.

MISMATCH

• DUKE: 226.8 rush yards a game to UNC's 112.4

  226.8 VS 112.4

  Duke is running for 226.8 yards a game over five games, a big jump from 138.1 last season. North Carolina sits at 112.4, close to its 105.3 from a year ago, so its number looks stable and Duke's is the one that moved. Five games is a small sample for a jump that size. North Carolina has to stay in front so Duke can keep leaning on the ground and shortening the game.

COVERAGE

• DUKE: 28.3% third downs allowed to UNC's 43.1%

  14.7 PP

  Duke allows 28.3% on third down and UNC allows 43.1%, each over five games. Duke gets off the field and UNC leaves the door open. There is no schedule detail on the sheet, so Duke's rate could be helped by weak offenses. If it holds, UNC drives stall and Duke gets more possessions, which matters for totals and Duke's team total.

REPLACEMENT

• Kaleb Cost (DB) is out for UNC

  OUT

  DB #2 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Mason Humphrey (WR) is out for UNC

  OUT

  WR #4 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Tre Miller (DB) is out for UNC

  OUT

  DB #6 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Jakob Weatherspoon (DB) is out for UNC

  OUT

  DB #17 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Ashton Blatt (LB) is out for UNC

  OUT

  LB #35 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Viliami Moala (DL) is out for UNC

  OUT

  DL #56 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Keeyun Chapman (WR) is out for UNC

  OUT

  WR #82 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Vodney Cleveland (DL) is out for UNC

  OUT

  DL #88 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu (DL) is out for UNC

  OUT

  DL #92 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Jamien Little (WR) is out for DUKE

  OUT

  WR #1 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Blake Rohrer (WR) is out for DUKE

  OUT

  WR #3 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Lawrence Gardner (QB) is out for DUKE

  OUT

  QB #16 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Qeanu Johnson (WR) is out for DUKE

  OUT

  WR #21 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Elliott Schaper (LB) is out for DUKE

  OUT

  LB #31 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Cosme Salas (PK) is out for DUKE

  OUT

  K #39 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Kai Jacobowitz (OL) is out for DUKE

  OUT

  OL #65 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Reagan McCranie (OL) is out for DUKE

  OUT

  OL #74 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

• Roman Fina (OL) is out for DUKE

  OUT

  OL #79 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-16)

SITUATIONAL

• UNC: 27.4 penalty yards per game to DUKE's 75.2

  47.8 YDS

  UNC is giving away very little in penalty yardage through 5 games, while Duke is handing over a lot. Last season the two were dead even, 62.6 for UNC and 62.7 for Duke, so both teams have moved a long way in a short sample and some drift back toward that middle is likely. For this game, Duke's flags matter more at home: drive-extending penalties against Duke's defense could keep UNC on the field longer than its offense would earn on its own.

TEAM RECORD

• ACC game: UNC 1-1, DUKE 1-1 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  North Carolina and Duke are both 1-1 in ACC play, so the conference record gives you nothing to separate them. Two league games each is about as thin as it gets. Duke at home is the only edge the table offers here.