Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers

Injuries noted

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Kamario Taylor (doubtful) — QB #1 listed Doubtful on the SEC Update 2 report; Isaac Smith (probable) — S #2 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Anthony Evans III (probable) — WR #3 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Zakari Tillman (out) — LB #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jalen Smith (out) — LB #10 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Ayden Williams (out) — WR #11 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Trevion Williams (out) — DL #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Fluff Bothwell (doubtful) — RB #24 listed Doubtful on the SEC Update 2 report; DJ Chester (probable) — OL #78 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Diesel Moye (out) — DL #99 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

LSU Tigers: Trey'Dez Green (out) — TE #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Whit Weeks (out) — LB #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Dashawn Spears (out) — S #10 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Phillip Wright III (out) — WR #15 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Tylen Singleton (doubtful) — LB #24 listed Doubtful on the SEC Update 2 report; Charles Ross II (out) — LB #26 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

QUARTERBACK

• Sam Leavitt is LSU's projected starter

  8.63 Y/A

  Sam Leavitt is LSU's projected starting quarterback. The October 16 game preview discusses Leavitt directing LSU against Mississippi State. It does not explicitly announce a confirmed game-day starter. 2026 line: 1485 passing yards, 67.4% completions, 8.63 yards per attempt, 10-8 TD-INT over 6 games.

• Parker Puckett is MSST's projected starter

  PROJECTED

  Parker Puckett is MSST's projected starting quarterback. LSU's October 16 official preview identifies Puckett as the expected starter if Kamario Taylor cannot play. Friday night's availability update downgraded Taylor to doubtful. Puckett's start remains conditional, not confirmed. No verified passing sample is available yet.

PACE & SCRIPT

• LSU: 18.5 points allowed per game to MSST's 28

  9.5 PPG

  LSU is allowing 18.5 points per game over 6 games, nearly identical to last season's 19.8, while Mississippi State is at 28 over 5, a little better than its 30.2. Both numbers look like who these defenses are. At home, LSU's defense is the one more likely to dictate, and Mississippi State's offense will need to break that pattern to stay close.

• MSST @ LSU carries a 56.5 market total

  56.5

  A 56.5 total, 6 points above the 50.5 slate median, says the market expects a fair amount of scoring. Nothing else is supplied. It cracks if the game slows down with long drives that end in field goals or punts. Red-zone finishing is the swing point in a total priced moderately above the median.

MISMATCH

• LSU: 18.5 points allowed a game to MSST's 28

  18.5 VS 28

  LSU allows 18.5 points a game over six games and Mississippi State gives up 28 over five. Both are close to last season, LSU at 19.8 and Mississippi State at 30.2, so these numbers look like who these defenses are. Mississippi State's defense has been soft two years running. At LSU, it likely needs a lot of points, which is a tough spot against this defense.

COVERAGE

• LSU: 172.5 passing yards allowed per game to MSST's 260

  87.5 YPG

  LSU allows 172.5 passing yards a game over 6 games, so opponents haven't thrown well against them. Mississippi State gives up 260 over 5. The sheet doesn't show who either team has faced, so schedule is an open question. At home, LSU's secondary is the steadier unit, and the Bulldogs' pass defense is the one more likely to give up yards.

REPLACEMENT

• Zakari Tillman (LB) is out for MSST

  OUT

  LB #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

• Jalen Smith (LB) is out for MSST

  OUT

  LB #10 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

• Ayden Williams (WR) is out for MSST

  OUT

  WR #11 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

• Trevion Williams (DL) is out for MSST

  OUT

  DL #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

• Diesel Moye (DL) is out for MSST

  OUT

  DL #99 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

• Trey'Dez Green (TE) is out for LSU

  OUT

  TE #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

• Whit Weeks (LB) is out for LSU

  OUT

  LB #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

• Dashawn Spears (S) is out for LSU

  OUT

  S #10 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

• Phillip Wright III (WR) is out for LSU

  OUT

  WR #15 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

• Charles Ross II (LB) is out for LSU

  OUT

  LB #26 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

SITUATIONAL

• MSST has 7 more days of rest

  14d vs 7d

  Mississippi State comes off a bye with 14 days of rest and goes to LSU, who is on a regular 7-day week. The Bulldogs had the extra week to heal and prepare for a hostile road setting. The rest edge goes to the road team here, which takes a little off the usual home advantage.

TEAM RECORD

• SEC game: MSST 2-1, LSU 1-2 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  These two share the SEC. MSST is 2-1 against it, LSU is 1-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-17.