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NCAAF · Thu, Oct 15 · 8:00 PM

Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats

O/U 69.5 · SPREAD Texas State Bobcats -14.5 · Bobcat Stadium (TX), San Marcos, TX

GARY'S PICK
Texas State -14.5
NCAAFvs Colorado State· -115

Texas State
-14.5

-115 · CASHED · CSU 27 · TXST 66

Colorado State

The pick & result

Published pick
Texas State Bobcats -14.5 -115
Published odds
-115
Result
Won
Final score
27-66

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 54 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 11 3:03 PM
Close
Oct 15 7:30 PM
Move
SPREADTexas State Bobcats -12 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -15 (-108)+3
TOTAL67.5 (-110)69.5 (-110)+2
MONEYLINETexas State Bobcats -450Texas State Bobcats -650−200
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 11 3:03 PMTexas State Bobcats -12 (-108)67.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -450 · Colorado State Rams +350
Oct 11 4:03 PMTexas State Bobcats -12.5 (-110)68.5 (-105)Texas State Bobcats -475 · Colorado State Rams +375
Oct 11 5:03 PMTexas State Bobcats -12.5 (-110)68.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -475 · Colorado State Rams +375
Oct 11 7:03 PMTexas State Bobcats -13 (-108)68.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -475 · Colorado State Rams +375
Oct 11 8:03 PMTexas State Bobcats -13 (-110)68.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -500 · Colorado State Rams +380
Oct 12 8:01 AMTexas State Bobcats -13 (-110)68.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -500 · Colorado State Rams +380
Oct 12 10:01 AMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-105)68.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -525 · Colorado State Rams +400
Oct 12 11:32 AMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-108)68.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 12 12:03 PMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-108)69.5 (-105)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 12 1:33 PMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-108)69.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 12 5:34 PMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-108)70.5 (-112)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 12 6:36 PMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-108)71.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 12 11:06 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105)71.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 13 6:00 AMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-112)71.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 13 9:31 AMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-120)71.5 (-112)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 13 10:01 AMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110)72.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 13 12:01 PMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-112)70.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 13 1:32 PMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-118)70.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 13 2:32 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105)70.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 13 3:32 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105)69.5 (-120)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 13 4:32 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-108)69.5 (-112)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 13 5:02 PMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-120)69.5 (-120)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 13 5:32 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105)69.5 (-112)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 13 7:02 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105)69.5 (-120)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 13 9:44 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105)69.5 (-112)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 13 11:14 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105)69.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 14 8:20 AMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-120)69.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 14 11:02 AMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-112)69.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 14 11:32 AMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-112)69.5 (-112)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 14 12:03 PMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-112)69.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 14 1:04 PMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-112)69.5 (-112)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 14 4:05 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110)69.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 12:09 AMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-112)69.5 (-120)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 7:00 AMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105)70.5 (-105)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 8:01 AMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-112)70.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 15 9:31 AMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-112)70.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 15 10:01 AMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-112)70.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 15 10:31 AMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-108)70.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 11:01 AMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105)70.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 11:31 AMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105)70.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 15 12:00 PMTexas State Bobcats -15 (-108)70.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -650 · Colorado State Rams +500
Oct 15 1:02 PMTexas State Bobcats -15 (-115)70.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -650 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 1:32 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110)70.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 5:00 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110)71.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -650 · Colorado State Rams +500
Oct 15 5:11 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-108)70.5 (-108)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 5:44 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105)69.5 (-112)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 6:06 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105)69.5 (-118)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 6:17 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105)70.5 (-105)Texas State Bobcats -650 · Colorado State Rams +500
Oct 15 6:39 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110)70.5 (-105)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 6:49 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110)69.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +450
Oct 15 7:00 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110)70.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 7:10 PMTexas State Bobcats -14 (-120)69.5 (-112)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 7:20 PMTexas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110)69.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475
Oct 15 7:30 PMTexas State Bobcats -15 (-108)69.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -650 · Colorado State Rams +500
CLOSEOct 15 7:30 PMTexas State Bobcats -15 (-108)69.5 (-110)Texas State Bobcats -650 · Colorado State Rams +500

The read

Thursday night under the lights in San Marcos, two 2-3 Pac-12 newcomers meet, but only one of them is as bad as its record. Texas State has been losing close games. Colorado State has been losing its defense.

This game turns on Texas State's ground attack against a run defense that has stopped tackling. The Bobcats run for 263.6 yards a game, led by Torrance Burgess Jr., who went for 214 against North Texas. Colorado State has allowed 1143 rushing yards, including 332 to BYU and 195 at 7.2 a carry to Oregon State. The Rams can't sell out against the run, either: they've allowed more than 10 yards per pass attempt in each of their last three games. They've given up more than 500 yards three straight times, and Jim Mora removed his defensive coordinator in the middle of the 56-26 loss to Oregon State. A new play caller with 12 days to prepare can clean up assignments, but he can't change the personnel.

The records hide the gap. Colorado State's 11 takeaways against 4 giveaways have propped up a team whose wins came over FCS Southern Utah and a Wyoming offense ranked 136th. Texas State has 9 giveaways and 5 takeaways, and two of its losses were blown halftime leads, including the one at San Diego State that turned on a kickoff-return touchdown and an interception that set up a short field. Set the turnovers aside and the Bobcats are more efficient on both sides of the ball: 49.1% success on offense to the Rams' 44.8%, and 44.7% allowed to their 51.6%.

The injury that matters belongs to Colorado State. RJ Vick, K'saan Farrar's steadiest receiver, is out after posting 93 and 99 yards the last two weeks. Farrar has already been starting, so the Hauss Hejny news changes little. Texas State loses Davian Jackson, its scoring back, but Burgess has carried the yardage all season.

There's real risk. Texas State scores just 3.2 points per trip inside the 40 and has faded after halftime, outscored 9-24 by UTSA and 12-28 at San Diego State. A Rams offense that has scored 23 or more every week can backdoor a two-touchdown number. But the Bobcats average 46 at home, and this Colorado State defense is in freefall. Lay the points with Texas State.

Injuries noted

Colorado State Rams: Hauss Hejny (game-time decision) — QB; hamstring, October 15 update.; RJ Vick (out) — WR; undisclosed, October 15 update.; Robby Harrison (probable) — DL; condition undisclosed.; Payton Stewart (questionable) — OL; condition undisclosed.; AJ Noland (out) — DB; condition undisclosed.; Dagan Myers (out) — DB; condition undisclosed.; Diego Rodriguez (out) — OL; condition undisclosed.; Grant Houser (out) — TE; condition undisclosed.; Jayden Cortell (out) — DB; condition undisclosed.; Jayden Tuia (out) — OL; offseason injury.; Kallen Martinez (out) — DB; condition undisclosed.; Troy Foster (out) — WR; condition undisclosed.; Xavier Wimbush (out) — DB; condition undisclosed.; Zach Smith (out) — OL; condition undisclosed.

Texas State Bobcats: Blake Smith (questionable) — TE; foot injury.; Cordarian Powell (questionable) — DB; condition undisclosed.; DonTerry Russell (questionable) — DL; condition undisclosed.; Cole Snodgrass (out) — TE; condition undisclosed.; Davian Jackson (out) — RB; undisclosed injury.; Jordan Sample (out) — ILB; condition undisclosed.; Ryan Nolan (out) — DB; condition undisclosed.; Terrance Brown Jr. (out) — OL; condition undisclosed.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Brad Jackson is TXST's projected starter

    8.91 Y/A

    Brad Jackson is TXST's projected starting quarterback. The Oct. 14 game preview identifies Jackson as the quarterback leading Texas State's offense against Colorado State; it does not quote an official starting announcement. 2026 line: 1229 passing yards, 66.7% completions, 8.91 yards per attempt, 13-5 TD-INT over 5 games.

  • K'saan Farrar is CSU's projected starter

    6.51 Y/A

    K'saan Farrar is CSU's projected starting quarterback. Tyler King's Oct. 14 game report says Farrar will make another start. Hejny could be available as an emergency substitute; an official game-day starting announcement was not retrieved. 2026 line: 625 passing yards, 61.5% completions, 6.51 yards per attempt, 3-2 TD-INT over 4 games.

TRENCHES

  • TXST: 116.6 rushing yards allowed per game to CSU's 223

    106.4 YPG

    Through five games, Texas State allows 116.6 rushing yards a game while Colorado State gives up 223, so one front holds up against the run and the other gets pushed around. Five games is a real sample, though the fact sheet does not say who either team played, so schedule could inflate the gap. Colorado State's number is big enough that it is unlikely to be all opponent. In this spot, expect Texas State to lean on the run and think about how that shapes pace and game script.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • TXST: 31:54 time of possession per game to CSU's 23:53

    8:01 TOP

    Texas State holds the ball about eight minutes longer per game, which means CSU's offense spends much of the afternoon on the sideline. The Bobcats sat at 29:10 last season and are up to 31:54 over five games, while CSU has slid from 26:50 to 23:53. That fits a run-first team controlling games against an opponent that has struggled to sustain drives. Fewer CSU possessions shrink its chances to keep pace, a factor for totals and for how a trailing CSU looks late.

  • TXST: 33.2 points allowed per game to CSU's 38.6

    5.4 PPG

    CSU is at 38.6 points allowed per game over 5 games; TXST is at 33.2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season CSU was at 30.8 over 12 games and TXST at 29 over 13 games.

TURNOVERS

  • CSU: 2.2 takeaways per game to TXST's 1

    1.2 TO

    Colorado State forces 2.2 takeaways a game over five games, Texas State just 1, so the Rams defense creates extra possessions far more often. Takeaways swing a lot from game to game and depend on opponent mistakes, so that rate is the most likely of these numbers to drift back toward the middle. For this game, a turnover edge can flip a close result, but leaning hard on it carries more variance than a yardage edge.

MISMATCH

  • TXST: 263.6 rush yards a game to CSU's 163.6

    263.6 VS 163.6

    The widest gap between these two is rush yards a game: CSU ran for 163.6 rushing yards a game over 5 games; TXST ran for 263.6 rushing yards a game over 5 games this season. Last season CSU was at 108.3 over 12 games and TXST at 222.1 over 13 games.

COVERAGE

  • CSU: 245.2 passing yards allowed per game to TXST's 298.6

    53.4 YPG

    Over five games, Texas State allows 298.6 passing yards a game and Colorado State 245.2, so the Bobcats secondary has given up more through the air. Without opponent detail on the sheet, some of that may come from teams throwing to chase or from game script. Paired with Colorado State's weak run defense, each side has a clear lane to attack, and that combination is worth weighing when you think about how many points this game produces.

REPLACEMENT

  • Diego Rodriguez (OL) is out for CSU

    OUT

    OL; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Dagan Myers (S) is out for CSU

    OUT

    DB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • AJ Noland (S) is out for CSU

    OUT

    DB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Jayden Cortell (CB) is out for CSU

    OUT

    DB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Grant Houser (TE) is out for CSU

    OUT

    TE; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Terrance Brown Jr. (OL) is out for TXST

    OUT

    OL; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Ryan Nolan (DB) is out for TXST

    OUT

    DB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Jordan Sample (LB) is out for TXST

    OUT

    ILB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Davian Jackson (RB) is out for TXST

    OUT

    RB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Cole Snodgrass (TE) is out for TXST

    OUT

    TE; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Zach Smith (OL) is out for CSU

    OUT

    OL; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Xavier Wimbush (CB) is out for CSU

    OUT

    DB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Troy Foster (WR) is out for CSU

    OUT

    WR; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Kallen Martinez (CB) is out for CSU

    OUT

    DB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Jayden Tuia (OL) is out for CSU

    OUT

    OL; offseason injury. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • DonTerry Russell (DL) is questionable for TXST

    QUESTIONABLE

    DL; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Cordarian Powell (DB) is questionable for TXST

    QUESTIONABLE

    DB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Blake Smith (TE) is questionable for TXST

    QUESTIONABLE

    TE; condition unspecified in availability report. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • RJ Vick (WR) is questionable for CSU

    QUESTIONABLE

    WR; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Payton Stewart (OL) is questionable for CSU

    QUESTIONABLE

    OL; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

  • Hauss Hejny (QB) is questionable for CSU

    QUESTIONABLE

    QB; hamstring injury. Oct. 14 reporting says emergency availability remains possible. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13) Colorado State set for first trip to Texas State | Rams Gameday — Tyler King, The Denver Gazette; published 4:49pm (2026-10-14)

  • Robby Harrison (DL) is probable for CSU

    PROBABLE

    DL; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)

SITUATIONAL

  • TXST: 26.8 first downs per game to CSU's 19

    7.8 FD

    Texas State moves the chains almost eight more times a game, which is how it keeps drives alive and the clock running. Its 26.8 over five games is up from 23 last season, while CSU at 19 is close to last season's 18.3, so the Bobcats are the side that changed. Five games is a usable sample, though the schedule faced shapes it. A first-down gap this wide points to Texas State dictating tempo, so think about long drives and fewer total possessions in this game.

  • CSU: 32.4 penalty yards per game to TXST's 58.2

    25.8 YDS

    CSU is at 32.4 penalty yards per game over 5 games; TXST is at 58.2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season CSU was at 56.3 over 12 games and TXST at 60.2 over 13 games.

  • TXST: 55.4% third-down conversion rate to CSU's 47.1%

    8.3 PP

    CSU is at 47.1% third-down conversion rate over 5 games; TXST is at 55.4% over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season CSU was at 32.9% over 12 games and TXST at 46.6% over 13 games.

  • CSU: 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate to TXST's 41.7%

    25 PP

    CSU is at 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate over 5 games; TXST is at 41.7% over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season CSU was at 46.7% over 12 games and TXST at 58.3% over 13 games.

  • CSU comes off a bye

    12d vs 12d

    Both teams had the week off, so CSU and TXST each walk in on 12 days of rest and neither gets a scheduling edge. A bye usually means fresher legs, time to heal bumps and an extra week to install wrinkles, and here both staffs got the same window. With the calendar even, this spot comes down to the matchup itself, so don't give either side credit for rest.

AFTER GARY

  • CSU +14.5 → +14.5

    NO MOVE

    Gary's number was 14.5; the same book now shows 14.5.

  • TXST -14.5 → -14.5

    NO MOVE

    Gary's number was -14.5; the same book now shows -14.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 15, 2026 at 10:07 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

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