Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats
O/U 69.5 · SPREAD Texas State Bobcats -14.5 · Bobcat Stadium (TX), San Marcos, TX
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Texas State Bobcats -14.5 -115
- Published odds
- -115
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 27-66
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 54 moves| Market | Opened Oct 11 3:03 PM | Close Oct 15 7:30 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Texas State Bobcats -12 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -15 (-108) | +3 |
| TOTAL | 67.5 (-110) | 69.5 (-110) | +2 |
| MONEYLINE | Texas State Bobcats -450 | Texas State Bobcats -650 | −200 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 11 3:03 PM | Texas State Bobcats -12 (-108) | 67.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -450 · Colorado State Rams +350 |
| Oct 11 4:03 PM | Texas State Bobcats -12.5 (-110) | 68.5 (-105) | Texas State Bobcats -475 · Colorado State Rams +375 |
| Oct 11 5:03 PM | Texas State Bobcats -12.5 (-110) | 68.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -475 · Colorado State Rams +375 |
| Oct 11 7:03 PM | Texas State Bobcats -13 (-108) | 68.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -475 · Colorado State Rams +375 |
| Oct 11 8:03 PM | Texas State Bobcats -13 (-110) | 68.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -500 · Colorado State Rams +380 |
| Oct 12 8:01 AM | Texas State Bobcats -13 (-110) | 68.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -500 · Colorado State Rams +380 |
| Oct 12 10:01 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-105) | 68.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -525 · Colorado State Rams +400 |
| Oct 12 11:32 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-108) | 68.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 12 12:03 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-108) | 69.5 (-105) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 12 1:33 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-108) | 69.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 12 5:34 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-108) | 70.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 12 6:36 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-108) | 71.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 12 11:06 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105) | 71.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 13 6:00 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-112) | 71.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 13 9:31 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-120) | 71.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 13 10:01 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110) | 72.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 13 12:01 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-112) | 70.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 13 1:32 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-118) | 70.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 13 2:32 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105) | 70.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 13 3:32 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105) | 69.5 (-120) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 13 4:32 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-108) | 69.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 13 5:02 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-120) | 69.5 (-120) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 13 5:32 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105) | 69.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 13 7:02 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105) | 69.5 (-120) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 13 9:44 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105) | 69.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 13 11:14 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105) | 69.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 14 8:20 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-120) | 69.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 14 11:02 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-112) | 69.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 14 11:32 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-112) | 69.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 14 12:03 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-112) | 69.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 14 1:04 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-112) | 69.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 14 4:05 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110) | 69.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 12:09 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-112) | 69.5 (-120) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 7:00 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105) | 70.5 (-105) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 8:01 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-112) | 70.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 15 9:31 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-112) | 70.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 15 10:01 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-112) | 70.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 15 10:31 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-108) | 70.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 11:01 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105) | 70.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 11:31 AM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105) | 70.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -600 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 15 12:00 PM | Texas State Bobcats -15 (-108) | 70.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -650 · Colorado State Rams +500 |
| Oct 15 1:02 PM | Texas State Bobcats -15 (-115) | 70.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -650 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 1:32 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110) | 70.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 5:00 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110) | 71.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -650 · Colorado State Rams +500 |
| Oct 15 5:11 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-108) | 70.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 5:44 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105) | 69.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 6:06 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105) | 69.5 (-118) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 6:17 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-105) | 70.5 (-105) | Texas State Bobcats -650 · Colorado State Rams +500 |
| Oct 15 6:39 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110) | 70.5 (-105) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 6:49 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110) | 69.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +450 |
| Oct 15 7:00 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110) | 70.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 7:10 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14 (-120) | 69.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 7:20 PM | Texas State Bobcats -14.5 (-110) | 69.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -625 · Colorado State Rams +475 |
| Oct 15 7:30 PM | Texas State Bobcats -15 (-108) | 69.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -650 · Colorado State Rams +500 |
| CLOSEOct 15 7:30 PM | Texas State Bobcats -15 (-108) | 69.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -650 · Colorado State Rams +500 |
The read
Thursday night under the lights in San Marcos, two 2-3 Pac-12 newcomers meet, but only one of them is as bad as its record. Texas State has been losing close games. Colorado State has been losing its defense.
This game turns on Texas State's ground attack against a run defense that has stopped tackling. The Bobcats run for 263.6 yards a game, led by Torrance Burgess Jr., who went for 214 against North Texas. Colorado State has allowed 1143 rushing yards, including 332 to BYU and 195 at 7.2 a carry to Oregon State. The Rams can't sell out against the run, either: they've allowed more than 10 yards per pass attempt in each of their last three games. They've given up more than 500 yards three straight times, and Jim Mora removed his defensive coordinator in the middle of the 56-26 loss to Oregon State. A new play caller with 12 days to prepare can clean up assignments, but he can't change the personnel.
The records hide the gap. Colorado State's 11 takeaways against 4 giveaways have propped up a team whose wins came over FCS Southern Utah and a Wyoming offense ranked 136th. Texas State has 9 giveaways and 5 takeaways, and two of its losses were blown halftime leads, including the one at San Diego State that turned on a kickoff-return touchdown and an interception that set up a short field. Set the turnovers aside and the Bobcats are more efficient on both sides of the ball: 49.1% success on offense to the Rams' 44.8%, and 44.7% allowed to their 51.6%.
The injury that matters belongs to Colorado State. RJ Vick, K'saan Farrar's steadiest receiver, is out after posting 93 and 99 yards the last two weeks. Farrar has already been starting, so the Hauss Hejny news changes little. Texas State loses Davian Jackson, its scoring back, but Burgess has carried the yardage all season.
There's real risk. Texas State scores just 3.2 points per trip inside the 40 and has faded after halftime, outscored 9-24 by UTSA and 12-28 at San Diego State. A Rams offense that has scored 23 or more every week can backdoor a two-touchdown number. But the Bobcats average 46 at home, and this Colorado State defense is in freefall. Lay the points with Texas State.
Injuries noted
Colorado State Rams: Hauss Hejny (game-time decision) — QB; hamstring, October 15 update.; RJ Vick (out) — WR; undisclosed, October 15 update.; Robby Harrison (probable) — DL; condition undisclosed.; Payton Stewart (questionable) — OL; condition undisclosed.; AJ Noland (out) — DB; condition undisclosed.; Dagan Myers (out) — DB; condition undisclosed.; Diego Rodriguez (out) — OL; condition undisclosed.; Grant Houser (out) — TE; condition undisclosed.; Jayden Cortell (out) — DB; condition undisclosed.; Jayden Tuia (out) — OL; offseason injury.; Kallen Martinez (out) — DB; condition undisclosed.; Troy Foster (out) — WR; condition undisclosed.; Xavier Wimbush (out) — DB; condition undisclosed.; Zach Smith (out) — OL; condition undisclosed.
Texas State Bobcats: Blake Smith (questionable) — TE; foot injury.; Cordarian Powell (questionable) — DB; condition undisclosed.; DonTerry Russell (questionable) — DL; condition undisclosed.; Cole Snodgrass (out) — TE; condition undisclosed.; Davian Jackson (out) — RB; undisclosed injury.; Jordan Sample (out) — ILB; condition undisclosed.; Ryan Nolan (out) — DB; condition undisclosed.; Terrance Brown Jr. (out) — OL; condition undisclosed.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Brad Jackson is TXST's projected starter
8.91 Y/ABrad Jackson is TXST's projected starting quarterback. The Oct. 14 game preview identifies Jackson as the quarterback leading Texas State's offense against Colorado State; it does not quote an official starting announcement. 2026 line: 1229 passing yards, 66.7% completions, 8.91 yards per attempt, 13-5 TD-INT over 5 games.
K'saan Farrar is CSU's projected starter
6.51 Y/AK'saan Farrar is CSU's projected starting quarterback. Tyler King's Oct. 14 game report says Farrar will make another start. Hejny could be available as an emergency substitute; an official game-day starting announcement was not retrieved. 2026 line: 625 passing yards, 61.5% completions, 6.51 yards per attempt, 3-2 TD-INT over 4 games.
TRENCHES
TXST: 116.6 rushing yards allowed per game to CSU's 223
106.4 YPGThrough five games, Texas State allows 116.6 rushing yards a game while Colorado State gives up 223, so one front holds up against the run and the other gets pushed around. Five games is a real sample, though the fact sheet does not say who either team played, so schedule could inflate the gap. Colorado State's number is big enough that it is unlikely to be all opponent. In this spot, expect Texas State to lean on the run and think about how that shapes pace and game script.
PACE & SCRIPT
TXST: 31:54 time of possession per game to CSU's 23:53
8:01 TOPTexas State holds the ball about eight minutes longer per game, which means CSU's offense spends much of the afternoon on the sideline. The Bobcats sat at 29:10 last season and are up to 31:54 over five games, while CSU has slid from 26:50 to 23:53. That fits a run-first team controlling games against an opponent that has struggled to sustain drives. Fewer CSU possessions shrink its chances to keep pace, a factor for totals and for how a trailing CSU looks late.
TXST: 33.2 points allowed per game to CSU's 38.6
5.4 PPGCSU is at 38.6 points allowed per game over 5 games; TXST is at 33.2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season CSU was at 30.8 over 12 games and TXST at 29 over 13 games.
TURNOVERS
CSU: 2.2 takeaways per game to TXST's 1
1.2 TOColorado State forces 2.2 takeaways a game over five games, Texas State just 1, so the Rams defense creates extra possessions far more often. Takeaways swing a lot from game to game and depend on opponent mistakes, so that rate is the most likely of these numbers to drift back toward the middle. For this game, a turnover edge can flip a close result, but leaning hard on it carries more variance than a yardage edge.
MISMATCH
TXST: 263.6 rush yards a game to CSU's 163.6
263.6 VS 163.6The widest gap between these two is rush yards a game: CSU ran for 163.6 rushing yards a game over 5 games; TXST ran for 263.6 rushing yards a game over 5 games this season. Last season CSU was at 108.3 over 12 games and TXST at 222.1 over 13 games.
COVERAGE
CSU: 245.2 passing yards allowed per game to TXST's 298.6
53.4 YPGOver five games, Texas State allows 298.6 passing yards a game and Colorado State 245.2, so the Bobcats secondary has given up more through the air. Without opponent detail on the sheet, some of that may come from teams throwing to chase or from game script. Paired with Colorado State's weak run defense, each side has a clear lane to attack, and that combination is worth weighing when you think about how many points this game produces.
REPLACEMENT
Diego Rodriguez (OL) is out for CSU
OUTOL; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Dagan Myers (S) is out for CSU
OUTDB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
AJ Noland (S) is out for CSU
OUTDB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Jayden Cortell (CB) is out for CSU
OUTDB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Grant Houser (TE) is out for CSU
OUTTE; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Terrance Brown Jr. (OL) is out for TXST
OUTOL; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Ryan Nolan (DB) is out for TXST
OUTDB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Jordan Sample (LB) is out for TXST
OUTILB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Davian Jackson (RB) is out for TXST
OUTRB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Cole Snodgrass (TE) is out for TXST
OUTTE; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Zach Smith (OL) is out for CSU
OUTOL; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Xavier Wimbush (CB) is out for CSU
OUTDB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Troy Foster (WR) is out for CSU
OUTWR; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Kallen Martinez (CB) is out for CSU
OUTDB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Jayden Tuia (OL) is out for CSU
OUTOL; offseason injury. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
DonTerry Russell (DL) is questionable for TXST
QUESTIONABLEDL; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Cordarian Powell (DB) is questionable for TXST
QUESTIONABLEDB; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Blake Smith (TE) is questionable for TXST
QUESTIONABLETE; condition unspecified in availability report. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
RJ Vick (WR) is questionable for CSU
QUESTIONABLEWR; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Payton Stewart (OL) is questionable for CSU
QUESTIONABLEOL; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
Hauss Hejny (QB) is questionable for CSU
QUESTIONABLEQB; hamstring injury. Oct. 14 reporting says emergency availability remains possible. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13) Colorado State set for first trip to Texas State | Rams Gameday — Tyler King, The Denver Gazette; published 4:49pm (2026-10-14)
Robby Harrison (DL) is probable for CSU
PROBABLEDL; condition unspecified. Injury report for Colorado State vs Texas State football game — Kevin Lytle, Fort Collins Coloradoan, via AOL; published 17:21 UTC (2026-10-13)
SITUATIONAL
TXST: 26.8 first downs per game to CSU's 19
7.8 FDTexas State moves the chains almost eight more times a game, which is how it keeps drives alive and the clock running. Its 26.8 over five games is up from 23 last season, while CSU at 19 is close to last season's 18.3, so the Bobcats are the side that changed. Five games is a usable sample, though the schedule faced shapes it. A first-down gap this wide points to Texas State dictating tempo, so think about long drives and fewer total possessions in this game.
CSU: 32.4 penalty yards per game to TXST's 58.2
25.8 YDSCSU is at 32.4 penalty yards per game over 5 games; TXST is at 58.2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season CSU was at 56.3 over 12 games and TXST at 60.2 over 13 games.
TXST: 55.4% third-down conversion rate to CSU's 47.1%
8.3 PPCSU is at 47.1% third-down conversion rate over 5 games; TXST is at 55.4% over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season CSU was at 32.9% over 12 games and TXST at 46.6% over 13 games.
CSU: 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate to TXST's 41.7%
25 PPCSU is at 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate over 5 games; TXST is at 41.7% over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season CSU was at 46.7% over 12 games and TXST at 58.3% over 13 games.
CSU comes off a bye
12d vs 12dBoth teams had the week off, so CSU and TXST each walk in on 12 days of rest and neither gets a scheduling edge. A bye usually means fresher legs, time to heal bumps and an extra week to install wrinkles, and here both staffs got the same window. With the calendar even, this spot comes down to the matchup itself, so don't give either side credit for rest.
AFTER GARY
CSU +14.5 → +14.5
NO MOVEGary's number was 14.5; the same book now shows 14.5.
TXST -14.5 → -14.5
NO MOVEGary's number was -14.5; the same book now shows -14.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 15, 2026 at 10:07 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery NCAAF game this dayThe NCAAF recordToday's NCAAF picksEvery sport this day