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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 10 · 7:30 PM

USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany Lions

O/U 54.5 · SPREAD Penn State Nittany Lions -1.5 · Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA

GARY'S PICK
USC Moneyline
NCAAF@ Penn State· +104
✓ CASHED · USC 31 · PSU 23

USC
Moneyline

+104 · CASHED · USC 31 · PSU 23

Penn State

The pick & result

Published pick
USC Trojans ML +104
Published odds
+104
Result
Won
Final score
31-23

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

FANATICS · 40 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 4 12:34 AM		Close
Oct 10 7:16 PM		Move
SPREADPenn State Nittany Lions +2.5 (-105)Penn State Nittany Lions -1 (-105)−1½
TOTAL57.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)−3
MONEYLINEPenn State Nittany Lions +110Penn State Nittany Lions -110−220
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 4 12:34 AMPenn State Nittany Lions +2.5 (-105)57.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions +110 · USC Trojans -130
Oct 4 6:00 AMPenn State Nittany Lions +2 (-110)56.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions +105 · USC Trojans -125
Oct 4 8:30 AMPenn State Nittany Lions +2 (-115)56.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions +100 · USC Trojans -120
Oct 4 10:31 AMPenn State Nittany Lions +2 (-110)55 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions +100 · USC Trojans -120
Oct 4 11:31 AMPenn State Nittany Lions +1 (-110)55 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions +100 · USC Trojans -120
Oct 4 3:56 PMPenn State Nittany Lions +1 (-115)55.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -105 · USC Trojans -115
Oct 4 4:56 PMPenn State Nittany Lions +1 (-115)55.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -110 · USC Trojans -110
Oct 4 7:50 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -1 (-110)55 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -110 · USC Trojans -110
Oct 4 8:51 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -1 (-110)55 (-105)Penn State Nittany Lions -115 · USC Trojans -105
Oct 5 6:00 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -1 (-105)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -110 · USC Trojans -110
Oct 5 8:01 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -1 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -115 · USC Trojans -105
Oct 5 3:57 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -1 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 6 9:00 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -1.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 6 10:42 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -1.5 (-105)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 6 11:12 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -1.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 6 11:42 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -1 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 6 7:32 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -1.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 6 9:03 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -1.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 8 1:32 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -1.5 (-110)55 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 8 2:02 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -1.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 9 9:00 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -1.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 9 9:31 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -2 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 9 10:31 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -2 (-110)54.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 9 2:32 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -2 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 9 3:02 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -2 (-110)54.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 9 10:53 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -2 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -125 · USC Trojans +105
Oct 10 9:11 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -125 · USC Trojans +105
Oct 10 9:31 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -2 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -125 · USC Trojans +105
Oct 10 11:28 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -1.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 10 11:38 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -1.5 (-105)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -120 · USC Trojans +100
Oct 10 2:30 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -1 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -115 · USC Trojans -105
Oct 10 3:01 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -1 (-105)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -110 · USC Trojans -110
Oct 10 3:32 PMPenn State Nittany Lions +1 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -110 · USC Trojans -110
Oct 10 3:42 PMPenn State Nittany Lions +1.5 (-115)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -110 · USC Trojans -110
Oct 10 4:22 PMPenn State Nittany Lions +1 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -105 · USC Trojans -115
Oct 10 4:42 PMPenn State Nittany Lions +1 (-110)55 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -105 · USC Trojans -115
Oct 10 4:53 PMPenn State Nittany Lions +1 (-110)54.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -105 · USC Trojans -115
Oct 10 5:03 PMPenn State Nittany Lions +1 (-110)55 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -105 · USC Trojans -115
Oct 10 6:15 PMPenn State Nittany Lions +1 (-110)54.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -105 · USC Trojans -115
Oct 10 6:55 PMPenn State Nittany Lions +1 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -105 · USC Trojans -115
CLOSEOct 10 7:16 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -1 (-105)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -110 · USC Trojans -110

The read

Beaver Stadium gets its White Out under the lights, with Penn State trying to reverse consecutive conference losses and USC arriving for its second road game of the season.

I’m backing USC because its offense gives me the stronger path to an outright win. Jayden Maiava has produced 1,744 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and three interceptions. USC’s 44.5% success rate on passing downs matters here: I trust this offense more to sustain possessions when the running game stalls. Penn State’s corresponding rate is 27.8%.

My expectation is that Lincoln Riley makes Penn State defend both Maiava’s passing and King Miller’s rushing, then finds answers as Lynn reveals his defensive approach. Lynn knows USC’s personnel, but he has acknowledged Riley’s ability to attack recognizable schemes. Penn State’s six sacks across five games give me less reason to expect consistent disruption of that process.

USC still has real obstacles. Its rushing attack managed 3.6 yards per carry against Oregon and 3.3 against Washington. Its defense has allowed opponents opportunities to score, and Washington’s five sacks do not establish that the pass rush has permanently improved. Penn State can threaten this bet if Becht connects with Sowell and Brahmer while the ground game keeps possessions manageable.

I’m less persuaded by that offensive recovery. Penn State ran for 3.3 yards per carry against Wisconsin and 2.2 against Northwestern. Howard remains out, as he was for both losses, so this is the same receiving limitation those recent performances already reflect. USC’s defense gives Penn State an opening, but Penn State still has to execute through it.

I prefer the moneyline at +104 to buying USC +1.5 at -108. My conviction rests on USC sustaining enough offense to win, with its defensive inconsistency keeping confidence measured.

Injuries noted

USC Trojans: Corey Simms (out for season) — Wide receiver; October 10 reporting identifies a season-ending absence and lists him out on Friday's report.; Kendarius Reddick (out) — Safety; out on Friday's Penn State report. Condition unspecified.; Taylor Johnson (out) — Linebacker, also called Taybo; out on Friday's report. Condition unspecified.; Roman Marchetti (out) — Linebacker; out on Friday's report. Condition unspecified.; Kilian O'Connor (out) — Offensive lineman; out on Friday's report. Condition unspecified.; Terrell Anderson (out for season) — Receiver; Friday's report lists doubtful, but October 10 reporting attributes expected season-ending surgery for an undisclosed injury to CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz.; Hayden Treter (doubtful) — Offensive lineman; doubtful on Friday's report. Condition unspecified.; Jahkeem Stewart (questionable) — Defensive tackle; questionable on Friday's report. Condition unspecified.; Trent Mosley (questionable) — Wide receiver; questionable on Friday's report. Condition unspecified.; Mark Bowman (questionable) — Tight end; questionable on Friday's report. Condition unspecified.; Jide Abasiri (questionable) — Defensive tackle; questionable on Friday's report. Condition unspecified.

Penn State Nittany Lions: Alex Tatsch (out) — Linebacker; downgraded from questionable in Friday's USC availability report. Condition unspecified.; Armstrong Nnodim (probable) — Defensive tackle; upgraded from questionable Friday. Condition unspecified.; Koby Howard (out) — Wide receiver; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified.; LaVar Arrington II (out) — Defensive end; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified.; Max Granville (out) — Defensive end; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified.; Mason Robinson (out) — Defensive end; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified.; Dayshaun Burnett (out) — Defensive end; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified.; Joshua Johnson (out) — Cornerback; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified.; Christian Askew (out) — Cornerback; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified.; Tyler Armstead (out) — Cornerback; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified.; Cam Smith (out) — Linebacker; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified.; Will Tompkins (out) — Offensive lineman; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified.; Cooper Alexander (out) — Tight end; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified.; Cristiano Rosa (out) — Kicker; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Jayden Maiava is USC's projected starter

    9.13 Y/A

    Jayden Maiava is USC's projected starting quarterback. USC's October 6 official Penn State preview identifies Maiava as its returning quarterback and discusses his role under Riley and Huard. No explicit game-day starting announcement was retrieved. 2026 line: 1744 passing yards, 68.6% completions, 9.13 yards per attempt, 15-3 TD-INT over 6 games.

  • Rocco Becht is PSU's projected starter

    8.27 Y/A

    Rocco Becht is PSU's projected starting quarterback. October 8 USC preview discusses Becht leading Penn State's offense. October 6 reporting anticipates his next start against USC but does not establish a formal game-day announcement. 2026 line: 1108 passing yards, 61.9% completions, 8.27 yards per attempt, 10-3 TD-INT over 5 games.

TRENCHES

  • USC: 118.2 rushing yards allowed per game to PSU's 173.2

    55 YPG

    USC has allowed 118.2 rushing yards a game over 6 games, Penn State 173.2 over 5. Penn State's run defense has leaked more, though the sheet does not say which offences did it. If USC can run on the road, it keeps Penn State's offence off the field and changes the possession count, which feeds into the total and the spread.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • PSU: 16 points allowed per game to USC's 25.5

    9.5 PPG

    Penn State allows 16 points a game through 5 games, better than 20.5 last season. USC gives up 25.5 over 6, slightly worse than its 23 last year. Both defenses are close to their usual form, so this gap looks fairly real. USC's passing offense facing a tighter Penn State defense at home is the key collision in this game.

TURNOVERS

  • PSU: 1.8 takeaways per game to USC's 0.83

    0.97 TO

    Penn State has forced 1.8 turnovers a game over 5 games, USC 0.83 over 6. That gap gives Penn State roughly one extra possession a game so far, though takeaways swing and tend to even out. At home, Penn State has the edge in creating short fields, which matters most in a game projected to be tight.

MISMATCH

  • USC: 311.7 pass yards a game to PSU's 243.6

    311.7 VS 243.6

    USC throws for 311.7 yards a game over 6 games, Penn State 243.6 over 5. USC was at 296 last season, so its passing game is who it is. Penn State has jumped from 187.6 last season, a real change that makes this gap smaller than it would have been a year ago. Penn State can hide it by running the ball and keeping USC's offense on the sideline, so watch how much of the game Penn State controls at home.

COVERAGE

  • PSU: 119.6 passing yards allowed per game to USC's 230.7

    111.1 YPG

    Penn State allows 119.6 passing yards a game over five games, and USC allows 230.7 over six. Penn State's mark is elite on its face, though the sheet doesn't say how strong the passing offenses it faced were. USC's pass defense is the more exposed one. USC passing well at Penn State would mean beating a unit that hasn't allowed much.

REPLACEMENT

  • Corey Simms (WR) is out for the season for USC

    OUT FOR SEASON

    Wide receiver; October 10 reporting identifies a season-ending absence and lists him out on Friday's report. USC Trojans Receiver Terrell Anderson Headlines Latest Injury Report (2026-10-10)

  • Terrell Anderson (WR) is out for the season for USC

    OUT FOR SEASON

    Receiver; Friday's report lists doubtful, but October 10 reporting attributes expected season-ending surgery for an undisclosed injury to CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz. USC Trojans Receiver Terrell Anderson Headlines Latest Injury Report (2026-10-10)

  • Kendarius Reddick (S) is out for USC

    OUT

    Safety; out on Friday's Penn State report. Condition unspecified. USC Trojans Receiver Terrell Anderson Headlines Latest Injury Report (2026-10-10)

  • Taylor Johnson (LB) is out for USC

    OUT

    Linebacker, also called Taybo; out on Friday's report. Condition unspecified. USC Trojans Receiver Terrell Anderson Headlines Latest Injury Report (2026-10-10)

  • Roman Marchetti (LB) is out for USC

    OUT

    Linebacker; out on Friday's report. Condition unspecified. USC Trojans Receiver Terrell Anderson Headlines Latest Injury Report (2026-10-10)

  • Kilian O'Connor (OL) is out for USC

    OUT

    Offensive lineman; out on Friday's report. Condition unspecified. USC Trojans Receiver Terrell Anderson Headlines Latest Injury Report (2026-10-10)

  • Alex Tatsch (LB) is out for PSU

    OUT

    Linebacker; downgraded from questionable in Friday's USC availability report. Condition unspecified. Penn State Football Linebacker Alex Tatsch Ruled Out For White Out In Friday Availability Report (2026-10-09)

  • Koby Howard (WR) is out for PSU

    OUT

    Wide receiver; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified. Penn State Football Linebacker Alex Tatsch Ruled Out For White Out In Friday Availability Report (2026-10-09)

  • LaVar Arrington II (DE) is out for PSU

    OUT

    Defensive end; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified. Penn State Football Linebacker Alex Tatsch Ruled Out For White Out In Friday Availability Report (2026-10-09)

  • Max Granville (DE) is out for PSU

    OUT

    Defensive end; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified. Penn State Football Linebacker Alex Tatsch Ruled Out For White Out In Friday Availability Report (2026-10-09)

  • Mason Robinson (DE) is out for PSU

    OUT

    Defensive end; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified. Penn State Football Linebacker Alex Tatsch Ruled Out For White Out In Friday Availability Report (2026-10-09)

  • Dayshaun Burnett (DE) is out for PSU

    OUT

    Defensive end; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified. Penn State Football Linebacker Alex Tatsch Ruled Out For White Out In Friday Availability Report (2026-10-09)

  • Joshua Johnson (CB) is out for PSU

    OUT

    Cornerback; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified. Penn State Football Linebacker Alex Tatsch Ruled Out For White Out In Friday Availability Report (2026-10-09)

  • Christian Askew (S) is out for PSU

    OUT

    Cornerback; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified. Penn State Football Linebacker Alex Tatsch Ruled Out For White Out In Friday Availability Report (2026-10-09)

  • Tyler Armstead (CB) is out for PSU

    OUT

    Cornerback; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified. Penn State Football Linebacker Alex Tatsch Ruled Out For White Out In Friday Availability Report (2026-10-09)

  • Cam Smith (LB) is out for PSU

    OUT

    Linebacker; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified. Penn State Football Linebacker Alex Tatsch Ruled Out For White Out In Friday Availability Report (2026-10-09)

  • Will Tompkins (OL) is out for PSU

    OUT

    Offensive lineman; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified. Penn State Football Linebacker Alex Tatsch Ruled Out For White Out In Friday Availability Report (2026-10-09)

  • Cooper Alexander (TE) is out for PSU

    OUT

    Tight end; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified. Penn State Football Linebacker Alex Tatsch Ruled Out For White Out In Friday Availability Report (2026-10-09)

  • Cristiano Rosa (PK) is out for PSU

    OUT

    Kicker; ruled out against USC. Condition unspecified. Penn State Football Linebacker Alex Tatsch Ruled Out For White Out In Friday Availability Report (2026-10-09)

  • Hayden Treter (OL) is doubtful for USC

    DOUBTFUL

    Offensive lineman; doubtful on Friday's report. Condition unspecified. USC Trojans Receiver Terrell Anderson Headlines Latest Injury Report (2026-10-10)

SITUATIONAL

  • USC: 311.7 team passing yards per game to PSU's 243.6

    68.1 YPG

    USC throws for 311.7 yards a game over 6 games, close to last season's 296, so this is who the Trojans are. Penn State is at 243.6 over 5, a big jump from 187.6 last season, which makes its passing gain the less proven part. USC's air game should hold up. Penn State matching it through the air is the shakier bet, which matters for how you view yardage and total props.

TEAM RECORD

  • Big Ten game: USC 2-1, PSU 0-2 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the Big Ten. USC is 2-1 against it, PSU is 0-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-10.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 10, 2026 at 8:14 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanatics, fanduel, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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