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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM

Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers

O/U 50.5 · SPREAD Missouri Tigers -4.5 · Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO

GARY'S PICK
Missouri -3.5
NCAAFvs Texas A&M· -106

Missouri
-3.5

-106 · CASHED · TA&M 6 · MIZ 27

Texas A&M

The pick & result

Published pick
Missouri Tigers -3.5 -106
Published odds
-106
Result
Won
Final score
6-27

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

FANATICS · 39 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 4 12:34 AM
Close
Oct 10 11:59 AM
Move
SPREADMissouri Tigers -3 (-110)Missouri Tigers -4.5 (-110)+1½
TOTAL50.5 (-110)50.5 (-115)Price
MONEYLINEMissouri Tigers -145Missouri Tigers -200−55
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 4 12:34 AMMissouri Tigers -3 (-110)50.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -145 · Texas A&M Aggies +120
Oct 4 6:00 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -160 · Texas A&M Aggies +135
Oct 4 8:30 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -155 · Texas A&M Aggies +130
Oct 4 10:31 AMMissouri Tigers -3 (-115)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -150 · Texas A&M Aggies +125
Oct 4 12:31 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -155 · Texas A&M Aggies +130
Oct 4 3:56 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-110)50 (-110)Missouri Tigers -170 · Texas A&M Aggies +140
Oct 4 4:56 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-115)48 (-110)Missouri Tigers -195 · Texas A&M Aggies +160
Oct 4 5:49 PMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-110)48 (-115)Missouri Tigers -195 · Texas A&M Aggies +160
Oct 4 7:50 PMMissouri Tigers -4 (-110)48 (-110)Missouri Tigers -190 · Texas A&M Aggies +155
Oct 4 8:51 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-110)48 (-110)Missouri Tigers -180 · Texas A&M Aggies +150
Oct 5 6:00 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)48 (-110)Missouri Tigers -175 · Texas A&M Aggies +145
Oct 5 8:01 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)48 (-110)Missouri Tigers -170 · Texas A&M Aggies +140
Oct 5 3:57 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-115)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -180 · Texas A&M Aggies +150
Oct 6 12:12 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-115)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -180 · Texas A&M Aggies +150
Oct 6 6:00 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-115)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -180 · Texas A&M Aggies +150
Oct 6 11:12 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-110)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -180 · Texas A&M Aggies +150
Oct 6 12:43 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-115)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -180 · Texas A&M Aggies +150
Oct 6 8:03 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-110)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -180 · Texas A&M Aggies +150
Oct 7 2:03 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-110)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -180 · Texas A&M Aggies +150
Oct 7 2:33 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -175 · Texas A&M Aggies +145
Oct 7 10:07 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -170 · Texas A&M Aggies +140
Oct 8 8:30 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -170 · Texas A&M Aggies +140
Oct 8 10:01 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -170 · Texas A&M Aggies +140
Oct 8 12:02 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -170 · Texas A&M Aggies +140
Oct 8 12:32 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -170 · Texas A&M Aggies +140
Oct 8 2:32 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-105)Missouri Tigers -170 · Texas A&M Aggies +140
Oct 8 5:17 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -170 · Texas A&M Aggies +140
Oct 8 5:47 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)49 (-110)Missouri Tigers -170 · Texas A&M Aggies +140
Oct 8 8:47 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -170 · Texas A&M Aggies +140
Oct 9 5:00 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -175 · Texas A&M Aggies +145
Oct 9 12:31 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-110)48.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -175 · Texas A&M Aggies +145
Oct 9 3:32 PMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -180 · Texas A&M Aggies +150
Oct 10 8:00 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -175 · Texas A&M Aggies +145
Oct 10 8:45 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -175 · Texas A&M Aggies +145
Oct 10 9:00 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-105)50.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -175 · Texas A&M Aggies +145
Oct 10 10:12 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -180 · Texas A&M Aggies +150
Oct 10 10:42 AMMissouri Tigers -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -180 · Texas A&M Aggies +150
Oct 10 11:08 AMMissouri Tigers -4 (-110)50.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -190 · Texas A&M Aggies +155
Oct 10 11:18 AMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-105)50.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -195 · Texas A&M Aggies +160
CLOSEOct 10 11:59 AMMissouri Tigers -4.5 (-110)50.5 (-115)Missouri Tigers -200 · Texas A&M Aggies +165

The read

Clear skies and 75 degrees for an 11 a.m. kickoff in Columbia. It's the 24th straight sellout at Memorial Stadium, and a Missouri team fresh off a 45-17 rout of Florida hosts the program that has beaten it three straight times.

I'm setting that history aside because of the quarterback. In the last two meetings Missouri started Brady Cook and then Matt Zollers. Zollers went 7 of 22 for 77 yards in that debut. Austin Simmons has 13 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions and 9.34 yards per attempt. Against Mississippi State and Florida, the only SEC teams on the schedule so far and both now 4-1 and ranked, Simmons threw for 295 and 340 yards. Marcel Reed is completing 57.0% at 6.09 yards per attempt. Against the two good SEC defenses Reed has faced, the line was 26 of 49 with 2 interceptions against Kentucky and 10 of 26 for 106 yards at LSU.

This is how Missouri wins by more than a field goal. Simmons will get time to throw. Texas A&M has 5 sacks all season, and Simmons has been sacked 6 times in five games. Mike Elko said it himself this week: "If he doesn't get out of rhythm, we're going to really struggle to control him." Kentucky averaged 14.0 yards per attempt against this secondary and LSU averaged 11.1, mostly through busted coverages underneath and missed tackles in space. Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode have 300 combined yards after the catch, so they are built to punish exactly that.

On the other side, Missouri's front allows 2.6 yards per carry and stuffs 26.1% of runs. The Aggies want to run the ball to stay on schedule and set up play action. If Missouri wins early downs, Reed has to drop back into a pass rush with 15 sacks. That is the same version of the A&M offense that broke down at LSU.

The Aggie case is real, and it's why I'm laying the points at -106 instead of the heavier moneyline. A&M scores 4.469 points per scoring opportunity and allows 2.826. Opponents convert only 26.4% of third downs, and the defense has 9 takeaways. David Olano is 7 for 7 with a 57-yard make, and Eli Drinkwitz named Reed's running as the top priority this week. Still, much of that case depends on Missouri making mistakes it hasn't been making, with 2 giveaways in five games.

Against opponents now 4-1, Missouri is plus 21 and Texas A&M is minus 39. A&M's wins came against teams now 1-4, 2-2 and 2-3, and its only road trip ended 35-6 at LSU. At home, Missouri has the better quarterback, the better pass rush and the better results against quality opponents, so I'll lay the 3.5 at this price.

Injuries noted

Texas A&M Aggies: Terry Bussey (out for season) — Wide receiver; injury sustained against Kentucky. Friday availability report lists him out.; Blake Ivy (out) — Offensive lineman who previously started at left guard; Friday report lists him out without an explanation.; Mario Craver (questionable) — Wide receiver; Friday designation remains questionable. Separate October 9 reporting expects a game-time decision for an undisclosed injury.

Missouri Tigers: JaDon Blair (out) — Safety; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; Malae Fonoti (out) — Running back; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; Ahmad Hardy (out) — Running back; Friday report unchanged. Report discusses recovery from an offseason gunshot wound.; Josh Atkins (out) — Offensive lineman; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; Gavin Hoffman (out) — Tight end; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; Robert Woodyard Jr. (questionable) — Linebacker; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; DaMarion Fowlkes (questionable) — Wide receiver; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; Kensley Louidor-Faustin (questionable) — Safety; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; Langden Kitchen (questionable) — Edge defender; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; Santana Banner (questionable) — Safety; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; Darris Smith (questionable) — Edge defender; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; Cayden Green (questionable) — Offensive lineman; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; Jaden Jones (probable) — Edge defender; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; Bobby Washington Jr. (probable) — Linebacker; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; Jahlil Florence (probable) — Cornerback; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.; Brett Norfleet (probable) — Tight end; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Austin Simmons is MIZ's confirmed starter

    9.34 Y/A

    Austin Simmons is MIZ's confirmed starting quarterback. Robert Behrens' October 5 preview explicitly identifies Simmons as Missouri's starting quarterback for the Texas A&M matchup; Missouri's October 8 official preview also discusses him. 2026 line: 1270 passing yards, 67.6% completions, 9.34 yards per attempt, 13-0 TD-INT over 5 games.

  • Marcel Reed is TA&M's confirmed starter

    6.09 Y/A

    Marcel Reed is TA&M's confirmed starting quarterback. Cameron Ohnysty's October 9 Missouri game report explicitly identifies Reed as Texas A&M's starting quarterback and discusses his role against Missouri. 2026 line: 908 passing yards, 57.0% completions, 6.09 yards per attempt, 6-4 TD-INT over 5 games.

TURNOVERS

  • MIZ: 0.4 turnovers committed per game to TA&M's 1.2

    0.8 TO

    Missouri has turned it over just 0.4 times a game through 5 games, well below 1.31 last season, while Texas A&M is at 1.2, near its 1.46 last year. Very low turnover rates rarely last, so expect Missouri to give a few away. The edge in ball security leans Missouri, but by less than this gap suggests.

MISMATCH

  • MIZ: 275 pass yards a game to TA&M's 188.8

    275 VS 188.8

    Missouri is throwing for 275 yards a game through 5 games, Texas A&M 188.8. The two have swapped places from last season, when A&M threw for 259.8 and Missouri 188. Five games is a decent read, though some of that swing could come from the defenses each has faced. A&M likely needs to win this on the ground and keep Missouri's passing game off the field, so how A&M runs early tells you a lot about how this goes.

REPLACEMENT

  • Terry Bussey (WR) is out for the season for TA&M

    OUT FOR SEASON

    Wide receiver; injury sustained against Kentucky. Friday availability report lists him out. Craver again 'questionable' ahead of A&M-MIZ — TexAgs, Richard Zane; includes October 9 Friday update (2026-10-07) Texas A&M’s Ivy out, Craver questionable for Missouri in first availability report — KBTX, Travis L. Brown; published 19:52 CDT (2026-10-07)

  • Blake Ivy (OL) is out for TA&M

    OUT

    Offensive lineman who previously started at left guard; Friday report lists him out without an explanation. Craver again 'questionable' ahead of A&M-MIZ — TexAgs, Richard Zane; includes October 9 Friday update (2026-10-07) Texas A&M’s Ivy out, Craver questionable for Missouri in first availability report — KBTX, Travis L. Brown; published 19:52 CDT (2026-10-07)

  • JaDon Blair (S) is out for MIZ

    OUT

    Safety; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified. Craver again 'questionable' ahead of A&M-MIZ — TexAgs, Richard Zane; includes October 9 Friday update (2026-10-07)

  • Malae Fonoti (RB) is out for MIZ

    OUT

    Running back; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified. Craver again 'questionable' ahead of A&M-MIZ — TexAgs, Richard Zane; includes October 9 Friday update (2026-10-07)

  • Ahmad Hardy (RB) is out for MIZ

    OUT

    Running back; Friday report unchanged. Report discusses recovery from an offseason gunshot wound. Craver again 'questionable' ahead of A&M-MIZ — TexAgs, Richard Zane; includes October 9 Friday update (2026-10-07)

  • Josh Atkins (OL) is out for MIZ

    OUT

    Offensive lineman; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified. Craver again 'questionable' ahead of A&M-MIZ — TexAgs, Richard Zane; includes October 9 Friday update (2026-10-07)

  • Gavin Hoffman (TE) is out for MIZ

    OUT

    Tight end; Friday report unchanged. Condition unspecified. Craver again 'questionable' ahead of A&M-MIZ — TexAgs, Richard Zane; includes October 9 Friday update (2026-10-07)

TEAM RECORD

  • SEC game: TA&M 1-2, MIZ 1-1 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the SEC. TA&M is 1-2 against it, MIZ is 1-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-10.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 10, 2026 at 8:14 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanatics, fanduel, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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