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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 10 · 4:15 PM

Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks

O/U 51.5 · SPREAD Tennessee Volunteers -13.5 · Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR

GARY'S PICK
Tennessee -13.5
NCAAF@ Arkansas· -110
LOST · TENN 24 · ARK 17

Tennessee
-13.5

-110 · LOST · TENN 24 · ARK 17

Arkansas

The pick & result

Published pick
Tennessee Volunteers -13.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Lost
Final score
24-17

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

FANATICS · 23 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 4 6:00 AM		Close
Oct 10 1:09 PM		Move
SPREADTennessee Volunteers -14.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-115)−1
TOTAL54.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)−3
MONEYLINETennessee Volunteers -700Tennessee Volunteers -575+125
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 4 6:00 AMTennessee Volunteers -14.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -700 · Arkansas Razorbacks +500
Oct 4 7:30 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)52 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -525 · Arkansas Razorbacks +390
Oct 4 8:30 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -525 · Arkansas Razorbacks +390
Oct 4 10:31 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -525 · Arkansas Razorbacks +390
Oct 4 11:31 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 4 12:31 PMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-115)50 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -600 · Arkansas Razorbacks +440
Oct 4 4:56 PMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)50 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 4 11:52 PMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 5 6:00 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-115)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 5 7:12 PMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51.5 (-105)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 6 8:30 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 6 7:02 PMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 6 8:33 PMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -550 · Arkansas Razorbacks +410
Oct 6 9:33 PMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 7 12:04 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51.5 (-105)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 7 12:34 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 7 7:00 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51.5 (-105)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 7 7:30 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 7 8:30 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -550 · Arkansas Razorbacks +410
Oct 9 6:00 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -550 · Arkansas Razorbacks +410
Oct 9 3:02 PMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 10 9:52 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-115)51.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
Oct 10 10:09 AMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-115)51.5 (-105)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425
CLOSEOct 10 1:09 PMTennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-115)51.5 (-110)Tennessee Volunteers -575 · Arkansas Razorbacks +425

The read

Fayetteville gets Tennessee’s first SEC road game of the season, with George MacIntyre reportedly headed for his first start. Arkansas returns home looking to turn a struggling offense into something that can sustain this game.

I’m laying the points because Tennessee has a credible route to separation through its running game and defense. DeSean Bishop and Daune Morris face an Arkansas defense that allowed 254 rushing yards to Georgia and 231 to Texas A&M. Tennessee can build its offense around that matchup while asking MacIntyre to complement the ground game. Arkansas’s eight sacks across five games give me less reason to expect the protection problems Tennessee encountered against Auburn to dominate again.

On the other side, Arkansas’s rushing offense averages 92.2 yards per game. I expect Tennessee’s defensive front to make sustaining possessions difficult and force Jackson into passing situations where its disruption matters. Tennessee recorded 14 sacks against its three Power Four opponents. That production carries more weight here than sacks accumulated against its easier opponents.

Arkansas has a legitimate answer in Chris Marshall, and Jackson threw for 210 yards at home against Georgia. The problem is converting that passing production into enough scoring. Arkansas averages 3.267 points per scoring opportunity, while Tennessee allows 2.250. My expectation is that Arkansas leaves too many possessions unfinished while Tennessee’s rushing attack supplies repeated chances to extend its lead.

MacIntyre’s limited experience is the strongest objection to laying this number. Tennessee also beat Auburn by only ten despite three takeaways. I’m choosing the favorite because Arkansas’s defensive matchup gives Tennessee a way to produce offense without requiring its new starter to carry the game, while Tennessee’s front attacks the central weakness of Arkansas’s offense.

Injuries noted

Tennessee Volunteers: Ethan Davis (out) — TE #0 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Javin Gordon (questionable) — RB #6 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Joakim Dodson (out) — WR #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Faizon Brandon (questionable) — QB #11 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Jaedon Harmon (out) — LB #12 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Edrees Farooq (out) — DB #15 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Dylan Lewis (out) — DB #24 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Kedric Golston II (out) — DL #37 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Wendell Moe Jr. (out) — OL #75 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

Arkansas Razorbacks: Steven Soles Jr. (questionable) — DL #35 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Maddox Lassiter (out) — TE #47 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • George MacIntyre is TENN's projected starter

    7.40 Y/A

    George MacIntyre is TENN's projected starting quarterback. October 9 reporting says MacIntyre is reportedly set to start against Arkansas; the retrieved report does not establish an official starter announcement. 2026 line: 148 passing yards, 70.0% completions, 7.40 yards per attempt, 1-0 TD-INT over 3 games.

  • KJ Jackson is ARK's confirmed starter

    6.68 Y/A

    KJ Jackson is ARK's confirmed starting quarterback. Tennessee's October 9 official preview explicitly identifies Jackson as Arkansas's starting quarterback for the October 10 matchup. 2026 line: 1036 passing yards, 60.6% completions, 6.68 yards per attempt, 5-4 TD-INT over 5 games.

TRENCHES

  • TENN: 239.8 rushing yards per game to ARK's 92

    147.8 YPG

    Tennessee runs for 239.8 yards a game while Arkansas is down to 92 from 191.9 last season, a huge drop over five games. TENN improved from 173.5. Arkansas's ground game should recover some, but for now TENN controls the pace in this matchup.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • TENN: 36.8 points per game to ARK's 19.8

    17 PPG

    Tennessee scores 36.8 points a game, close to last season's 39.8. Arkansas has fallen to 19.8 from 32.9 last season, over five games. That drop is large and likely to recover some, so don't assume Arkansas stays at this level.

  • TENN: 15.2 points allowed per game to ARK's 28.4

    13.2 PPG

    Tennessee is allowing 15.2 points a game after giving up 28.8 last season, a huge swing over five games. Arkansas is allowing 28.4, slightly better than its 33.8 last season but still a defense that gives up points. Tennessee's turnaround is the number most likely to move back up as the schedule gets tougher. On the road at Arkansas, think about whether Tennessee's defense keeps this up against a real offense before assuming a low-scoring game.

MISMATCH

  • TENN: 239.8 rush yards a game to ARK's 92

    239.8 VS 92

    Tennessee is running for 239.8 yards a game over five games, up from 173.5 last season, while Arkansas has fallen to 92 from 191.9. Arkansas losing half its rushing output is the bigger story, and five games suggests a real problem. Tennessee can wear Arkansas down on the ground even on the road. Arkansas has to find offense through the air to keep up.

REPLACEMENT

  • Ethan Davis (TE) is out for TENN

    OUT

    TE #0 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Joakim Dodson (WR) is out for TENN

    OUT

    WR #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Jaedon Harmon (LB) is out for TENN

    OUT

    LB #12 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Edrees Farooq (DB) is out for TENN

    OUT

    DB #15 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Dylan Lewis (DB) is out for TENN

    OUT

    DB #24 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Kedric Golston II (DL) is out for TENN

    OUT

    DL #37 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Wendell Moe Jr. (OL) is out for TENN

    OUT

    OL #75 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Maddox Lassiter (TE) is out for ARK

    OUT

    TE #47 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

TEAM RECORD

  • SEC game: TENN 1-1, ARK 0-2 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the SEC. TENN is 1-1 against it, ARK is 0-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-10.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 10, 2026 at 8:14 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, draftkings, betrivers, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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