LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats

Injuries noted

LSU Tigers: Trey'Dez Green (out) — TE #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Whit Weeks (out) — LB #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Dashawn Spears (out) — S #10 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Phillip Wright III (out) — WR #15 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Charles Ross II (out) — LB #26 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

Kentucky Wildcats: Antwan Smith (out) — ILB #4 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Alex Afari Jr. (out) — ILB #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jaden Smith (out) — DB #24 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Tavion Wallace (out) — ILB #25 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Grant Grayton (out) — DB #30 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Aba Selm (out) — OL #55 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Kalen Edwards (out) — DL #93 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

QUARTERBACK

• Sam Leavitt is LSU's projected starter

  8.78 Y/A

  Sam Leavitt is LSU's projected starting quarterback. October 9 game reporting discusses Leavitt as LSU's quarterback for Kentucky and reports his Tuesday statement that he expected to be fully recovered from a minor hamstring issue by Saturday. An explicit game-day starting announcement was not retrieved. 2026 line: 1220 passing yards, 66.2% completions, 8.78 yards per attempt, 8-7 TD-INT over 5 games.

• Kenny Minchey is UK's projected starter

  8.19 Y/A

  Kenny Minchey is UK's projected starting quarterback. LSU's October 9 official game preview identifies Minchey as Kentucky's leading quarterback for the October 10 matchup; an explicit game-day starting announcement was not retrieved. 2026 line: 1130 passing yards, 68.1% completions, 8.19 yards per attempt, 10-1 TD-INT over 5 games.

TRENCHES

• LSU: 58.6 rushing yards allowed per game to UK's 140.2

  81.6 YPG

  LSU allows 58.6 rushing yards a game over five games, and Kentucky allows 140.2. LSU's front has shut down the run so far, though the sheet doesn't show who it played. Kentucky's run defense sits closer to average. If Kentucky wants to run, it would be running into a strength. LSU has the better path to balance on offense.

PACE & SCRIPT

• LSU: 15.2 points allowed per game to UK's 26.8

  11.6 PPG

  LSU is allowing 15.2 points a game, better than 19.8 last season, while Kentucky allows 26.8, almost the same as its 26.4 last year. LSU's defense has improved over five games and Kentucky looks like the same unit as last season. Some regression for LSU is possible as the schedule tightens. On the road at Kentucky, LSU's defense gives it an edge if it keeps playing like this.

• LSU: 43.6 points per game to UK's 34.6

  9 PPG

  LSU is at 43.6 points per game over 5 games; UK is at 34.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 9. Last season LSU was at 22.8 over 13 games and UK at 23 over 12 games.

MISMATCH

• LSU: 51.9% on third down to UK's 23.1%

  51.9 VS 23.1

  The widest gap between these two is third down: LSU's offense converted 51.9% of its own third downs over 5 games; UK's offense converted 23.1% of its own third downs over 5 games this season. Last season LSU was at 36.8% over 13 games and UK at 40.3% over 12 games.

COVERAGE

• LSU: 26.1% third downs allowed to UK's 44.4%

  18.4 PP

  LSU allows just 26.1% third-down conversions over five games, while Kentucky allows 44.4%. Paired with LSU's low rushing number, its defense is getting off the field. Third-down rates move more than yardage, so expect some drift. Kentucky drives are more likely to stall, while LSU should sustain more drives.

• LSU: 162.2 passing yards allowed per game to UK's 231.4

  69.2 YPG

  LSU has allowed 162.2 passing yards a game over 5 games, Kentucky 231.4. Kentucky has been easier to throw on, with no schedule context on the sheet to explain it away. LSU's passing game gets the better matchup on the road, which is relevant for its quarterback's yardage and for how the total plays.

REPLACEMENT

• Phillip Wright III (WR) is out for LSU

  OUT

  WR #15 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Trey'Dez Green (TE) is out for LSU

  OUT

  TE #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Whit Weeks (LB) is out for LSU

  OUT

  LB #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Dashawn Spears (S) is out for LSU

  OUT

  S #10 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Charles Ross II (LB) is out for LSU

  OUT

  LB #26 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Antwan Smith (LB) is out for UK

  OUT

  ILB #4 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Alex Afari Jr. (LB) is out for UK

  OUT

  ILB #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Jaden Smith (DB) is out for UK

  OUT

  DB #24 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Tavion Wallace (LB) is out for UK

  OUT

  ILB #25 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Grant Grayton (DB) is out for UK

  OUT

  DB #30 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Aba Selm (OL) is out for UK

  OUT

  OL #55 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Kalen Edwards (DL) is out for UK

  OUT

  DL #93 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

SITUATIONAL

• LSU: 51.9% third-down conversion rate to UK's 23.1%

  28.8 PP

  LSU is moving the chains on more than half its third downs, while Kentucky converts fewer than one in four, so LSU should own the long drives and Kentucky will punt often. Both numbers are five-game samples, and both teams have swung far from last season: LSU was at 36.8% and Kentucky at 40.3%. Expect each side to drift back toward the middle. LSU likely controls the clock in this one, though Kentucky's third-down rate looks too low to stay there all year.

• LSU: 310 team passing yards per game to UK's 226

  84 YPG

  LSU is throwing for 310 a game, up from 229.5 last season, while Kentucky sits at 226, also up from 201.9. That LSU jump over five games is big enough to suggest a real change in how they attack, though early schedules can inflate passing numbers. Expect some pullback toward last season. Going on the road to Kentucky, LSU's passing game is the side most likely to set the tempo, so lean on how Kentucky has defended the pass before trusting the full 310.

• LSU: 28.4 first downs per game to UK's 21

  7.4 FD

  LSU is at 28.4 first downs per game over 5 games; UK is at 21 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 9. Last season LSU was at 18.7 over 13 games and UK at 19.8 over 12 games.

TEAM RECORD

• SEC game: LSU 1-1, UK 2-1 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  These two share the SEC. LSU is 1-1 against it, UK is 2-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-10.

AFTER GARY

• LSU -8.5 → -9.5

  GARY +1

  Gary's number was -8.5; the same book now shows -9.5.