Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devils
O/U 50.5 · SPREAD Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 · Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +20.5 -104
- Published odds
- -104
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 12-30
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 24 moves| Market | Opened Oct 4 3:26 PM | Close Oct 10 7:37 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Arizona State Sun Devils -22.5 (-108) | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-115) | −2 |
| TOTAL | 51.5 (-118) | 51.5 (-110) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Arizona State Sun Devils -2000 | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 | +400 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 4 3:26 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -22.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-118) | Arizona State Sun Devils -2000 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +1200 |
| Oct 4 3:56 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -21.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-108) | Arizona State Sun Devils -2000 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +1200 |
| Oct 4 4:56 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -21 (-118) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +1050 |
| Oct 5 6:00 AM | Arizona State Sun Devils -21.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +1000 |
| Oct 5 3:57 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-102) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1400 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +950 |
| Oct 6 6:00 AM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-105) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1400 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +950 |
| Oct 6 12:12 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-108) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1400 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +950 |
| Oct 6 1:43 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-105) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1400 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +950 |
| Oct 6 7:32 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-112) | 50.5 (-105) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +1050 |
| Oct 7 6:00 AM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-112) | 49.5 (-120) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +1050 |
| Oct 7 11:02 AM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-120) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1400 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +950 |
| Oct 7 3:33 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-112) | 49.5 (-120) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1400 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +950 |
| Oct 7 6:36 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-120) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1400 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +950 |
| Oct 7 8:36 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-112) | 49.5 (-120) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +1000 |
| Oct 8 8:00 AM | Arizona State Sun Devils -21 (-108) | 50.5 (-118) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +1050 |
| Oct 8 10:31 AM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-112) | 49.5 (-118) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +1000 |
| Oct 8 1:02 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-120) | 49.5 (-115) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +900 |
| Oct 8 3:33 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-120) | 50.5 (-110) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +900 |
| Oct 9 2:32 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +900 |
| Oct 9 8:33 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-115) | 50.5 (-110) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +900 |
| Oct 10 9:42 AM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-115) | 50.5 (-110) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +900 |
| Oct 10 10:32 AM | Arizona State Sun Devils -21 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +900 |
| Oct 10 5:14 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -21 (-110) | 51.5 (-115) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +900 |
| Oct 10 5:55 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-110) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +900 |
| CLOSEOct 10 7:37 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 (-115) | 51.5 (-110) | Arizona State Sun Devils -1600 · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +900 |
The read
Saturday night in Tempe brings together two teams trying to recover from disappointing losses. Arizona State finishes its nonconference schedule at home, while Hawai‘i arrives looking to turn productive possessions into points.
I’m taking Hawai‘i’s points because its passing game gives it a workable way to stay within this number. Micah Alejado threw for 341 yards against San José State, with Devin Alves contributing 121 receiving yards. My read is that Hawai‘i can generate enough scoring chances through the air to keep Arizona State from pulling comfortably away. Lyrik Rawls’ absence adds a new challenge for the Sun Devils’ secondary because their previous defensive results all included him.
Arizona State has a convincing offensive weapon in Reed Harris, whose 499 receiving yards include substantial production against FBS opponents. Hawai‘i must limit those damaging completions. Marcus Arroyo’s return to play calling also gives ASU a chance to improve its offensive execution.
The concern with laying this spread is how Arizona State sustains that separation. Its scoring totals against FBS opponents are 20, 24 and 19, and the Kansas victory included two non-offensive touchdowns. Its rushing average against those opponents was 3.4 yards per carry. I expect Hawai‘i to make ASU work through possessions rather than consistently give it an easy route to touchdowns.
Hawai‘i’s finishing problems are the biggest threat to this ticket. It scored just three first-half points over its last two games and committed 12 penalties against San José State. Those mistakes can waste the passing production that makes the cover possible. I expect enough productive possessions to become points tonight, while ASU’s uneven offense makes sustaining a margin beyond 20.5 demanding. That combination makes Hawai‘i +20.5 at -104 my best ticket.
Injuries noted
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: Pofele Ashlock (out) — Wide receiver; knee injury.; Robert Haynes IV (out) — Wide receiver; preview spells his surname Hayes. Condition unspecified.; Carson Brown (questionable) — Wide receiver; condition unspecified in the current preview.; Tre' Griffiths (questionable) — Wide receiver; condition unspecified.; Audric Harris (questionable) — Wide receiver; condition unspecified.; Anthony Hickman (questionable) — Tight end; condition unspecified.; Isaac Jaramilla-Phe (questionable) — Quarterback; condition unspecified.; Oakie Salave'a (questionable) — Tight end; condition unspecified.
Arizona State Sun Devils: Lyrik Rawls (out) — Starting safety; knee injury. Dillingham said October 7 he would be unavailable for the near future.; Khamari Anderson (out) — Tight end; condition unspecified in the current preview.; Maurice Williams (out) — Safety; condition unspecified.; Jalen Williams (out) — Defensive back; condition unspecified.; Marques Uini (out) — Offensive lineman; preview spells his name Marquis Uni. Condition unspecified.; Brent Helton (out) — Offensive lineman; condition unspecified.; Zyrus Fiaseu (out) — Linebacker; condition unspecified in the current preview.; Nigel Pringle (out) — Cornerback; condition unspecified.; MyKeil Gardner (out) — Defensive lineman; condition unspecified in the current preview.; Wade Helton (questionable) — Offensive lineman; condition unspecified in the current preview.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Cutter Boley is ASU's projected starter
8.19 Y/ACutter Boley is ASU's projected starting quarterback. The October 8 game preview discusses Boley as ASU's quarterback against Hawai'i and quotes his offensive coordinator evaluating him. It does not provide a game-day starter announcement. 2026 line: 1040 passing yards, 61.4% completions, 8.19 yards per attempt, 10-3 TD-INT over 4 games.
Micah Alejado is HAW's projected starter
6.32 Y/AMicah Alejado is HAW's projected starting quarterback. The October 8 game preview explicitly discusses Alejado leading Hawai'i against ASU. It does not provide a game-day starter announcement. 2026 line: 1358 passing yards, 60.9% completions, 6.32 yards per attempt, 4-3 TD-INT over 5 games.
TRENCHES
ASU: 149 rushing yards per game to HAW's 86
63 YPGArizona State runs for 149 a game while Hawaii runs for 86, but Arizona State's number is down sharply from 193.6 last season and comes from only four games. Hawaii is also below last season's 103.2. Arizona State's ground game could climb back toward last year's level. At home against Hawaii, expect Arizona State to lean on the run and use it to control the clock.
PACE & SCRIPT
ASU: 33.3 points per game to HAW's 17.6
15.6 PPGArizona State is scoring nearly twice what Hawaii is. Hawaii put up 29 a game last season, so 17.6 over five games is a steep drop, while ASU jumped from 25.8 on only four games. Both gaps are probably wider than they will stay. Hawaii's offense has more room to bounce back than ASU's has to keep climbing, and the long road trip to Tempe makes that harder.
TURNOVERS
HAW: 1 turnover committed per game to ASU's 2
1 TOHawaii is committing 1 turnover a game, slightly better than 1.38 last season, while Arizona State is at 2 over four games, up from 1.62. Four games is a small sample, and turnover rates tend to settle back toward normal. On the road at Arizona State, Hawaii has been the cleaner team, but expect Arizona State's turnover rate to drop.
MISMATCH
ASU: 149 rush yards a game to HAW's 86
149 VS 86Arizona State runs for 149 yards a game over 4 games, Hawaii 86 over 5. ASU ran for 193.6 last season, so its ground game is down but still far ahead of Hawaii, which sat at 103.2. Hawaii's run game has been weak two years running, so that number should mostly hold. Hawaii will likely have to throw to move the ball, and ASU can lean on the run to control the clock at home.
REPLACEMENT
Pofele Ashlock (WR) is out for HAW
OUTWide receiver; knee injury. Arizona State vs Hawaii. How the teams match up and who will win — Michelle Gardner, Arizona Republic, via AOL; published 17:35 UTC (2026-10-08)
Robert Haynes IV (WR) is out for HAW
OUTWide receiver; preview spells his surname Hayes. Condition unspecified. Arizona State vs Hawaii. How the teams match up and who will win — Michelle Gardner, Arizona Republic, via AOL; published 17:35 UTC (2026-10-08)
Lyrik Rawls (DB) is out for ASU
OUTStarting safety; knee injury. Dillingham said October 7 he would be unavailable for the near future. Arizona State vs Hawaii. How the teams match up and who will win — Michelle Gardner, Arizona Republic, via AOL; published 17:35 UTC (2026-10-08) Arizona State’s Secondary Just Took a Big Hit — Heartland College Sports; published 12:19 pm, timezone unspecified (2026-10-08)
Khamari Anderson (TE) is out for ASU
OUTTight end; condition unspecified in the current preview. Arizona State vs Hawaii. How the teams match up and who will win — Michelle Gardner, Arizona Republic, via AOL; published 17:35 UTC (2026-10-08)
Maurice Williams (S) is out for ASU
OUTSafety; condition unspecified. Arizona State vs Hawaii. How the teams match up and who will win — Michelle Gardner, Arizona Republic, via AOL; published 17:35 UTC (2026-10-08)
Jalen Williams (DB) is out for ASU
OUTDefensive back; condition unspecified. Arizona State vs Hawaii. How the teams match up and who will win — Michelle Gardner, Arizona Republic, via AOL; published 17:35 UTC (2026-10-08)
Marques Uini (OL) is out for ASU
OUTOffensive lineman; preview spells his name Marquis Uni. Condition unspecified. Arizona State vs Hawaii. How the teams match up and who will win — Michelle Gardner, Arizona Republic, via AOL; published 17:35 UTC (2026-10-08)
Brent Helton (OL) is out for ASU
OUTOffensive lineman; condition unspecified. Arizona State vs Hawaii. How the teams match up and who will win — Michelle Gardner, Arizona Republic, via AOL; published 17:35 UTC (2026-10-08)
Zyrus Fiaseu (LB) is out for ASU
OUTLinebacker; condition unspecified in the current preview. Arizona State vs Hawaii. How the teams match up and who will win — Michelle Gardner, Arizona Republic, via AOL; published 17:35 UTC (2026-10-08)
Nigel Pringle (DB) is out for ASU
OUTCornerback; condition unspecified. Arizona State vs Hawaii. How the teams match up and who will win — Michelle Gardner, Arizona Republic, via AOL; published 17:35 UTC (2026-10-08)
MyKeil Gardner (DL) is out for ASU
OUTDefensive lineman; condition unspecified in the current preview. Arizona State vs Hawaii. How the teams match up and who will win — Michelle Gardner, Arizona Republic, via AOL; published 17:35 UTC (2026-10-08)
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 10, 2026 at 8:14 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, draftkings, betrivers, caesars.
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- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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