Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs

Injuries noted

Texas State Bobcats: Torrance Burgess Jr. (probable) — RB; undisclosed injury. October 2 update upgrades him from questionable for the SDSU game.; Zechariah Sample (probable) — WR; undisclosed injury. October 2 update upgrades him from questionable for the SDSU game.; Cole Snodgrass (out) — TE; undisclosed injury. September 30 report specifically rules him out against SDSU.; Blake Smith (out) — TE; foot injury. September 30 report specifically rules him out against SDSU.; Beau Sparks (questionable) — WR; undisclosed condition. September 30 report supplies the designation for the SDSU game.; Kylen Evans (questionable) — WR; shoulder injury. September 30 report supplies the designation for the SDSU game.

San Diego State Aztecs: Lucky Sutton (out) — Starting RB; ankle injury.; Javion Kinnard (out) — RB; apparent knee injury. October 3 reporting describes him as out after the earlier doubtful designation.; Stone Saunders (out) — Backup QB; broken collarbone.; Aldrich Doe (out) — WR; undisclosed.; Braylon Cardwell (out) — DB; undisclosed.; Dalesean Staley (out) — DB; undisclosed.; Jack Ellis (out) — TE; availability report supplies no medical reason.; Luke Williams (out) — Long snapper; undisclosed.; Roman Paseka (out) — DL; undisclosed.; Tuaoa Tauili'ili (out) — DL; undisclosed.; Jack Lua (out) — TE; October 3 update supersedes the earlier doubtful designation; undisclosed.; Elijah Muliufi (doubtful) — TE; undisclosed.; Harlem Nellum (doubtful) — OL; undisclosed.; Jackson Ford (doubtful) — Starting TE; undisclosed.; Jeramiah Lewis (doubtful) — Inside linebacker; undisclosed.; Dean Harrington (questionable) — Inside linebacker; undisclosed.; Justius Lowe (questionable) — WR; undisclosed.; Kime Fangupo (questionable) — TE; undisclosed.; Ryan Wolfer (questionable) — TE; undisclosed.; Bert Emanuel Jr. (probable) — WR; undisclosed.; Carson Diehl (probable) — WR; undisclosed.; Dennis Jones (probable) — Right tackle; undisclosed.; Donovan Brown (probable) — WR; undisclosed.; Isaac Lucas (probable) — Center; undisclosed.; Jacob Bostick (probable) — WR; undisclosed.; Jalen Thomeson (probable) — DB; undisclosed.; Kai Wallin (probable) — Outside linebacker; undisclosed.; Kaimana Tufaga (probable) — DB; undisclosed.; Kalan Ellis (probable) — Left guard; undisclosed.; Krishna Clay (probable) — DL; undisclosed.; Parker Threatt (probable) — WR; undisclosed.

QUARTERBACK

• Brad Jackson is TXST's projected starter

  9.02 Y/A

  Brad Jackson is TXST's projected starting quarterback. The October 3 matchup report discusses Jackson as Texas State's quarterback against SDSU. The school's October 1 preview also discusses him; no explicit game-day starter announcement was retrieved. 2026 line: 857 passing yards, 68.4% completions, 9.02 yards per attempt, 10-3 TD-INT over 4 games.

• Jayden Denegal is SDSU's projected starter

  6.09 Y/A

  Jayden Denegal is SDSU's projected starting quarterback. Current-week reporting discusses Denegal continuing against Texas State and quotes Sean Lewis discussing his play calling for him. No explicit game-day starter announcement was retrieved. 2026 line: 597 passing yards, 56.1% completions, 6.09 yards per attempt, 5-5 TD-INT over 4 games.

TRENCHES

• TXST: 113.3 rushing yards allowed per game to SDSU's 172.5

  59.3 YPG

  TXST is at 113.3 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; SDSU is at 172.5 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 2.

PACE & SCRIPT

• TXST: 36.3 points per game to SDSU's 23

  13.3 PPG

  Texas State is scoring 36.3 a game, nearly the same as last season's 36.5, and San Diego State is at 23 after 26.4. Both numbers look stable through four games. Texas State's offense has kept up its scoring from last year, so it brings that edge into San Diego State, which will need to slow the pace and keep the game low-scoring.

• TXST @ SDSU carries a 57.5 market total

  57.5

  Texas State at San Diego State carries 57.5, 5.5 above the slate median of 52, so the market sees more scoring than the typical game tonight. The sheet offers no team numbers behind it. The gap is moderate, so the under only needs a few drives to stall short of the end zone for this game to settle back toward a normal total.

MISMATCH

• TXST: 281.3 rush yards a game to SDSU's 155.3

  281.3 VS 155.3

  Texas State is running for 281.3 a game over 4 games, up from 222.1 last season, while San Diego State has fallen to 155.3 from 198.7. Texas State has a track record on the ground, so this is partly who they are, while SDSU's drop looks more likely to recover some. SDSU at home needs to stop the run on early downs to keep this from becoming a long afternoon of Texas State drives.

COVERAGE

• SDSU: 240.3 passing yards allowed per game to TXST's 346

  105.8 YPG

  San Diego State allows 240.3 passing yards a game over four games, and Texas State allows 346, which is a lot of air yards. Both secondaries give up real yards, but Texas State's is far easier to throw on. Without opponent detail, the Texas State number may be inflated by facing pass-heavy teams, yet 346 a game is tough to fully explain away. At home, San Diego State gets the better passing matchup, which shapes how you view its offense and the total.

REPLACEMENT

• Luke Williams (LS) is out for SDSU

  OUT

  Long snapper; undisclosed. San Diego State’s availability report changes again ahead of Pac-12 opener (2026-10-02)

• Jack Ellis (TE) is out for SDSU

  OUT

  TE; availability report supplies no medical reason. San Diego State’s availability report changes again ahead of Pac-12 opener (2026-10-02)

• Dalesean Staley (S) is out for SDSU

  OUT

  DB; undisclosed. San Diego State’s availability report changes again ahead of Pac-12 opener (2026-10-02)

• Braylon Cardwell (CB) is out for SDSU

  OUT

  DB; undisclosed. San Diego State’s availability report changes again ahead of Pac-12 opener (2026-10-02)

• Jack Lua (TE) is out for SDSU

  OUT

  TE; October 3 update supersedes the earlier doubtful designation; undisclosed. San Diego State News, Schedule, and Roster | RotoWire — October 3 player updates (2026-10-03)

• Tuaoa Tauili'ili (DL) is out for SDSU

  OUT

  DL; undisclosed. San Diego State’s availability report changes again ahead of Pac-12 opener (2026-10-02)

• Roman Paseka (DL) is out for SDSU

  OUT

  DL; undisclosed. San Diego State’s availability report changes again ahead of Pac-12 opener (2026-10-02)

• Aldrich Doe (WR) is out for SDSU

  OUT

  WR; undisclosed. San Diego State’s availability report changes again ahead of Pac-12 opener (2026-10-02) San Diego State News, Schedule, and Roster | RotoWire — October 3 player updates (2026-10-03)

• Stone Saunders (QB) is out for SDSU

  OUT

  Backup QB; broken collarbone. San Diego State has a quarterback question entering its Pac-12 opener (2026-10-01) San Diego State’s availability report changes again ahead of Pac-12 opener (2026-10-02)

• Javion Kinnard (RB) is out for SDSU

  OUT

  RB; apparent knee injury. October 3 reporting describes him as out after the earlier doubtful designation. San Diego State vs. Texas State prediction: Can Aztecs overcome depleted roster in Pac-12 opener? (2026-10-03) San Diego State’s availability report changes again ahead of Pac-12 opener (2026-10-02)

• Lucky Sutton (RB) is out for SDSU

  OUT

  Starting RB; ankle injury. San Diego State’s availability report changes again ahead of Pac-12 opener (2026-10-02) San Diego State vs. Texas State prediction: Can Aztecs overcome depleted roster in Pac-12 opener? (2026-10-03)

• Blake Smith (TE) is out for TXST

  OUT

  TE; foot injury. September 30 report specifically rules him out against SDSU. Texas State News, Schedule, and Roster | RotoWire — September 30 availability updates (2026-09-30)

• Cole Snodgrass (TE) is out for TXST

  OUT

  TE; undisclosed injury. September 30 report specifically rules him out against SDSU. Texas State News, Schedule, and Roster | RotoWire — September 30 availability updates (2026-09-30)

SITUATIONAL

• TXST: 60% third-down conversion rate to SDSU's 32.7%

  27.3 PP

  Texas State converts 60% of third downs over 4 games, San Diego State 32.7%. Texas State was at 46.6% last season, so 60% is likely to drift down. San Diego State is right near its 31.4% from last year, which makes their number a steadier read. Texas State's strong run game keeps third downs short, which is the part most likely to carry over.

• TXST: 242.8 team passing yards per game to SDSU's 164.8

  78 YPG

  TXST is at 242.8 team passing yards per game over 4 games; SDSU is at 164.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 2. Last season TXST was at 250.9 over 13 games and SDSU at 157.7 over 13 games.

• TXST: 25 first downs per game to SDSU's 18.3

  6.8 FD

  TXST is at 25 first downs per game over 4 games; SDSU is at 18.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 2. Last season TXST was at 23 over 13 games and SDSU at 17.9 over 13 games.

AFTER GARY

• TXST -10.5 → -9.5

  NOW +1

  Gary's number was -10.5; the same book now shows -9.5.