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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM

Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes

O/U 45.5 · SPREAD Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5

GARY'S PICK
Iowa +14.5
NCAAFvs Ohio State· -118

Iowa
+14.5

-118 · LOST · OSU 31 · IOWA 14

Ohio State

The pick & result

Published pick
Iowa Hawkeyes +14.5 -118
Published odds
-118
Result
Lost
Final score
31-14

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 57 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 27 6:00 AM
Close
Oct 3 3:13 PM
Move
SPREADOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-105)+½
TOTAL44.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)+2
MONEYLINEOhio State Buckeyes -625Ohio State Buckeyes -700−75
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 27 6:00 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-108)44.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Sep 27 9:00 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-105)44.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -700 · Iowa Hawkeyes +525
Sep 27 12:02 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-110)44.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Sep 27 1:02 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-110)44.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Sep 27 4:03 PMOhio State Buckeyes -13.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Sep 27 6:03 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-105)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Sep 27 9:05 PMOhio State Buckeyes -13.5 (-112)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Sep 28 6:00 AMOhio State Buckeyes -13.5 (-110)46.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -600 · Iowa Hawkeyes +450
Sep 28 8:01 AMOhio State Buckeyes -13.5 (-110)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +450
Sep 28 1:46 PMOhio State Buckeyes -13.5 (-112)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -600 · Iowa Hawkeyes +450
Sep 28 2:16 PMOhio State Buckeyes -13.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -600 · Iowa Hawkeyes +450
Sep 28 3:17 PMOhio State Buckeyes -13.5 (-112)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -550 · Iowa Hawkeyes +425
Sep 28 4:17 PMOhio State Buckeyes -13.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -550 · Iowa Hawkeyes +425
Sep 28 5:18 PMOhio State Buckeyes -13.5 (-112)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -600 · Iowa Hawkeyes +450
Sep 28 6:18 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-108)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -600 · Iowa Hawkeyes +450
Sep 28 7:18 PMOhio State Buckeyes -13.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -600 · Iowa Hawkeyes +450
Sep 28 8:18 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-108)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -550 · Iowa Hawkeyes +425
Sep 28 9:18 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-105)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -550 · Iowa Hawkeyes +425
Sep 28 10:18 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-108)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -550 · Iowa Hawkeyes +425
Sep 29 6:00 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-108)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -600 · Iowa Hawkeyes +450
Sep 29 7:30 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-108)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -550 · Iowa Hawkeyes +425
Sep 29 8:30 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-108)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -550 · Iowa Hawkeyes +425
Sep 29 11:03 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-108)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -600 · Iowa Hawkeyes +450
Sep 29 4:05 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-108)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Sep 29 6:08 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-110)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Sep 29 9:09 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-112)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Sep 30 8:30 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-110)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Sep 30 9:31 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Sep 30 12:34 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-112)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Sep 30 1:34 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Sep 30 3:34 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Sep 30 4:34 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-105)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Sep 30 8:05 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +450
Sep 30 8:35 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +450
Oct 1 11:32 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-108)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 1 12:32 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-108)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Oct 1 1:33 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-108)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Oct 1 2:03 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-105)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Oct 1 3:04 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-110)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Oct 2 5:42 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-110)45.5 (-105)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Oct 2 5:52 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-112)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Oct 2 7:54 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-112)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 3 6:30 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-112)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -625 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Oct 3 8:01 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-112)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +475
Oct 3 9:58 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-112)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 3 10:18 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 3 10:48 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-120)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 3 10:58 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-110)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 3 11:39 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-112)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 3 11:59 AMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-112)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 3 12:50 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-112)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 3 1:00 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-112)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 3 1:20 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-112)45.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 3 1:40 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14 (-108)45.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 3 1:51 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-110)46.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 3 2:01 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (+100)46.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
Oct 3 3:03 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-102)46.5 (-108)Ohio State Buckeyes -650 · Iowa Hawkeyes +500
CLOSEOct 3 3:13 PMOhio State Buckeyes -14.5 (-105)46.5 (-110)Ohio State Buckeyes -700 · Iowa Hawkeyes +525

The read

Sunshine over Kinnick, low 60s at kickoff. The No. 5 Buckeyes walk into Iowa City to face a No. 14 Iowa team that is 4-0 and allowing eight points a game.

The ratings already explain this number. SP+ has Ohio State at 28.8 and Iowa at 14.8, a 14-point gap on a neutral field, and FPI lands in the same spot. This game is in Iowa City. To cover 14.5, Ohio State has to play above its own rating on the road against the best defense on the field today.

Iowa's defense earns that label. It allows a 30.0% success rate, gives up the least damage on the plays that do succeed, and yields just 2.167 points per scoring opportunity. Teams get to the 40 against this group and walk away with field goals.

Ohio State's offense is the second problem. Its run game has a 16.8% stuff rate. Bo Jackson ran 19 times for 74 yards at Texas, and Ryan Day spent the week saying the ground game has to get better. Starting right tackle Phillip Daniels is out again, with the right side of the line still reshuffled. Without a dependable run, Ohio State is asking Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith to carry a road game against a disciplined Cover 4 shell.

The one time Sayin faced a defense of this caliber on the road, he went 17 of 32. The Buckeyes led Texas 23-3 entering the fourth quarter and gave up 21 unanswered points.

Iowa's side of the ball fits the number too. Iowa has committed one turnover in four games, and Hank Brown has yet to throw an interception, so Ohio State will not get cheap short fields. The Hawkeyes run for 215.5 yards a game, which shortens the clock and cuts the possessions Ohio State needs to build a big margin. Special teams also lean Iowa, and Braeden Jackson already has a 99-yard kickoff return touchdown this season.

The risk is real. Iowa plays without strong safety Tyler Brown and defensive back Kyler Gerardy against a receiver averaging 154.3 yards a game, and Michigan hit six passing gains of at least 20 yards on this secondary. Iowa's offense also struggles to play from behind, with a 24.1% success rate on passing downs. If Ohio State opens a two-score lead early, the Hawkeyes are not built to chase.

I'll still take a team that protects the ball, controls the clock and finishes defensive stands, getting the hook over two touchdowns at home. Ohio State has to be dominant for four full quarters on the road, and it has not shown that yet this season.

Injuries noted

Ohio State Buckeyes: Anthony Rogers (out) — Running back, listed as Anthony “Turbo” Rogers, ruled out on Friday's Iowa availability report; condition unspecified.; Amari Valerio-Hudson (out) — Reserve wide receiver listed out against Iowa; condition unspecified.; Braxton Rembert (out) — Linebacker downgraded to out against Iowa; condition unspecified.; Jaxon Powell (out) — Reserve offensive lineman listed out against Iowa; condition unspecified.; Phillip Daniels (out) — Starting right tackle ruled out Friday; sidelined since an injury against Texas.; Vasean Washington (out) — Reserve offensive lineman listed out against Iowa; condition unspecified.; Jay Timmons (questionable) — Starting nickelback remained questionable Friday after leaving the Illinois game with an apparent hamstring injury.

Iowa Hawkeyes: Tyler Brown (out) — Starting strong safety ruled out against Ohio State; reporting describes a lingering soft-tissue injury.; Kyler Gerardy (out) — Defensive back listed out against Ohio State; condition unspecified.; Darion Jones (questionable) — Freshman defensive back listed questionable against Ohio State; condition unspecified.; Derek Weisskopf (questionable) — Linebacker listed questionable on the initial game-specific report, as reported October 2; a later status was not verified.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Julian Sayin is OSU's projected starter

    10.49 Y/A

    Julian Sayin is OSU's projected starting quarterback. The October 2 game preview discusses Sayin and explicitly lists him among projected starters against Iowa. 2026 line: 1206 passing yards, 72.2% completions, 10.49 yards per attempt, 10-1 TD-INT over 4 games.

  • Hank Brown is IOWA's confirmed starter

    7.13 Y/A

    Hank Brown is IOWA's confirmed starting quarterback. Iowa's September 28 Ohio State game notes explicitly identify Brown as the officially named starting quarterback. 2026 line: 684 passing yards, 67.7% completions, 7.13 yards per attempt, 4-0 TD-INT over 4 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • OSU: 45 points per game to IOWA's 32.8

    12.3 PPG

    Ohio State is scoring 45 points a game through four games, up from 33.4 last season, while Iowa is at 32.8 after 29.3 last season. Both offenses are running hot, and Ohio State's jump is the larger one, which makes it the bigger candidate to cool off. Iowa wants a slow, run-heavy game, and that clashes with an Ohio State offense putting up points this fast. Whoever controls the pace in Iowa City decides whether this is a shootout or a grind.

  • OSU @ IOWA carries a 45.5 market total

    45.5

    Ohio State at Iowa sits at 45.5, 6.5 below the 52 median, which points to a low-possession game where every drive counts. No team stats are on the sheet, so the market is the only voice here. What cracks a total like this is one side scoring fast: a couple of quick touchdowns forces the other to open up, and a game priced for patience turns into a chase.

TURNOVERS

  • IOWA: 0.25 turnovers committed per game to OSU's 1

    0.75 TO

    OSU is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 4 games; IOWA is at 0.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 2. Last season OSU was at 0.79 over 14 games and IOWA at 1 over 13 games.

MISMATCH

  • OSU: 365.3 pass yards a game to IOWA's 209.5

    365.3 VS 209.5

    Ohio State is throwing for 365.3 a game over 4 games, up from 268.2 last season, and Iowa is at 209.5, which is a real gain over last season's 143.2. Iowa's improved passing still trails badly, so they will try to win with the run and short possessions at home. Ohio State's pace may cool, but the gap through the air is wide enough to shape how Iowa has to play.

REPLACEMENT

  • Jaxon Powell (OL) is out for OSU

    OUT

    Reserve offensive lineman listed out against Iowa; condition unspecified. Ohio State Injury Report: Phillip Daniels Out, Jay Timmons Questionable vs. Iowa; Zion Grady and Bennett Christian Cleared to Play (2026-10-02)

  • Anthony Rogers (RB) is out for OSU

    OUT

    Running back, listed as Anthony “Turbo” Rogers, ruled out on Friday's Iowa availability report; condition unspecified. Ohio State Injury Report: Phillip Daniels Out, Jay Timmons Questionable vs. Iowa; Zion Grady and Bennett Christian Cleared to Play (2026-10-02)

  • Amari Valerio-Hudson (WR) is out for OSU

    OUT

    Reserve wide receiver listed out against Iowa; condition unspecified. Ohio State Injury Report: Phillip Daniels Out, Jay Timmons Questionable vs. Iowa; Zion Grady and Bennett Christian Cleared to Play (2026-10-02)

  • Braxton Rembert (LB) is out for OSU

    OUT

    Linebacker downgraded to out against Iowa; condition unspecified. Ohio State Injury Report: Phillip Daniels Out, Jay Timmons Questionable vs. Iowa; Zion Grady and Bennett Christian Cleared to Play (2026-10-02)

  • Phillip Daniels (OL) is out for OSU

    OUT

    Starting right tackle ruled out Friday; sidelined since an injury against Texas. Ohio State Injury Report: Phillip Daniels Out, Jay Timmons Questionable vs. Iowa; Zion Grady and Bennett Christian Cleared to Play (2026-10-02)

  • Vasean Washington (OL) is out for OSU

    OUT

    Reserve offensive lineman listed out against Iowa; condition unspecified. Ohio State Injury Report: Phillip Daniels Out, Jay Timmons Questionable vs. Iowa; Zion Grady and Bennett Christian Cleared to Play (2026-10-02)

  • Tyler Brown (DB) is out for IOWA

    OUT

    Starting strong safety ruled out against Ohio State; reporting describes a lingering soft-tissue injury. Iowa strong safety Tyler Brown goes from “iffy” to out for Ohio State game (2026-10-02)

  • Kyler Gerardy (DB) is out for IOWA

    OUT

    Defensive back listed out against Ohio State; condition unspecified. Iowa strong safety Tyler Brown goes from “iffy” to out for Ohio State game (2026-10-02)

SITUATIONAL

  • OSU: 365.3 team passing yards per game to IOWA's 209.5

    155.8 YPG

    Ohio State is throwing for 365.3 a game through 4 games, up from 268.2 last season, and Iowa is at 209.5, well above its 143.2. Both numbers have climbed, but Iowa's identity last season was a low-volume passing team, so its jump is the one to doubt. Expect Ohio State to dictate the game through the air on the road.

  • No. 5 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa

    #5 VS #14

    Ohio State sits at 3-1 with 1465 points and climbed two spots, so voters still see a playoff-level team despite the loss. Iowa is 4-0 and rose three spots, yet 856 points says voters respect the record more than the roster. That split usually means the poll is pricing Ohio State's name as much as its four games. A road favorite with a loss already on the books has more to lose here, and an unbeaten home side the voters keep underrating is the kind of spot where the number can sit too high.

  • OSU: 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate to IOWA's 20%

    46.7 PP

    OSU is at 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate over 4 games; IOWA is at 20% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 2. Last season OSU was at 70.6% over 14 games and IOWA at 66.7% over 13 games.

TEAM RECORD

  • Big Ten game: OSU 1-0, IOWA 1-0 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the Big Ten. OSU is 1-0 against it, IOWA is 1-0. 2026 standings through 2026-10-03.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 3, 2026 at 8:09 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, betmgm, fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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