Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack
O/U 55.5 · SPREAD Louisville Cardinals -3.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Louisville Cardinals -3.5 +100
- Published odds
- +100
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 28-31
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 57 moves| Market | Opened Sep 27 4:03 PM | Close Oct 3 3:23 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Louisville Cardinals -6 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -5.5 (-112) | −½ |
| TOTAL | 60.5 (-108) | 56.5 (-108) | −4 |
| MONEYLINE | Louisville Cardinals -225 | Louisville Cardinals -210 | +15 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 27 4:03 PM | Louisville Cardinals -6 (-108) | 60.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -225 · NC State Wolfpack +185 |
| Sep 27 6:03 PM | Louisville Cardinals -6 (-110) | 60.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -225 · NC State Wolfpack +185 |
| Sep 27 10:05 PM | Louisville Cardinals -6 (-108) | 60.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -225 · NC State Wolfpack +185 |
| Sep 27 11:05 PM | Louisville Cardinals -5.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -225 · NC State Wolfpack +185 |
| Sep 28 8:01 AM | Louisville Cardinals -5.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -225 · NC State Wolfpack +185 |
| Sep 28 1:46 PM | Louisville Cardinals -5.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-112) | Louisville Cardinals -220 · NC State Wolfpack +180 |
| Sep 29 12:03 PM | Louisville Cardinals -4.5 (-105) | 58.5 (-115) | Louisville Cardinals -190 · NC State Wolfpack +160 |
| Sep 29 1:04 PM | Louisville Cardinals -4 (-110) | 58.5 (-112) | Louisville Cardinals -190 · NC State Wolfpack +155 |
| Sep 29 2:04 PM | Louisville Cardinals -4 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -190 · NC State Wolfpack +155 |
| Sep 29 3:04 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -185 · NC State Wolfpack +150 |
| Sep 29 6:08 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -190 · NC State Wolfpack +155 |
| Sep 29 7:09 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -185 · NC State Wolfpack +150 |
| Sep 30 10:31 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -185 · NC State Wolfpack +150 |
| Sep 30 1:34 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -185 · NC State Wolfpack +150 |
| Sep 30 3:34 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -175 · NC State Wolfpack +145 |
| Sep 30 5:35 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -175 · NC State Wolfpack +145 |
| Oct 1 6:00 AM | Louisville Cardinals -4 (-110) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -175 · NC State Wolfpack +145 |
| Oct 1 9:31 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -175 · NC State Wolfpack +145 |
| Oct 1 12:02 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-118) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -185 · NC State Wolfpack +150 |
| Oct 1 3:34 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-118) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -185 · NC State Wolfpack +150 |
| Oct 1 4:04 PM | Louisville Cardinals -4 (-110) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -185 · NC State Wolfpack +150 |
| Oct 1 4:34 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -185 · NC State Wolfpack +150 |
| Oct 1 8:36 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -185 · NC State Wolfpack +150 |
| Oct 1 9:37 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -175 · NC State Wolfpack +150 |
| Oct 1 10:37 PM | Louisville Cardinals -4 (-110) | 58.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -185 · NC State Wolfpack +150 |
| Oct 2 6:00 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -175 · NC State Wolfpack +150 |
| Oct 2 7:30 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -175 · NC State Wolfpack +150 |
| Oct 2 5:21 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-115) | 58.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -165 · NC State Wolfpack +135 |
| Oct 2 5:42 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-115) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -160 · NC State Wolfpack +135 |
| Oct 2 5:52 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-108) | 57.5 (-115) | Louisville Cardinals -165 · NC State Wolfpack +135 |
| Oct 2 7:03 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-115) | 57.5 (-115) | Louisville Cardinals -165 · NC State Wolfpack +138 |
| Oct 2 10:04 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-115) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -165 · NC State Wolfpack +138 |
| Oct 2 11:04 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-115) | 57.5 (-112) | Louisville Cardinals -165 · NC State Wolfpack +138 |
| Oct 2 11:34 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-115) | 57.5 (-112) | Louisville Cardinals -160 · NC State Wolfpack +135 |
| Oct 3 5:00 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-115) | 57.5 (-112) | Louisville Cardinals -165 · NC State Wolfpack +138 |
| Oct 3 8:01 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-112) | 57.5 (-112) | Louisville Cardinals -160 · NC State Wolfpack +135 |
| Oct 3 9:28 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-115) | 57.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -155 · NC State Wolfpack +130 |
| Oct 3 9:38 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-112) | 57.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -160 · NC State Wolfpack +130 |
| Oct 3 9:48 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-112) | 57.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -155 · NC State Wolfpack +130 |
| Oct 3 10:18 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-112) | 57.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -160 · NC State Wolfpack +130 |
| Oct 3 10:38 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-112) | 57.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -155 · NC State Wolfpack +130 |
| Oct 3 10:48 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-115) | 57.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -160 · NC State Wolfpack +135 |
| Oct 3 10:58 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-115) | 57.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -165 · NC State Wolfpack +138 |
| Oct 3 11:29 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-115) | 56.5 (-120) | Louisville Cardinals -165 · NC State Wolfpack +138 |
| Oct 3 11:39 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-115) | 57.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -165 · NC State Wolfpack +138 |
| Oct 3 11:49 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-112) | 57.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -160 · NC State Wolfpack +135 |
| Oct 3 11:59 AM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-112) | 56.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -160 · NC State Wolfpack +135 |
| Oct 3 1:00 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-112) | 56.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -160 · NC State Wolfpack +135 |
| Oct 3 1:40 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-118) | 56.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -165 · NC State Wolfpack +138 |
| Oct 3 1:51 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-118) | 56.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -165 · NC State Wolfpack +140 |
| Oct 3 2:01 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-120) | 56.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -165 · NC State Wolfpack +138 |
| Oct 3 2:11 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-102) | 56.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -165 · NC State Wolfpack +138 |
| Oct 3 2:21 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-105) | 57.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -175 · NC State Wolfpack +140 |
| Oct 3 2:32 PM | Louisville Cardinals -4.5 (-108) | 57.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -190 · NC State Wolfpack +160 |
| Oct 3 2:43 PM | Louisville Cardinals -5 (-110) | 57.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -210 · NC State Wolfpack +175 |
| Oct 3 2:53 PM | Louisville Cardinals -5.5 (-108) | 56.5 (-112) | Louisville Cardinals -220 · NC State Wolfpack +180 |
| Oct 3 3:03 PM | Louisville Cardinals -5.5 (-108) | 56.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -220 · NC State Wolfpack +180 |
| CLOSEOct 3 3:23 PM | Louisville Cardinals -5.5 (-112) | 56.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -210 · NC State Wolfpack +175 |
The read
Carter-Finley Stadium at 3:30, mostly cloudy skies over Raleigh with a 50% rain chance in the forecast. Two 2-2 ACC teams that expected more from September, and one of them steadies itself today.
I'm laying the number with Louisville because it is the better football team, and I'm getting it at even money. Louisville rates 9.9 on SP+ to NC State's 3.4, and the results line up with that. Louisville beat SMU (SP+ #26) and lost by 3 to Ole Miss (SP+ #32). NC State is 0-2 against top-50 opponents, including an 8-34 loss at Virginia. This line opened at 6.5 and sits at 3.5 with Louisville at +100.
The key matchup is Louisville's passing game against an NC State defense that hasn't reached the quarterback. Kienholz has thrown for 10.46 yards per attempt with 7 touchdowns and 1 interception. Louisville has seven touchdowns of 50 yards or more, and its offensive explosiveness mark of 1.353 is the highest in this matchup, against NC State's 1.209. NC State has 4 sacks in four games and has allowed at least 30 points in every FBS game. The Wolfpack line up today without nickel Isaiah Crowell, inside linebacker AJ Richardson and nose guard Carmelo McKenzie. Across from them are Tre Richardson, Lawayne McCoy and tight end Jaleel Skinner, who has 248 yards on 12 catches.
Ball security points the same way. Louisville has committed 1 turnover in four games and forced 7. NC State has given it away 6 times.
NC State's best path is the run game, and it's a real one: 219 rushing yards per game against a Louisville front that stuffs just 12.1% of runs. The trouble is everything missing around it. Starting center Spike Sowells Jr. sits for a third straight game, with Teague Andersen moved over from right tackle. Tight ends Vander Ploog and Ian Flynt are out, in a week Dave Doeren spent talking about protecting against Louisville's pressure. Kicker Nick Konieczynski is doubtful in a game priced around a field goal.
Louisville carries its own risk. Bryten Close, Ellis McAdoo and Sam Secrest are all out on the offensive line, punter Jacob Baker is out, and this is the program's first true road game. Both Louisville losses came by 3, the one margin this ticket can't survive. At +100 I'll accept that. The gap between these teams lives in big plays, and Louisville is the team that makes them.
Injuries noted
Louisville Cardinals: Antonio Watts (out) — DB; condition unspecified.; Travis Egan (out) — TE; condition unspecified.; Jacob Baker (out) — P; condition unspecified.; Bryten Close (out) — OT; condition unspecified.; Ellis McAdoo (out) — OL; condition unspecified.; Sam Secrest (out) — OL; condition unspecified.; Montavin Quisenberry (out) — WR; condition unspecified.; Hamilton Atkins (out) — TE; condition unspecified.; Sam Dawson (out) — DL; condition unspecified.; Lincoln Kienholz (questionable) — QB; injury unspecified.; Koen Entringer (questionable) — DB; condition unspecified.; Lawayne McCoy (questionable) — WR; condition unspecified.; Keyjuan Brown (probable) — RB; condition unspecified.; AJ Green (probable) — DL; condition unspecified.; Anwar O'Neal (probable) — OL; condition unspecified.; Elizjah Lewis (probable) — WR; condition unspecified.; Daylen Russell (probable) — DL; condition unspecified.
NC State Wolfpack: Vander Ploog (out) — TE; condition unspecified.; Isaiah Crowell (out) — Nickel; condition unspecified.; AJ Richardson (out) — ILB; condition unspecified.; Rylan Vann (out) — OL; condition unspecified.; Spike Sowells Jr. (out) — Starting center; third consecutive absence.; Ian Flynt (out) — TE; condition unspecified.; Carmelo McKenzie (out) — NG; condition unspecified.; Tyreek Copper (doubtful) — WR; condition unspecified.; Nick Konieczynski (doubtful) — K; condition unspecified.; Noah Moss (questionable) — RB; condition unspecified.; Jimarion McCrimon (questionable) — Starting left tackle; injury unspecified.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
CJ Bailey is NCSU's confirmed starter
8.00 Y/ACJ Bailey is NCSU's confirmed starting quarterback. October 1 game preview explicitly identifies Bailey as the starting quarterback and Will Wilson as his backup. 2026 line: 880 passing yards, 67.3% completions, 8.00 yards per attempt, 6-3 TD-INT over 4 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
LOU @ NCSU carries a 57.5 market total
57.5The current fanduel total is 57.5, 5.5 points above the 52 median across 32 games with posted totals on this slate.
MISMATCH
LOU: 0.25 turnovers a game to NCSU's 1.5
0.25 VS 1.5Louisville has given the ball away once in four games, 0.25 a game, while NC State is at 1.5. Last season Louisville was at 1.31 and NC State at 1, so both teams are running well off their usual rate and some of that should come back toward normal. Turnovers swing a lot over four games. The gap gives Louisville an edge on the road, but a game priced heavily on ball security is pricing the part most likely to move.
REPLACEMENT
Rylan Vann (OL) is out for NCSU
OUTOL; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
AJ Richardson (LB) is out for NCSU
OUTILB; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
Isaiah Crowell (CB) is out for NCSU
OUTNickel; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
Vander Ploog (TE) is out for NCSU
OUTTE; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
Sam Dawson (DL) is out for LOU
OUTDL; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
Hamilton Atkins (TE) is out for LOU
OUTTE; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
Montavin Quisenberry (WR) is out for LOU
OUTWR; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
Sam Secrest (OL) is out for LOU
OUTOL; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
Ellis McAdoo (OL) is out for LOU
OUTOL; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
Bryten Close (OT) is out for LOU
OUTOT; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
Jacob Baker (P) is out for LOU
OUTP; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
Travis Egan (TE) is out for LOU
OUTTE; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
Spike Sowells Jr. (OL) is out for NCSU
OUTStarting center; third consecutive absence. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02) NC State Offensive Line Takes Another Hit Ahead of Louisville Matchup (2026-10-02)
Ian Flynt (TE) is out for NCSU
OUTTE; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
Antonio Watts (DB) is out for LOU
OUTDB; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
Carmelo McKenzie (OL) is out for NCSU
OUTNG; condition unspecified. ACC Injury Report: Kienholz Questionable, NC State’s Line Concerns Lead Thursday Update (2026-10-02)
SITUATIONAL
NCSU: 57.1% fourth-down conversion rate to LOU's 0%
57.1 PPLouisville is 0% on fourth down through four games after converting 64.3% last season, and NC State is at 57.1% after 50%. That 0% likely comes from only a few tries, so it is noise, and Louisville should be close to its usual rate. Do not let that number scare you off Louisville in short-yardage spots in Raleigh.
NCSU: 48 penalty yards per game to LOU's 93
45 YDSLouisville is giving away 93 penalty yards a game through four games, up from 63.2 last season, while NC State is at 48, close to its 53.8 a year ago. NC State's number looks like its normal self, and Louisville's has spiked over a short stretch. Expect some regression from Louisville, but a road crowd at NC State is a spot where flags can keep piling up. Penalties extend drives, so this gap matters most for totals and late covers.
LOU: 295.8 team passing yards per game to NCSU's 229.5
66.3 YPGLOU is at 295.8 team passing yards per game over 4 games; NCSU is at 229.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 2. Last season LOU was at 220.6 over 13 games and NCSU at 245.7 over 13 games.
TEAM RECORD
ACC game: LOU 1-1, NCSU 0-1 in conference
CONFERENCEThese two share the ACC. LOU is 1-1 against it, NCSU is 0-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-03.
AFTER GARY
LOU -3.5 → -5.5
GARY +2Gary's number was -3.5; the same book now shows -5.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 3, 2026 at 8:09 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKJALEEL SKINNERANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5
I'm taking Jaleel Skinner to score at +220. He's the Louisville pass catcher NC State's injury report sets up best.
NC State is missing nickel Isaiah Crowell and inside linebacker AJ Richardson today. Those are the two spots that cover a tight end down the seam and in the red zone. Skinner has 12 catches for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns through four games. That's more than 20 yards a catch from a tight end, and a touchdown on one of every four receptions. He isn't a volume guy. When Kienholz looks his way it's usually downfield or near the goal line, and that's where backup linebackers and a backup nickel get exposed.
The price is what makes this work. +220 implies about 31%. Louisville has scored roughly four offensive touchdowns a game, and Skinner has 3 of them along with Lawayne McCoy, who is priced at +133 on the same share of the scoring. NC State has allowed at least 30 points in every FBS game it has played. If Louisville gets to four touchdowns against a defense this thin, Skinner's chance of getting one is comfortably above what the number asks for.
The risks are real. Louisville is down three offensive linemen, so Skinner could be kept in to block more than usual. A 50% rain chance could also take some of the downfield passing out of the game. Kienholz also likes to run it in himself near the goal line. At +220 I'll take those risks for a tight end with this kind of touchdown rate against a defense missing its coverage players in the middle of the field.
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