Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers

Injuries noted

Florida Gators: Vernell Brown III (doubtful) — Leading receiver with a knee injury; October 2 reporting explicitly cites the Friday-night SEC report downgrading him to doubtful for Missouri.; Bailey Stockton (questionable) — Receiver with a back injury. October 2 reporting says the SEC report lists him questionable, while reporting attributed to On3's Pete Nakos says he should play and is leaning probable. A subsequent dated official upgrade was not verified.; Kelvin Jimenez (out) — Running back listed out with a knee injury in the October 1 official preview. A later dated status could not be verified from a successfully opened page.; Eric Singleton Jr. (probable) — Receiver listed probable with an ankle injury in the October 1 official preview. This establishes that report's designation only; a later dated designation was not verified.

Missouri Tigers: Ahmad Hardy (out) — Running back listed out with a leg injury in the October 1 game-specific official preview.; Malae Fonoti (out) — Running back listed out; condition undisclosed in the October 1 official preview.; Josh Atkins (out) — Offensive lineman listed out; condition undisclosed in the October 1 official preview.; Gavin Hoffman (out) — Tight end listed out; condition undisclosed in the October 1 official preview.; JaDon Blair (out) — Defensive back listed out; condition undisclosed in the October 1 official preview.; Darris Smith (out) — Starting edge rusher ruled unavailable in October 2 reporting attributed to ESPN's Pete Thamel. The October 1 official preview identified a lower-body injury.; Langden Kitchen (out) — Ruled out against Florida in October 2 reporting attributed to ESPN's Pete Thamel. The October 1 official preview identified a lower-body injury.; Bobby Washington Jr. (questionable) — Linebacker listed questionable with an undisclosed condition on October 1. A later dated status could not be verified from a successfully opened page.

QUARTERBACK

• Aaron Philo is FLA's projected starter

  10.54 Y/A

  Aaron Philo is FLA's projected starting quarterback. Florida's October 1 official game preview discusses Philo as its quarterback entering Missouri. It does not explicitly announce the October 3 starter; this designation is based on the preview's role discussion, not passing totals. 2026 line: 917 passing yards, 72.4% completions, 10.54 yards per attempt, 7-2 TD-INT over 4 games.

• Austin Simmons is MIZ's confirmed starter

  8.77 Y/A

  Austin Simmons is MIZ's confirmed starting quarterback. The October 2 preview explicitly identifies Simmons as Missouri's starting quarterback for the October 3 Florida matchup. 2026 line: 930 passing yards, 65.1% completions, 8.77 yards per attempt, 11-0 TD-INT over 4 games.

TRENCHES

• FLA: 256.3 rushing yards per game to MIZ's 160

  96.3 YPG

  Florida is running for 256.3 a game through 4 games, nearly double its 136.8 last season, so that pace is likely to cool. Missouri has gone the other way, down to 160 from 228.3 last season. The two run games have swapped roles from last season, and four games is a short window to trust that flip fully.

PACE & SCRIPT

• FLA: 53.5 points per game to MIZ's 35.8

  17.8 PPG

  Florida is scoring 53.5 a game through 4 games after averaging 21.6 last season, a jump that is too big to hold at this level. Missouri at 35.8 is closer to its 30.2 from last season. A bettor should be wary of pricing Florida's offense off four games when last season's number points the other way.

• FLA @ MIZ carries a 57.5 market total

  57.5

  Florida at Missouri is priced at 57.5, 5.5 above the 52 median, which says the market expects both offenses to move the ball. There are no team stats on the sheet to back the number. For it to crack, the game needs to shorten: long, clock-eating drives or red-zone stops that turn touchdowns into field goals.

MISMATCH

• FLA: 256.3 rush yards a game to MIZ's 160

  256.3 VS 160

  Florida is running for 256.3 a game over 4 games, way up from 136.8 last season, while Missouri has fallen to 160 from 228.3. Both numbers are big swings from last year, so Florida likely cools and Missouri likely climbs back some. On the road at Missouri, Florida's ground game decides whether they can control the clock against a team with a strong running history.

REPLACEMENT

• Kelvin Jimenez (RB) is out for FLA

  OUT

  Running back listed out with a knee injury in the October 1 official preview. A later dated status could not be verified from a successfully opened page. The Opening Kickoff: No. 8 Gators at No. 25 Missouri — Buzz Builds, Focus Required (2026-10-01)

• Ahmad Hardy (RB) is out for MIZ

  OUT

  Running back listed out with a leg injury in the October 1 game-specific official preview. The Opening Kickoff: No. 8 Gators at No. 25 Missouri — Buzz Builds, Focus Required (2026-10-01)

• Malae Fonoti (RB) is out for MIZ

  OUT

  Running back listed out; condition undisclosed in the October 1 official preview. The Opening Kickoff: No. 8 Gators at No. 25 Missouri — Buzz Builds, Focus Required (2026-10-01)

• Josh Atkins (OL) is out for MIZ

  OUT

  Offensive lineman listed out; condition undisclosed in the October 1 official preview. The Opening Kickoff: No. 8 Gators at No. 25 Missouri — Buzz Builds, Focus Required (2026-10-01)

• Gavin Hoffman (TE) is out for MIZ

  OUT

  Tight end listed out; condition undisclosed in the October 1 official preview. The Opening Kickoff: No. 8 Gators at No. 25 Missouri — Buzz Builds, Focus Required (2026-10-01)

• JaDon Blair (S) is out for MIZ

  OUT

  Defensive back listed out; condition undisclosed in the October 1 official preview. The Opening Kickoff: No. 8 Gators at No. 25 Missouri — Buzz Builds, Focus Required (2026-10-01)

• Darris Smith (EDGE) is out for MIZ

  OUT

  Starting edge rusher ruled unavailable in October 2 reporting attributed to ESPN's Pete Thamel. The October 1 official preview identified a lower-body injury. Darris Smith Injury: Out vs. Gators (2026-10-02) The Opening Kickoff: No. 8 Gators at No. 25 Missouri — Buzz Builds, Focus Required (2026-10-01)

• Langden Kitchen (EDGE) is out for MIZ

  OUT

  Ruled out against Florida in October 2 reporting attributed to ESPN's Pete Thamel. The October 1 official preview identified a lower-body injury. Langden Kitchen Injury: Won't play Saturday (2026-10-02) The Opening Kickoff: No. 8 Gators at No. 25 Missouri — Buzz Builds, Focus Required (2026-10-01)

SITUATIONAL

• No. 8 Florida at No. 25 Missouri

  #8 VS #25

  Florida is No. 8 in the AP poll at 4-0 (1272 points, trend +13). Missouri is No. 25 in the AP poll at 3-1 (118 points, trend -6).

TEAM RECORD

• SEC game: FLA 2-0, MIZ 0-1 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  These two share the SEC. FLA is 2-0 against it, MIZ is 0-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-03.