Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers
O/U 54.5 · SPREAD Tennessee Volunteers -6.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Auburn Tigers +6.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 14-24
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 39 moves| Market | Opened Sep 27 5:03 PM | Close Oct 3 3:23 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Tennessee Volunteers -7.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -5.5 (-110) | −2 |
| TOTAL | 54.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-105) | Holds |
| MONEYLINE | Tennessee Volunteers -295 | Tennessee Volunteers -235 | +60 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 27 5:03 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240 |
| Sep 27 6:03 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-118) | Tennessee Volunteers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240 |
| Sep 27 8:05 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240 |
| Sep 27 9:05 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-110) | 54.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220 |
| Sep 27 10:05 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220 |
| Sep 27 11:05 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-105) | 54.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220 |
| Sep 28 6:00 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-105) | 54.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220 |
| Sep 28 1:46 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230 |
| Sep 28 2:16 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-112) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -275 · Auburn Tigers +230 |
| Sep 28 5:18 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-112) | 53.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230 |
| Sep 28 7:18 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -295 · Auburn Tigers +240 |
| Sep 29 6:00 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-112) | 53.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -275 · Auburn Tigers +225 |
| Sep 29 6:30 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -275 · Auburn Tigers +225 |
| Sep 29 8:30 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-115) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230 |
| Sep 29 10:01 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-115) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230 |
| Sep 29 12:03 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230 |
| Sep 29 1:04 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230 |
| Sep 30 11:32 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230 |
| Sep 30 1:34 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230 |
| Sep 30 7:35 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230 |
| Sep 30 8:35 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-112) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230 |
| Sep 30 10:05 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230 |
| Oct 1 1:33 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -285 · Auburn Tigers +230 |
| Oct 2 5:21 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 (-115) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220 |
| Oct 2 5:32 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-105) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220 |
| Oct 2 6:12 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -7 (-108) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220 |
| Oct 2 8:04 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 (-115) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -275 · Auburn Tigers +220 |
| Oct 2 8:34 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 (-115) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -250 · Auburn Tigers +210 |
| Oct 3 5:00 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -250 · Auburn Tigers +210 |
| Oct 3 10:18 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -250 · Auburn Tigers +210 |
| Oct 3 10:48 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -250 · Auburn Tigers +210 |
| Oct 3 12:09 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 (-112) | 53.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -250 · Auburn Tigers +210 |
| Oct 3 12:19 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 (-108) | 53.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -250 · Auburn Tigers +200 |
| Oct 3 12:29 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 (-108) | 53.5 (-118) | Tennessee Volunteers -250 · Auburn Tigers +200 |
| Oct 3 1:00 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 (-108) | 53.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -250 · Auburn Tigers +200 |
| Oct 3 1:10 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -235 · Auburn Tigers +200 |
| Oct 3 2:53 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -6 (-112) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -235 · Auburn Tigers +190 |
| Oct 3 3:03 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -6 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -235 · Auburn Tigers +190 |
| Oct 3 3:13 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -6 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -235 · Auburn Tigers +190 |
| CLOSEOct 3 3:23 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -5.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -235 · Auburn Tigers +190 |
The read
Champions Weekend at Neyland: the Vols in their Neyland Legacy uniforms, thunderstorms in the forecast, and Alex Golesh back in Knoxville, where Golesh used to be Tennessee's offensive coordinator. Auburn now plays its first true road game of the year there.
The ratings make Tennessee about six points better on a neutral field, 17.7 to 11.4 in SP+. A 6.5 spread at home therefore asks the Vols to win the matchups too, and I have doubts about their offense. The only time it faced a real defense, it averaged 2.9 yards per play and 1.6 yards per carry in a 17-20 home loss to Texas. Tennessee lives on standard downs, with a 51.7% success rate, and drops to 30.0% once it falls behind the chains. Starting left guard Wendell Moe Jr. is now out for the season, and Tennessee had not named a replacement as of October 1. Auburn's front has allowed fewer line yards than Tennessee's and stuffs 18.5% of runs. Xavier Atkins and Elijah Melendez have combined for 13 tackles for loss. If Auburn can put true freshman Faizon Brandon in long passing downs, a seven-point margin gets hard to build.
On the other side, Byrum Brown's offense has a 37.8% success rate on passing downs, better than Tennessee's. Keshaun Singleton, Chas Nimrod and Jeremiah Koger face a secondary that has lost safeties Edrees Farooq and Dylan Lewis and cornerback Jadais Richard for the season. Auburn has played three SP+ top 50 opponents and none of those games was decided by more than six points, including 39 points against Florida, ranked 12th.
The risks are real. Brown has thrown 5 interceptions, and Tennessee's front has 17 sacks. Auburn has been outscored after halftime in three of four games. This number also moved off 7, so a seven-point Tennessee win beats this ticket. I still trust the matchup more than the price. A 60% chance of thunderstorms and a Tennessee ground game facing a sturdy front both point toward fewer possessions, and fewer possessions keep a capable underdog inside the number.
Injuries noted
Auburn Tigers: Tai Buster (out) — Offensive lineman; listed out for the Tennessee game in Friday-update reporting. Condition undisclosed.; Hunter Herring (out) — Tight end; listed out for the Tennessee game in Friday-update reporting. Condition undisclosed.
Tennessee Volunteers: Ethan Davis (out for season) — Starting tight end; knee injury.; Joakim Dodson (out for season) — Wide receiver and kick returner; leg injury.; Jaedon Harmon (out for season) — Linebacker; knee injury.; Edrees Farooq (out for season) — Starting safety; knee injury.; Dylan Lewis (out for season) — Safety; foot injury.; Wendell Moe Jr. (out for season) — Starting left guard; lower-leg injury.; Jadais Richard (out for season) — Cornerback; upper-body injury.; Kedric Golston II (out) — Defensive lineman; condition undisclosed.; Javin Gordon (doubtful) — Running back; leg injury.; Shamurad Umarov (questionable) — Starting guard; condition undisclosed.; Nathan Robinson (probable) — Defensive lineman; condition undisclosed.; Qua Moss (questionable) — Defensive back and punt returner; added to Friday's report. Condition undisclosed in the retrieved report.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Byrum Brown is AUB's projected starter
7.14 Y/AByrum Brown is AUB's projected starting quarterback. Tennessee's official Oct. 2 game preview discusses Brown as Auburn's dual-threat quarterback for Saturday's matchup. The retrieved dated preview does not explicitly announce the starting lineup. 2026 line: 893 passing yards, 64.8% completions, 7.14 yards per attempt, 6-5 TD-INT over 4 games.
Faizon Brandon is TENN's confirmed starter
7.49 Y/AFaizon Brandon is TENN's confirmed starting quarterback. Oct. 2 reporting says Brandon will start against Auburn on Oct. 3. Josh Heupel said Thursday evening that he was good to go after the previous game's throwing-shoulder injury. 2026 line: 697 passing yards, 62.4% completions, 7.49 yards per attempt, 7-0 TD-INT over 4 games.
TRENCHES
TENN: 241.5 rushing yards per game to AUB's 178.5
63 YPGTennessee is running for 241.5 yards a game, up from 173.5 last season, while Auburn is at 178.5, almost the same as last year's 176.8. Both teams are strong running teams, and Auburn's number holds up. Tennessee's jump over four games likely includes some easier opponents, so expect a physical, run-heavy game at home where neither side gives up much ground.
PACE & SCRIPT
TENN: 40 points per game to AUB's 30
10 PPGTennessee scores 40 a game through four games, nearly identical to its 39.8 last season, so this offense is who it is. Auburn is up to 30 from 26.8 last season, but four games could include soft opponents. Tennessee's number has a full season behind it and should hold. At home, Tennessee likely sets the pace, and Auburn needs its improved scoring to be real to keep up.
TURNOVERS
TENN: 0.75 turnovers committed per game to AUB's 1.5
0.75 TOTennessee is turning it over 0.75 times a game, better than its 1.23 last season. Auburn has gone the other way, from 0.67 to 1.5 over four games. Turnovers bounce around in short samples, so both numbers will likely move toward last season. For now, Auburn's giveaways are a real risk on the road against a high-scoring Tennessee offense.
MISMATCH
TENN: 241.5 rush yards a game to AUB's 178.5
241.5 VS 178.5Tennessee is running for 241.5 yards a game through four, Auburn 178.5. Auburn sits right at last season's 176.8, while Tennessee is well above its 173.5, so Tennessee's jump is the number more likely to come down. Both teams can run, and Tennessee's ground game at home is the edge. Expect a game with a running clock, which tends to keep the scoreboard tighter than the yardage.
COVERAGE
TENN: 163.5 passing yards allowed per game to AUB's 238.8
75.3 YPGAUB is at 238.8 passing yards allowed per game over 4 games; TENN is at 163.5 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 2.
REPLACEMENT
Jaedon Harmon (LB) is out for the season for TENN
OUT FOR SEASONLinebacker; knee injury. Nuuz.Net republication of Adam Sparks, Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football DB Qua Moss questionable vs Auburn, per SEC injury report (2026-10-02)
Edrees Farooq (DB) is out for the season for TENN
OUT FOR SEASONStarting safety; knee injury. Nuuz.Net republication of Adam Sparks, Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football DB Qua Moss questionable vs Auburn, per SEC injury report (2026-10-02)
Dylan Lewis (DB) is out for the season for TENN
OUT FOR SEASONSafety; foot injury. Nuuz.Net republication of Adam Sparks, Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football DB Qua Moss questionable vs Auburn, per SEC injury report (2026-10-02)
Wendell Moe Jr. (OL) is out for the season for TENN
OUT FOR SEASONStarting left guard; lower-leg injury. Nuuz.Net republication of Adam Sparks, Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football DB Qua Moss questionable vs Auburn, per SEC injury report (2026-10-02) AOL / Vols Wire: Tennessee-Auburn football game updated injury report (2026-10-02)
Jadais Richard (DB) is out for the season for TENN
OUT FOR SEASONCornerback; upper-body injury. Nuuz.Net republication of Adam Sparks, Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football DB Qua Moss questionable vs Auburn, per SEC injury report (2026-10-02)
Ethan Davis (TE) is out for the season for TENN
OUT FOR SEASONStarting tight end; knee injury. Nuuz.Net republication of Adam Sparks, Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football DB Qua Moss questionable vs Auburn, per SEC injury report (2026-10-02)
Joakim Dodson (WR) is out for the season for TENN
OUT FOR SEASONWide receiver and kick returner; leg injury. Nuuz.Net republication of Adam Sparks, Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football DB Qua Moss questionable vs Auburn, per SEC injury report (2026-10-02)
Tai Buster (OL) is out for AUB
OUTOffensive lineman; listed out for the Tennessee game in Friday-update reporting. Condition undisclosed. Nuuz.Net republication of Adam Sparks, Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football DB Qua Moss questionable vs Auburn, per SEC injury report (2026-10-02)
Hunter Herring (TE) is out for AUB
OUTTight end; listed out for the Tennessee game in Friday-update reporting. Condition undisclosed. Nuuz.Net republication of Adam Sparks, Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football DB Qua Moss questionable vs Auburn, per SEC injury report (2026-10-02)
Kedric Golston II (DL) is out for TENN
OUTDefensive lineman; condition undisclosed. Nuuz.Net republication of Adam Sparks, Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football DB Qua Moss questionable vs Auburn, per SEC injury report (2026-10-02) AOL / Vols Wire: Tennessee-Auburn football game updated injury report (2026-10-02)
TEAM RECORD
SEC game: AUB 1-1, TENN 0-1 in conference
CONFERENCEThese two share the SEC. AUB is 1-1 against it, TENN is 0-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-03.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 3, 2026 at 8:09 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKCHAS NIMRODANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5
My side in this game is Auburn +6.5, and that ticket assumes Auburn can move the ball through the air against a Tennessee secondary missing three players for the season: safeties Edrees Farooq and Dylan Lewis and cornerback Jadais Richard. If I believe that, I want a piece of the receiver most likely to finish those drives, at the longest reasonable price.
That receiver is Chas Nimrod. Through four games he has 22 catches, tied with Keshaun Singleton for the team lead, for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns. Byrum Brown has thrown 6 touchdown passes, so Nimrod has caught a third of them. Singleton has the same number of catches but only one score, and the books still price him shorter at +165. Nimrod at +185 needs to score only about 35% of the time to break even. That is the better version of the same bet.
I passed on the shorter prices. Brown and Jeremiah Cobb at -115 both ask for better than a coin flip. Cobb has 2 rushing scores on 41 carries, and he would be running into a Tennessee front that already has 17 sacks. On the Tennessee side, my case for Auburn rests on the Vols' offense stalling, so I am not going to lay -105 on Mike Matthews or -111 on Faizon Brandon.
The risks are clear. A 60% chance of thunderstorms could cut down Auburn's passing and push its red-zone work toward Brown and Cobb on the ground. Brown's 5 interceptions could end drives before they reach the end zone. Singleton and Jeremiah Koger will also get looks inside the 20. This is a plus-money bet, not a lock. Still, it fits the way I think Auburn covers, and I like the price on the receiver who has done the most scoring.
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