Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats
O/U 45.5 · SPREAD Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Northwestern Wildcats ML +114
- Published odds
- +114
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 13-34
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 46 moves| Market | Opened Sep 27 4:03 PM | Close Oct 2 7:54 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-105) | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-118) | −½ |
| TOTAL | 47.5 (-105) | 47.5 (-105) | Holds |
| MONEYLINE | Penn State Nittany Lions -150 | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 | +5 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 27 4:03 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-105) | 47.5 (-105) | Penn State Nittany Lions -150 · Northwestern Wildcats +125 |
| Sep 27 7:05 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (+100) | 47.5 (-105) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Sep 27 8:05 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-102) | 47.5 (-105) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Sep 27 9:05 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-118) | 45.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -135 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Sep 28 12:05 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-112) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -135 · Northwestern Wildcats +110 |
| Sep 28 7:01 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-115) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -135 · Northwestern Wildcats +110 |
| Sep 28 8:01 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-115) | 45.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Sep 28 1:46 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-115) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Sep 28 3:17 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (+100) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Sep 28 4:17 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-115) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Sep 28 5:18 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-115) | 45.5 (-105) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Sep 28 6:18 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-115) | 45.5 (-105) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Sep 29 12:18 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-115) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Sep 29 6:00 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-115) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Sep 29 7:30 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-118) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Sep 29 12:03 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-125) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Sep 29 4:05 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-105) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Sep 29 5:05 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-102) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Sep 29 8:09 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-105) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Sep 29 10:09 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-102) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Sep 29 11:09 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-105) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Sep 30 6:00 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-105) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Sep 30 7:30 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-115) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Sep 30 1:34 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-125) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Sep 30 3:34 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-105) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Sep 30 5:35 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-118) | 45.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Sep 30 9:05 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-118) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Sep 30 10:05 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-115) | 45.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Oct 1 5:00 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-118) | 45.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Oct 1 8:00 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-105) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Oct 1 8:30 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-125) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Oct 1 9:00 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-125) | 45.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Oct 1 9:31 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-108) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Oct 1 10:31 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-125) | 45.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Oct 1 12:02 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-102) | 45.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Oct 1 5:04 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-102) | 45.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Oct 1 8:36 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-102) | 45.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Oct 2 5:00 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-105) | 45.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Oct 2 8:00 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-105) | 45.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
| Oct 2 5:21 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-115) | Penn State Nittany Lions -135 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Oct 2 5:32 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-115) | Penn State Nittany Lions -135 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Oct 2 5:42 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -135 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Oct 2 6:43 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -135 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Oct 2 6:53 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Oct 2 7:34 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-115) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| Oct 2 7:44 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-112) | 46.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -140 · Northwestern Wildcats +115 |
| CLOSEOct 2 7:54 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 (-118) | 47.5 (-105) | Penn State Nittany Lions -145 · Northwestern Wildcats +120 |
The read
Friday night in Evanston, a sold-out crowd christens the new Ryan Field. Penn State walks in six days removed from a home loss to Wisconsin and a players-only meeting.
I'm taking the home dog to win outright, and it starts with what each team has actually proven. Penn State's schedule ranks 118th, and the Nittany Lions haven't faced an SP+ top-50 opponent. The one real test went badly. Up 17-7 at the half against Wisconsin, they managed three points the rest of the way, and Rocco Becht finished 12 of 29 for 114 yards with no touchdowns. That was the first game without Koby Howard, whose 12 catches for 344 yards made him the downfield threat in this offense. Howard is out again tonight. Matt Campbell owned the lack of rhythm himself, and a 27.0% success rate on passing downs shows what happens when this offense falls behind the sticks.
Northwestern built its numbers against the 12th-ranked schedule. Aidan Chiles is completing 70.7% at 10.76 yards per attempt with six touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Wildcats went to Indiana, SP+ No. 4, and won the second half in a 23-29 loss. The offense produces 0.304 points added per play against Penn State's 0.220, and it finishes drives: 5.111 points per scoring opportunity to Penn State's 3.967. FPI grades Northwestern's offensive efficiency at 80.354 and Penn State's at 54.926.
Then there's the Penn State injury report: - Four defensive ends are out. - Three cornerbacks are out. - Linebacker Cam Smith was downgraded to out today. - Kicker Cristiano Rosa is out, with no confirmed replacement.
That defense earned its glossy numbers against a soft slate. Now it's missing a big piece of its edge and corner depth, and it faces a quarterback who hasn't thrown an interception all season. In a game this close on the board, an unproven leg on field goals and extra points carries weight.
Northwestern has real holes. Luke Dehnicke caught 7 passes for 140 yards at Indiana, and Dehnicke is out. So are the other two tight ends, which strips Chip Kelly's offense of its usual one-tight-end look. The run defense allows 199.3 yards a game, and Penn State's cleanest path is to lean on James Peoples and Carson Hansen. I believe in that path for stretches. I don't trust Penn State to sustain it for four quarters after what happened following halftime against Wisconsin. Griffin Wilde, with 14 catches for 245 yards, is still there for Chiles.
The two rating systems disagree on this game, and the market sits closer to the one that rates Northwestern's offense far ahead. At plus money, I'll back the team that has been tested against good opponents, at home on opening night, to win it outright.
Injuries noted
Penn State Nittany Lions: Daryus Dixson (questionable) — Starting cornerback; Oct. 2 reporting confirms Thursday's questionable designation. Campbell said he was dinged up against Wisconsin and practiced Wednesday.; Koby Howard (out) — Wide receiver; Oct. 2 report confirms he will miss the Northwestern game. Condition unspecified.; LaVar Arrington II (out) — Defensive end; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified.; Max Granville (out) — Defensive end; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Season-ending designation not verified in successfully opened current reporting.; Joshua Johnson (out) — Cornerback; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified.; Tyler Armstead (out) — Cornerback; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified.; Mason Robinson (out) — Defensive end; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified.; Dayshaun Burnett (out) — Defensive end; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified.; Will Tompkins (out) — Offensive lineman; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified.; Cooper Alexander (out) — Tight end; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified.; Cam Smith (out) — Linebacker; Oct. 2 report confirms downgrade to out. Condition unspecified.; Cristiano Rosa (out) — Kicker; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified.; Christian Askew (out) — Cornerback; Sept. 30 report confirms downgrade to out for Northwestern. Condition unspecified.
Northwestern Wildcats: Luke Dehnicke (out) — Tight end; Oct. 2 dated update reports him out against Penn State with an undisclosed injury, citing ESPN's Pete Thamel.; Hayden Eligon II (game-time decision) — Wide receiver; Oct. 2 dated update reports a game-time decision with a lower-body injury, citing Pete Thamel.; Josh Fussell (out) — Starting defensive back; downgraded to out on Thursday's availability report. Condition unspecified.; Braden Turner (doubtful) — Starting defensive back; doubtful on Thursday's report, as reported Oct. 2. Later status unverified in successfully opened reporting.; Damon Walters (questionable) — Starting defensive back; questionable in the Oct. 2 report covering Thursday's availability update. Later status unverified.; Jaden McDuffie (out) — Wide receiver; Sept. 30 dated update reports him unavailable against Penn State with an undisclosed injury.; Ezomo Oratokhai (out for season) — Starting offensive lineman; Sept. 30 game-specific reporting confirms a season-ending injury suffered against Colorado.; Jackson Carsello (out) — Offensive lineman; Oct. 1 preview reports him still sidelined with a neck injury from the season opener.; Seth Valeri (out) — Defensive back; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified.; Max Mohring (out) — Linebacker; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified.; Jason Reynolds II (out) — Linebacker; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified.; Qayvier Johnson (out) — Linebacker; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified.; Callen Campbell (out) — Defensive lineman; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified.; Migo Jackson (out) — Defensive lineman; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified.; Glory Stephen-Wangboje (out) — Defensive lineman; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified.; David Anchondo (out) — Offensive lineman; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified.; Jacob Miller (out) — Offensive lineman; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified.; Chris Petrucci (out) — Tight end; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified.; Tom McGlinchey (out) — Tight end; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified.; Nigel Glover (doubtful) — Linebacker; Sept. 29 initial report. Later status unverified.; Chase Farrell (questionable) — Wide receiver; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified.; Troy Regovich (questionable) — Defensive lineman; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Rocco Becht is PSU's projected starter
9.30 Y/ARocco Becht is PSU's projected starting quarterback. Oct. 1 game-specific reporting identifies Becht as Penn State's quarterback and quotes David Braun discussing preparation for him. No explicit game-day starting designation was retrieved. 2026 line: 865 passing yards, 61.3% completions, 9.30 yards per attempt, 9-1 TD-INT over 4 games.
Aidan Chiles is NU's projected starter
10.76 Y/AAidan Chiles is NU's projected starting quarterback. Northwestern's Oct. 1 game preview discusses Chiles as the quarterback leading its offense against Penn State. No explicit game-day starting designation was retrieved. 2026 line: 807 passing yards, 70.7% completions, 10.76 yards per attempt, 6-0 TD-INT over 3 games.
TRENCHES
PSU: 113.3 rushing yards allowed per game to NU's 199.3
86.1 YPGPSU is at 113.3 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; NU is at 199.3 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 1.
PACE & SCRIPT
PSU: 11.5 points allowed per game to NU's 18
6.5 PPGPSU is at 11.5 points allowed per game over 4 games; NU is at 18 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 1. Last season PSU was at 20.5 over 13 games and NU at 19.8 over 13 games.
PSU: 36.8 points per game to NU's 32.7
4.1 PPGPSU is at 36.8 points per game over 4 games; NU is at 32.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 1. Last season PSU was at 31 over 13 games and NU at 23.4 over 13 games.
MISMATCH
PSU: 179 rush yards a game to NU's 146
179 VS 146Penn State runs for 179 yards a game through 4 games, and Northwestern runs for 146 through 3. Penn State's number lines up with last season's 174.4 over 13 games, so it looks like who they are. Northwestern was at 160.2 last season, so its dip on a three-game sample may come back up. The edge on the ground leans Penn State, and the question for this game is whether Northwestern can keep its own run game close to last season's level and avoid becoming one-dimensional.
COVERAGE
PSU: 19.2% third downs allowed to NU's 44.7%
25.5 PPPSU is at 19.2% third downs allowed over 4 games; NU is at 44.7% over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 1.
PSU: 126.3 passing yards allowed per game to NU's 218
91.8 YPGPSU is at 126.3 passing yards allowed per game over 4 games; NU is at 218 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 1.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
NU lead the series with PSU since 2025
1-0 SERIESThe whole series is one game: NU went into PSU on Oct 11 last season and won 22-21, a one-point road win that could have gone either way. One meeting decided by a single point says very little about which side is better, so the series edge is thin. This time PSU travels to NU, so the venue flips from last year. For betting, lean on how each team looks this season rather than last year's coin-flip result.
REPLACEMENT
Max Granville (DE) is out for the season for PSU
OUT FOR SEASONDefensive end; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Season-ending designation not verified in successfully opened current reporting. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
Ezomo Oratokhai (OL) is out for the season for NU
OUT FOR SEASONStarting offensive lineman; Sept. 30 game-specific reporting confirms a season-ending injury suffered against Colorado. Concerning Northwestern Injury News Ahead of Penn State Matchup (2026-09-30)
Callen Campbell (DL) is out for NU
OUTDefensive lineman; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
Qayvier Johnson (LB) is out for NU
OUTLinebacker; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
Jason Reynolds II (LB) is out for NU
OUTLinebacker; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
Max Mohring (LB) is out for NU
OUTLinebacker; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
Seth Valeri (DB) is out for NU
OUTDefensive back; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
Jackson Carsello (OL) is out for NU
OUTOffensive lineman; Oct. 1 preview reports him still sidelined with a neck injury from the season opener. Previewing The Enemy: Northwestern Wildcats (2026-10-01)
Jaden McDuffie (WR) is out for NU
OUTWide receiver; Sept. 30 dated update reports him unavailable against Penn State with an undisclosed injury. Northwestern News — Jaden McDuffie: Won't suit up Saturday (2026-09-30)
Josh Fussell (DB) is out for NU
OUTStarting defensive back; downgraded to out on Thursday's availability report. Condition unspecified. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
Luke Dehnicke (TE) is out for NU
OUTTight end; Oct. 2 dated update reports him out against Penn State with an undisclosed injury, citing ESPN's Pete Thamel. Northwestern News — Luke Dehnicke: Sidelined vs. Penn State; Hayden Eligon: GTD but appears poised to return (2026-10-02)
Christian Askew (S) is out for PSU
OUTCornerback; Sept. 30 report confirms downgrade to out for Northwestern. Condition unspecified. Three More Players Out For Penn State Football Against Northwestern On Wednesday Availability Report (2026-09-30)
Cristiano Rosa (PK) is out for PSU
OUTKicker; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
Cooper Alexander (TE) is out for PSU
OUTTight end; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
Will Tompkins (OL) is out for PSU
OUTOffensive lineman; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
Dayshaun Burnett (DE) is out for PSU
OUTDefensive end; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
Mason Robinson (DE) is out for PSU
OUTDefensive end; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
Tyler Armstead (CB) is out for PSU
OUTCornerback; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
Joshua Johnson (CB) is out for PSU
OUTCornerback; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
Tom McGlinchey (TE) is out for NU
OUTTight end; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
Chris Petrucci (TE) is out for NU
OUTTight end; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
Jacob Miller (OL) is out for NU
OUTOffensive lineman; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
David Anchondo (OL) is out for NU
OUTOffensive lineman; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
Glory Stephen-Wangboje (DL) is out for NU
OUTDefensive lineman; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
Migo Jackson (DL) is out for NU
OUTDefensive lineman; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
Cam Smith (LB) is out for PSU
OUTLinebacker; Oct. 2 report confirms downgrade to out. Condition unspecified. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
LaVar Arrington II (DE) is out for PSU
OUTDefensive end; listed out in Oct. 2 reporting. Condition unspecified. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
Koby Howard (WR) is out for PSU
OUTWide receiver; Oct. 2 report confirms he will miss the Northwestern game. Condition unspecified. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
Nigel Glover (LB) is doubtful for NU
DOUBTFULLinebacker; Sept. 29 initial report. Later status unverified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
Braden Turner (DB) is doubtful for NU
DOUBTFULStarting defensive back; doubtful on Thursday's report, as reported Oct. 2. Later status unverified in successfully opened reporting. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
Hayden Eligon II (WR) is a game-time decision for NU
GAME-TIME DECISIONWide receiver; Oct. 2 dated update reports a game-time decision with a lower-body injury, citing Pete Thamel. Northwestern News — Luke Dehnicke: Sidelined vs. Penn State; Hayden Eligon: GTD but appears poised to return (2026-10-02)
Damon Walters (DB) is questionable for NU
QUESTIONABLEStarting defensive back; questionable in the Oct. 2 report covering Thursday's availability update. Later status unverified. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
Chase Farrell (WR) is questionable for NU
QUESTIONABLEWide receiver; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
Troy Regovich (DL) is questionable for NU
QUESTIONABLEDefensive lineman; Sept. 29 initial report. Condition unspecified. Penn State, Northwestern Release Initial Availability Reports (2026-09-29)
Daryus Dixson (CB) is questionable for PSU
QUESTIONABLEStarting cornerback; Oct. 2 reporting confirms Thursday's questionable designation. Campbell said he was dinged up against Wisconsin and practiced Wednesday. Penn State Week 5 injury report vs. Northwestern: Who’s in, who’s out, and who has to step up (2026-10-02)
SITUATIONAL
NU: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to PSU's 40%
60 PPPSU is at 40% fourth-down conversion rate over 4 games; NU is at 100% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 1. Last season PSU was at 59.4% over 13 games and NU at 58.6% over 13 games.
PSU: 44 penalty yards per game to NU's 59.3
15.3 YDSPSU is at 44 penalty yards per game over 4 games; NU is at 59.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 1. Last season PSU was at 37.3 over 13 games and NU at 33.8 over 13 games.
NU: 269 team passing yards per game to PSU's 243.8
25.3 YPGPSU is at 243.8 team passing yards per game over 4 games; NU is at 269 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 1. Last season PSU was at 187.6 over 13 games and NU at 185.9 over 13 games.
TEAM RECORD
Big Ten game: PSU 0-1, NU 0-1 in conference
CONFERENCEPenn State and Northwestern each dropped their only Big Ten game so far, so both come in looking for a first conference win. That is one game apiece, which is too small to call either team's league form. The loser falls to 0-2 in the Big Ten, and a bettor is better served weighing each side's overall season play than reading much into a single conference loss.
AFTER GARY
NU +114 → +116
NOW +0.43PPGary's number was 114; the same book now shows 116.
About this analysis
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Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKAIDAN CHILESANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5
Aidan Chiles has four rushing touchdowns in three games. On 30 carries he has only 20 rushing yards, because sacks come off his total in college stats. He isn't hurting defenses with long runs. He's the guy who finishes drives at the goal line. That fits the 5.111 points per scoring opportunity Northwestern has put up, and it's why I'm backing him to score tonight.
The injury reports on both sides push more of the short work to him. Northwestern is down all three tight ends, including Luke Dehnicke. That takes away the inline blocker and the easy red-zone target Chip Kelly would normally use near the goal line. With fewer bodies to block and fewer places to throw in a tight space, the simplest call inside the 5 is the quarterback keeping it.
Penn State's defense is in a bad spot to stop that. Four defensive ends are out, which is where a quarterback keeper gets contained. Cam Smith was downgraded to out today, which removes a linebacker who would be spying or filling the gap on a sneak. Their defensive numbers also came against the 118th-ranked schedule.
Price is the other reason. Plus-135 implies about 43%, and that's too low for a quarterback who scores rushing touchdowns at this pace and who also gets the snaps in short yardage. He doesn't need a big night throwing for this to cash. One trip inside the 5 where Kelly gives it to his quarterback is enough. This also lines up with my pick on Northwestern: if the Wildcats win, they very likely finish drives, and Chiles has been the one finishing them.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
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