Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks
O/U 50.5 · SPREAD Arkansas Razorbacks -7.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.5 -122
- Published odds
- -122
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 6-34
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 38 moves| Market | Opened Sep 21 6:00 AM | Close Sep 26 7:53 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5 (-112) | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-102) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 52.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-102) | −1 |
| MONEYLINE | Arkansas Razorbacks -235 | Arkansas Razorbacks -250 | −15 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 21 6:00 AM | Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5 (-112) | 52.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -235 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +200 |
| Sep 21 7:00 AM | Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5 (-112) | 52.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -250 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +210 |
| Sep 21 11:01 AM | Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5 (-112) | 52.5 (-112) | Arkansas Razorbacks -250 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +210 |
| Sep 21 12:01 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5 (-112) | 53.5 (-108) | Arkansas Razorbacks -250 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +210 |
| Sep 21 2:02 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5 (-112) | 53.5 (-108) | Arkansas Razorbacks -235 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +200 |
| Sep 21 3:02 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 52.5 (-105) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 21 4:03 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 51.5 (-115) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 21 5:03 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 51.5 (-118) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 21 9:05 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 51.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 22 12:33 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-110) | 49.5 (-112) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 22 4:26 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 49.5 (-112) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 23 11:04 AM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-105) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 23 2:05 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-105) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 23 4:06 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 23 6:06 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-105) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 23 9:08 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-105) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 24 1:22 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-108) | 50.5 (-105) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 24 1:52 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-105) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 24 3:54 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 24 4:54 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 24 7:25 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 24 9:25 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 25 5:01 AM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 25 10:31 AM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 25 1:01 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 25 4:00 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 25 4:31 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 25 9:36 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 25 9:46 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 26 9:53 AM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 26 11:24 AM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 26 11:34 AM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 26 11:45 AM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 26 5:10 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 26 5:31 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +225 |
| Sep 26 6:43 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-112) | 50.5 (-108) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 26 7:23 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| Sep 26 7:43 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-108) | 50.5 (-118) | Arkansas Razorbacks -275 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +220 |
| CLOSESep 26 7:53 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks -7 (-102) | 51.5 (-102) | Arkansas Razorbacks -250 · Tulsa Golden Hurricane +210 |
The read
Tulsa arrives in Fayetteville unbeaten for the nonconference finale. Arkansas returns home looking for traction under Ryan Silverfield after losses to Utah and Georgia.
I’m taking the points because Tulsa’s running game has a credible matchup against this Arkansas defense. Tulsa averages 220.3 rushing yards and succeeds on 54.1% of standard downs. Arkansas allows a 45.4% overall success rate, and its defense has surrendered 5.611 points per scoring opportunity. My read is that Tulsa can sustain enough offense through Damari Alston and Trequan Jones to keep Arkansas from controlling the game.
Baylor Hayes is out, and Dexter Williams II already started the latest win. Williams threw three touchdowns without an interception against East Texas A&M, though this assignment asks more of him. Tulsa’s 16.4% passing-down success rate is the clearest danger to the ticket. Arkansas produced three sacks and six tackles for loss against Georgia, so early rushing success matters considerably.
Tulsa can also make Arkansas uncomfortable. The Razorbacks average 75.3 rushing yards, while Tulsa has recorded 10 sacks, including four from Thomas Davis. With KJ Jackson and AJ Hill still sharing quarterback work, I expect Tulsa’s front to make Arkansas work for sustained possessions. Arkansas has averaged just 3.222 points per scoring opportunity, which makes laying more than a touchdown a demanding proposition.
The strongest argument for Arkansas is schedule quality. Its schedule ranks second, compared with Tulsa’s 107th, and opponent-adjusted SP+ ranks Arkansas’s offense 44th. Chris Marshall gives that passing game a productive receiving option. Those factors deserve weight, but the same adjusted ratings place Arkansas’s defense 105th. The defensive problems remain relevant even after accounting for opposition.
Tulsa’s vulnerability on passing downs keeps me on the spread rather than the outright win. I favor its rushing matchup and defensive disruption enough to pay the -122 for +7.5.
Injuries noted
Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Baylor Hayes (out) — Hayes has a knee injury; the September 25 starter report says his anticipated Week 4 availability is no longer the case and Williams will start instead.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Dexter Williams II is TLSA's confirmed starter
6.07 Y/ADexter Williams II is TLSA's confirmed starting quarterback. A September 25 report attributed to Pete Nakos states that Williams will start at Arkansas. 2026 line: 164 passing yards, 51.9% completions, 6.07 yards per attempt, 3-0 TD-INT over 2 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
TLSA: 9 points allowed per game to ARK's 34
25 PPGTulsa is allowing 9 points a game over three games, a sharp turn from 28.9 last season, while Arkansas sits at 34, near last year's 33.8. The Arkansas number looks stable. Tulsa's defense is the one to be skeptical of, since three games is a short look and a big improvement like that often reflects the schedule.
TLSA: 29.7 points per game to ARK's 19.3
10.3 PPGTLSA is at 29.7 points per game over 3 games; ARK is at 19.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 25. Last season TLSA was at 23.2 over 12 games and ARK at 32.9 over 12 games.
TURNOVERS
TLSA: 2 takeaways per game to ARK's 0.67
1.33 TOTLSA is at 2 takeaways per game over 3 games; ARK is at 0.67 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 25.
MISMATCH
TLSA: 220.3 rush yards a game to ARK's 75
220.3 VS 75Tulsa is running for 220.3 yards a game, up from 175.5 last season, while Arkansas is at 75 through three games after 191.9 last season. Arkansas's drop is steep for a team that ran well a year ago, so it is more likely to bounce back than stay this low. At home, Arkansas has to find its ground game or lean on the pass, and Tulsa's rushing edge could let it control the clock.
REPLACEMENT
Baylor Hayes (QB) is out for TLSA
OUTHayes has a knee injury; the September 25 starter report says his anticipated Week 4 availability is no longer the case and Williams will start instead. Dexter Williams News: Will start Week 4 (2026-09-25)
SITUATIONAL
ARK: 46.7% third-down conversion rate to TLSA's 24.4%
22.3 PPTLSA is at 24.4% third-down conversion rate over 3 games; ARK is at 46.7% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 25. Last season TLSA was at 37.9% over 12 games and ARK at 47.2% over 12 games.
ARK: 264 team passing yards per game to TLSA's 172.3
91.7 YPGArkansas throws for 264 a game over three games, almost identical to 262.9 last season, so that number is real. Tulsa is at 172.3, down from 222.4. Arkansas should keep dictating through the air at home. Tulsa's dip over three games could partly bounce back, but it faces a steep climb here.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 26, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betrivers, draftkings, betmgm, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKDAMARI ALSTONRUSHING YARDS OVER 52.5
I’m backing Alston to clear 52.5 rushing yards because Tulsa’s best route to sustained offense runs through the ground game. He has produced 186 yards on 36 carries across three games, an average of 5.2 yards per attempt, while Tulsa enters averaging 220.3 rushing yards with a 54.1% success rate on standard downs.
The workload is the main uncertainty, but this number does not require an extreme share. A dozen carries at his current efficiency would be enough, and keeping Dexter Williams II out of obvious passing situations should make Alston’s involvement a priority. Arkansas’s vulnerable defense gives him a reasonable path to meaningful gains before game script can become a concern.
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