Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers

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The research

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• GARY'S PICK

  SAM LEAVITTPASSING TOUCHDOWNS UNDER 1.5

  NCAAFLSU· -104

  LOST · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  Everyone looks at the 48 points a game LSU has hung at home and assumes the whole menu is available to Sam Leavitt. The shape of his production says otherwise. Through three games he is 57-of-93 for 732 yards, and only three of those completions have ended in the end zone — roughly a 3 percent touchdown rate on his attempts. In the same three games he has run in six scores himself. LSU's scoring in close has been coming on the ground, and that is not an accident: he has also thrown five interceptions, and this staff is not asking him to win games with tight-window throws near the goal line. The other half of this is who lines up across from him. A&M's defense is 24th in EPA and, more to the point here, allows just 2.31 points per scoring opportunity, 15th of 138. That is a unit that bends and then forces field goals. When LSU does get into scoring range, the Aggies have been the kind of defense that turns a would-be touchdown drive into three points, and that is before you get to the takeaway habit — two interceptions and eight passes defended against a quarterback who gives the ball away. For the over to cash, Leavitt has to throw two touchdowns against a top-25 defense that is stingy in the red zone, in a game whose total walked down from 53.5 to 52.5 for a reason. His own profile — one passing touchdown per game, twice as many rushing scores as passing ones — says that is the less likely outcome. At -104 I am getting basically even money on the side of the ball the tape and the game script both point to. This does not require Leavitt to play badly. It requires LSU to keep scoring the way it has been scoring, and for A&M to keep making offenses settle for three.

  ×

  Sam Leavitt
  Passing Touchdowns under 1.5

  -104 · LOST · ACTUAL 2

  LSU

  Read Gary’s Take

  Everyone looks at the 48 points a game LSU has hung at home and assumes the whole menu is available to Sam Leavitt. The shape of his production says otherwise. Through three games he is 57-of-93 for 732 yards, and only three of those completions have ended in the end zone — roughly a 3 percent touchdown rate on his attempts. In the same three games he has run in six scores himself. LSU's scoring in close has been coming on the ground, and that is not an accident: he has also thrown five interceptions, and this staff is not asking him to win games with tight-window throws near the goal line.

  The other half of this is who lines up across from him. A&M's defense is 24th in EPA and, more to the point here, allows just 2.31 points per scoring opportunity, 15th of 138. That is a unit that bends and then forces field goals. When LSU does get into scoring range, the Aggies have been the kind of defense that turns a would-be touchdown drive into three points, and that is before you get to the takeaway habit — two interceptions and eight passes defended against a quarterback who gives the ball away.

  For the over to cash, Leavitt has to throw two touchdowns against a top-25 defense that is stingy in the red zone, in a game whose total walked down from 53.5 to 52.5 for a reason. His own profile — one passing touchdown per game, twice as many rushing scores as passing ones — says that is the less likely outcome. At -104 I am getting basically even money on the side of the ball the tape and the game script both point to. This does not require Leavitt to play badly. It requires LSU to keep scoring the way it has been scoring, and for A&M to keep making offenses settle for three.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.