San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo Rockets

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• GARY'S PICK

  CONNOR WALENDZAKANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5

  NCAAFToledo· -175

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  If Toledo is going to beat San Diego State, the Rockets will most likely do it by grinding out drives rather than hitting big plays. The Aztecs rank 4th nationally at limiting explosive plays, so I don't expect Adjatay Dabbs to get behind them much. Their weakness is the front. San Diego State stuffs only 10.5% of runs and allows a 43.5% success rate, which means backs can keep picking up four to seven yards and pushing the ball into scoring range. Connor Walendzak is the back I want when those drives finish. Through three games he has 171 rushing yards on 24 carries, 7.1 yards a pop, with 3 rushing touchdowns. He has also caught 5 passes for 2 more scores. That's 5 touchdowns on 29 touches, and he scores both on the ground and as a receiver near the goal line. CJ Miller shares the carries, but Miller is at 4.3 yards a carry, and Walendzak has been the more productive and more versatile of the two. Toledo turns scoring opportunities into 5.0 points per trip, 20th nationally. San Diego State allows 3.6 per trip, 91st. I have the Rockets winning at home, and in a game where Toledo moves the ball methodically and finishes in the red zone, Walendzak is the most likely player to score. At -175 I'm paying real juice, and a split backfield is the risk. Still, I would take the back with two ways to score over the receiver running into a defense built to take away big plays.

  ×

  Connor Walendzak
  Anytime Touchdown over 0.5

  -175 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Toledo

  Read Gary’s Take

  If Toledo is going to beat San Diego State, the Rockets will most likely do it by grinding out drives rather than hitting big plays. The Aztecs rank 4th nationally at limiting explosive plays, so I don't expect Adjatay Dabbs to get behind them much. Their weakness is the front. San Diego State stuffs only 10.5% of runs and allows a 43.5% success rate, which means backs can keep picking up four to seven yards and pushing the ball into scoring range.

  Connor Walendzak is the back I want when those drives finish. Through three games he has 171 rushing yards on 24 carries, 7.1 yards a pop, with 3 rushing touchdowns. He has also caught 5 passes for 2 more scores. That's 5 touchdowns on 29 touches, and he scores both on the ground and as a receiver near the goal line. CJ Miller shares the carries, but Miller is at 4.3 yards a carry, and Walendzak has been the more productive and more versatile of the two.

  Toledo turns scoring opportunities into 5.0 points per trip, 20th nationally. San Diego State allows 3.6 per trip, 91st. I have the Rockets winning at home, and in a game where Toledo moves the ball methodically and finishes in the red zone, Walendzak is the most likely player to score. At -175 I'm paying real juice, and a split backfield is the risk. Still, I would take the back with two ways to score over the receiver running into a defense built to take away big plays.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.