Skip to content
GARY A.I.Get the app
NCAAF · Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM

Sam Houston Bearkats at Texas Tech Red Raiders

O/U 56.5 · SPREAD Texas Tech Red Raiders -34.5

GARY'S PICK
Sam Houston +34.5
NCAAF@ Texas Tech· -110

Sam Houston
+34.5

-110 · LOST · SHSU 14 · TTU 49

Texas Tech

The pick & result

Published pick
Sam Houston Bearkats +34.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Lost
Final score
14-49

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 42 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 20 3:42 PM
Close
Sep 26 11:55 AM
Move
SPREADTexas Tech Red Raiders -37 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-110)−2½
TOTAL55.5 (-102)55.5 (-115)Price
MONEYLINETexas Tech Red Raiders -50000Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000+25000

MONEYLINE first seen Sep 20 9:44 PM

Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 20 3:42 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -37 (-110)55.5 (-102)—
Sep 20 4:43 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -36 (-108)55.5 (+100)—
Sep 20 5:43 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -35.5 (-110)55.5 (+100)—
Sep 20 7:44 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -35.5 (-108)55.5 (+100)—
Sep 20 8:44 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -35.5 (-105)55.5 (+100)—
Sep 20 9:44 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -35 (-112)55.5 (+100)Texas Tech Red Raiders -50000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +5000
Sep 21 6:00 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -35.5 (-105)54.5 (-120)Texas Tech Red Raiders -35000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +5000
Sep 21 12:01 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -35.5 (-105)54.5 (-120)Texas Tech Red Raiders -50000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +5000
Sep 21 1:02 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -35 (-115)54.5 (-120)Texas Tech Red Raiders -100000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +5500
Sep 21 2:02 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-110)54.5 (-120)Texas Tech Red Raiders -35000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 21 3:02 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-110)54.5 (-120)Texas Tech Red Raiders -20000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 21 4:03 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)54.5 (-120)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 21 5:03 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34 (-110)54.5 (-115)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 21 7:04 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34 (-110)54.5 (-118)Texas Tech Red Raiders -15000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 21 11:06 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34 (-110)54.5 (-115)Texas Tech Red Raiders -15000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 22 9:31 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34 (-110)54.5 (-115)Texas Tech Red Raiders -15000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 22 10:32 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34 (-110)55.5 (-108)Texas Tech Red Raiders -20000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 22 11:32 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)55.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 22 12:33 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)55.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -20000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 22 1:17 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)55.5 (-108)Texas Tech Red Raiders -20000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 22 6:27 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34 (-110)55.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -20000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 23 6:00 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34 (-110)55.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 23 11:04 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34 (-110)55.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 23 12:04 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)55.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 23 6:06 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34 (-110)55.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -20000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 23 7:07 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)55.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 23 7:37 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)55.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -20000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 24 8:00 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)55.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 24 12:52 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)55.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -20000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 24 1:52 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)55.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -20000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 25 5:01 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)55.5 (-112)Texas Tech Red Raiders -20000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 25 6:00 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)55.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 25 8:01 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-112)55.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 25 9:31 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-112)55.5 (-125)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 25 2:01 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-110)56.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 25 5:43 PMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)56.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 26 5:00 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-110)56.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 26 7:00 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-110)56.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 26 8:31 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)56.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4000
Sep 26 9:11 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-108)56.5 (-105)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 26 9:53 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-110)56.5 (-108)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
Sep 26 11:45 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500
CLOSESep 26 11:55 AMTexas Tech Red Raiders -34.5 (-110)55.5 (-115)Texas Tech Red Raiders -25000 · Sam Houston Bearkats +4500

The read

Noon kickoff in a sold-out Lubbock. No. 11 Texas Tech closes its non-conference slate against a Sam Houston team that, in Phil Longo's words, came to find out where it's at.

Laying 34.5 asks Texas Tech to win by more than it has in any game this season. The Red Raiders have scored 33, 35 and 28. Their most lopsided result was 33-10 over Abilene Christian, an FCS opponent. A week ago they needed a replay-reviewed stop on a two-point try to hold off Houston 28-26. Joey McGuire's own read on his team was "We don't look the same, but we're 3-0." The per-play numbers agree with him: - Offense: success rate of 45.8%, 61st of 138, and 85th in explosiveness. - Defense: 107th in explosiveness allowed.

The two rating systems split on this game. SP+ has Texas Tech at 18.5 and Sam Houston at -16.3, which supports the number. FPI has them at 15.837 and -8.897, a much narrower gap. Both systems still lean on priors this early, and the Texas Tech team that has actually played looks closer to the FPI view. The market has already come down from -38.5 at the open.

Sam Houston has a real way to score: - Landyn Locke has 973 yards, 9 touchdowns and 1 interception, with three straight 300-yard games. That includes 335 at Troy and 316 against Tulsa. - Chris Reed has 204 yards on 9 catches, and Texas Tech's own defensive coordinator flagged him as a big-play guy. - Texas Tech's pass defense has allowed 819 passing yards in three games.

Protecting a big lead with Big 12 play next week, the Red Raiders face a pass-first offense that can keep adding points late. Every Bearkats touchdown raises the bar again.

The Sam Houston defense can also make Texas Tech earn long drives. The Bearkats rank 8th in success rate allowed and 10th in points allowed per scoring opportunity. That came against a soft schedule, but they blitz often and generate havoc. That matters against a Texas Tech offense that ranks 51st in points per scoring opportunity.

The risk is plain: - Sam Houston is 127th in explosiveness allowed and gave up 241 rushing yards to Tulsa. - J'Koby Williams averages 6.2 yards a carry. - Locke is not a runner and finished with negative rushing yards against both Troy and Tulsa. - The Bearkats were outscored after halftime in both FBS games.

If Texas Tech hits long runs early, this gets away fast. Still, this number requires the Red Raiders to be a team they haven't shown yet, so I'll take the points.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Landyn Locke is SHSU's confirmed starter

    9.01 Y/A

    Landyn Locke is SHSU's confirmed starting quarterback. KBTX (Sept 23, 2026) and Yahoo Sports (Sept 24, 2026) report Locke as Sam Houston's starter, having thrown for 335, 316 and 322 yards with 9 TDs and 1 INT through three games; KCBD (Sept 25, 2026) notes he ranks 7th nationally in passing yards (973) entering the Texas Tech game. 2026 line: 973 passing yards, 67.6% completions, 9.01 yards per attempt, 9-1 TD-INT over 3 games.

  • Will Hammond is TTU's confirmed starter

    8.55 Y/A

    Will Hammond is TTU's confirmed starting quarterback. KCBD reported Sept 25, 2026 that Hammond 'has established himself as the full-time starter' for Texas Tech, going 17-of-27 for 257 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT vs Houston; head coach Joey McGuire quoted discussing his performance. 2026 line: 744 passing yards, 72.4% completions, 8.55 yards per attempt, 3-2 TD-INT over 3 games.

TRENCHES

  • TTU: 106.7 rushing yards allowed per game to SHSU's 180.7

    74 YPG

    SHSU is at 180.7 rushing yards allowed per game over 3 games; TTU is at 106.7 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 25.

MISMATCH

  • SHSU: 345.7 pass yards a game to TTU's 250.7

    345.7 VS 250.7

    Sam Houston is throwing for 345.7 yards a game over 3 games, nearly double its 184.1 last season. Texas Tech is at 250.7, below its 278.5 a year ago. Sam Houston's number is far enough from its history to expect real regression, and early-season opponents may be doing some of the work. Texas Tech's passing game has the longer track record at home, so Sam Houston's air attack has to prove it against a bigger opponent.

COVERAGE

  • SHSU: 110 passing yards allowed per game to TTU's 263

    153 YPG

    Through 3 games, Sam Houston has allowed 110 passing yards a game and Texas Tech has allowed 263. The sheet doesn't say who either side played, so three games can't show whether Sam Houston's number reflects a good secondary or opponents that didn't throw much. For this game, expect the gap to narrow when a Texas Tech offense tests that pass defense on the road.

  • SHSU: 23.4% third downs allowed to TTU's 42.2%

    18.8 PP

    Sam Houston has let opponents convert fewer than one in four third downs through 3 games, while Texas Tech's defense has given up 42.2% over the same stretch. Three games is a small sample, and the sheet doesn't say who those offenses were, so part of that gap may be schedule. When Sam Houston is on offense, the Tech number is the softer one, which matters for how long its drives last and how many points it can put up.

REPLACEMENT

  • DJ Bailey (QB) is suspended for SHSU

    SUSPENDED

    KBTX (Sept 23, 2026) reported backup QB DJ Bailey was removed from Sam Houston's roster following the Nicholls homecoming win after reportedly taking off his shoulder pads before the game ended; head coach Phil Longo called it 'an in-house issue that is ongoing.' Backup QB DJ Bailey off Sam Houston roster following homecoming win (2026-09-23)

SITUATIONAL

  • SHSU: 345.7 team passing yards per game to TTU's 250.7

    95 YPG

    Sam Houston is throwing for 345.7 a game over three games after only 184.1 last season, a huge change that points to either a new offensive approach or a light schedule. Texas Tech is at 250.7, down from 278.5 last year. A road game at Tech is the real test of whether that passing jump is real. Be wary of paying for the 345.7 until it shows up against a stronger defense.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 26, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, draftkings, betmgm.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every NCAAF game this dayThe NCAAF recordToday's NCAAF picksEvery sport this day