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NCAAF · Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM

Ole Miss Rebels at Florida Gators

O/U 59.5 · SPREAD Florida Gators -3.5

GARY'S PICK
Florida -3.5
NCAAFvs Ole Miss· -106

Florida
-3.5

-106 · CASHED · MISS 28 · FLA 52

Ole Miss

The pick & result

Published pick
Florida Gators -3.5 -106
Published odds
-106
Result
Won
Final score
28-52

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 83 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 20 6:01 AM
Close
Sep 26 3:28 PM
Move
SPREADFlorida Gators -2 (-110)Florida Gators -4 (-108)+2
TOTAL58.5 (-105)58.5 (-110)Price
MONEYLINEFlorida Gators -130Florida Gators -190−60
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 20 6:01 AMFlorida Gators -2 (-110)58.5 (-105)Florida Gators -130 · Ole Miss Rebels +105
Sep 20 11:12 AMFlorida Gators -2.5 (-108)58.5 (-105)Florida Gators -130 · Ole Miss Rebels +110
Sep 20 12:12 PMFlorida Gators -2.5 (-108)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -130 · Ole Miss Rebels +110
Sep 20 1:12 PMFlorida Gators -2.5 (-110)58.5 (-115)Florida Gators -135 · Ole Miss Rebels +110
Sep 20 1:42 PMFlorida Gators -2.5 (-110)59.5 (-105)Florida Gators -140 · Ole Miss Rebels +115
Sep 20 2:12 PMFlorida Gators -2.5 (-115)59.5 (-105)Florida Gators -140 · Ole Miss Rebels +115
Sep 20 2:42 PMFlorida Gators -2.5 (-115)59.5 (-108)Florida Gators -140 · Ole Miss Rebels +115
Sep 20 3:42 PMFlorida Gators -2.5 (-115)59.5 (-108)Florida Gators -140 · Ole Miss Rebels +115
Sep 20 4:43 PMFlorida Gators -3 (-108)60.5 (-108)Florida Gators -145 · Ole Miss Rebels +120
Sep 20 5:43 PMFlorida Gators -3 (-110)60.5 (-110)Florida Gators -145 · Ole Miss Rebels +120
Sep 20 6:43 PMFlorida Gators -3 (-108)60.5 (-112)Florida Gators -145 · Ole Miss Rebels +120
Sep 20 7:44 PMFlorida Gators -3 (-112)61.5 (-102)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 20 8:44 PMFlorida Gators -3 (-112)61.5 (-105)Florida Gators -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 20 9:44 PMFlorida Gators -3 (-112)60.5 (-110)Florida Gators -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 21 6:00 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-102)60.5 (-110)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 21 11:01 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-102)60.5 (-110)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Sep 21 12:01 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)60.5 (-110)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Sep 21 1:02 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-102)60.5 (-112)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Sep 21 3:02 PMFlorida Gators -3 (-115)60.5 (-112)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 21 4:03 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)60.5 (-115)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 21 5:03 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)61.5 (-102)Florida Gators -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 21 6:03 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-102)61.5 (-105)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Sep 21 7:04 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-102)61.5 (-105)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 21 8:04 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-102)61.5 (-105)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 21 11:06 PMFlorida Gators -3 (-118)61.5 (-105)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 22 12:06 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)61.5 (-105)Florida Gators -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 22 6:00 AMFlorida Gators -3 (-118)61.5 (-105)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Sep 22 8:30 AMFlorida Gators -3 (-115)61.5 (-105)Florida Gators -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 22 9:31 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)60.5 (-108)Florida Gators -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 22 10:32 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)60.5 (-108)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 22 11:32 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-102)60.5 (-108)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 22 12:33 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 22 2:17 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 22 4:26 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 22 5:26 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 22 6:27 PMFlorida Gators -3 (-120)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 23 12:28 AMFlorida Gators -3 (-110)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 23 6:00 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-110)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 23 9:38 AMFlorida Gators -3 (-115)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -150 · Ole Miss Rebels +125
Sep 23 11:04 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-102)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -145 · Ole Miss Rebels +125
Sep 23 12:04 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)58.5 (-110)Florida Gators -145 · Ole Miss Rebels +125
Sep 23 1:05 PMFlorida Gators -3 (-115)58.5 (-110)Florida Gators -150 · Ole Miss Rebels +125
Sep 23 3:05 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -150 · Ole Miss Rebels +125
Sep 23 4:06 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-102)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 23 5:06 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-102)58.5 (-115)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 23 7:07 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 23 9:39 PMFlorida Gators -3 (-120)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sep 23 11:10 PMFlorida Gators -3 (-120)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Sep 24 12:22 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-102)58.5 (-115)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Sep 24 1:22 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Sep 24 1:52 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-102)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Sep 24 5:54 PMFlorida Gators -3 (-115)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Sep 24 6:55 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Sep 24 8:25 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +140
Sep 24 9:25 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Sep 25 12:26 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +140
Sep 25 5:01 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Sep 25 8:31 AMFlorida Gators -3 (-118)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Sep 25 10:31 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +140
Sep 25 2:01 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-110)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Sep 25 3:33 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +140
Sep 25 4:00 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +140
Sep 25 8:24 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +145
Sep 25 8:34 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-110)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +140
Sep 25 8:44 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +145
Sep 25 8:54 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-102)58.5 (-110)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +140
Sep 26 12:07 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-110)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +145
Sep 26 5:00 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +145
Sep 26 7:30 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +140
Sep 26 8:00 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-108)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +145
Sep 26 10:34 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-110)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +145
Sep 26 11:14 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-110)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -185 · Ole Miss Rebels +150
Sep 26 11:34 AMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-110)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +145
Sep 26 12:16 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-110)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +145
Sep 26 12:26 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-110)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +150
Sep 26 12:57 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-110)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -185 · Ole Miss Rebels +150
Sep 26 1:47 PMFlorida Gators -3.5 (-105)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +145
Sep 26 1:57 PMFlorida Gators -4 (-110)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -185 · Ole Miss Rebels +150
Sep 26 2:07 PMFlorida Gators -4 (-102)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -185 · Ole Miss Rebels +150
Sep 26 2:17 PMFlorida Gators -4 (-102)58.5 (-110)Florida Gators -185 · Ole Miss Rebels +150
Sep 26 2:48 PMFlorida Gators -4 (-102)58.5 (-112)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +145
Sep 26 2:58 PMFlorida Gators -4 (-105)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +145
Sep 26 3:18 PMFlorida Gators -4 (-105)58.5 (-108)Florida Gators -175 · Ole Miss Rebels +150
CLOSESep 26 3:28 PMFlorida Gators -4 (-108)58.5 (-110)Florida Gators -190 · Ole Miss Rebels +155

The read

A sold-out Swamp welcomes two unbeaten SEC teams coming off conference wins. Ole Miss takes its first true road trip, while Florida gets a chance to validate its start under Jon Sumrall.

I’m laying the points because Florida has the stronger combination of offensive explosiveness and defensive disruption in this matchup. Jadan Baugh has 458 rushing yards and eight touchdowns through three games, and Florida’s offense ranks 10th in explosiveness. The Gators carried that balanced production into Auburn, generating 243 rushing yards and 252 passing yards. Their ability to threaten through both phases gives Florida a credible route to separation.

Ole Miss can challenge that balance. Its defensive front has stuffed 25.0% of opposing carries, and Florida’s passing-down success rate is 31.0%. That is the Rebels’ best defensive opening. My judgment is that Florida’s reported emphasis on shifts and motion, combined with Baugh’s production and Aaron Philo’s passing efficiency, gives the Gators enough ways to avoid repeatedly depending on difficult passing downs.

The other matchup pushes me toward Florida as well. Kewan Lacy is doubtful after injuring his shoulder against LSU. His season production remains part of Ole Miss’s offensive averages, so those numbers do not fully describe the challenge of playing without him if he cannot go. Florida has recorded 11 sacks through three games, and Ole Miss has specifically prepared extra protection and edge chips. I expect that disruption to make sustaining drives more demanding for Trinidad Chambliss.

Chambliss is the strongest objection to this ticket. He threw for 363 yards against LSU, Ole Miss succeeds on 39.0% of passing downs, and Florida has allowed 4.429 points per scoring opportunity. The Rebels also faced the harder schedule. Their passing offense gives them a genuine chance to keep this competitive.

I still prefer Florida’s ability to create damaging plays while forcing Ole Miss to work through protection and backfield concerns. The Gators’ defensive disruption and broader offensive options give me enough reason to lay 3.5 at -106.

Injuries noted

Ole Miss Rebels: Cedrick Beavers (out) — Cornerback; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition.; Dorian Barney (out) — Cornerback; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition.; MJ Preston (out) — Safety; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition.; Ant Davis Jr. (out) — Linebacker; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition.; JaMichael Garrett (out) — Linebacker; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition.; Victor Lincoln Jr. (out) — Cornerback; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition.; Craig Tutt (out) — Safety; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition.; Jalan Chapman (out) — Offensive lineman; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition.; Emanuel Faulkner (out) — Offensive lineman; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with a knee injury.; Kewan Lacy (doubtful) — Starting running back; Friday night's SEC report downgraded him from questionable to doubtful because of the left-shoulder injury sustained against LSU.

Florida Gators: Eric Singleton Jr. (questionable) — Starting wide receiver; Florida's Friday-morning availability report lists him questionable with an ankle injury. Offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner said he was close to returning from a high-ankle sprain.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Trinidad Chambliss is MISS's confirmed starter

    8.40 Y/A

    Trinidad Chambliss is MISS's confirmed starting quarterback. Florida's September 25 official preview identifies Chambliss as the Rebels' starter and discusses him as Ole Miss's quarterback for this matchup. 2026 line: 924 passing yards, 70.0% completions, 8.40 yards per attempt, 7-2 TD-INT over 3 games.

  • Aaron Philo is FLA's confirmed starter

    11.27 Y/A

    Aaron Philo is FLA's confirmed starting quarterback. Florida's September 25 official preview identifies Philo as the Gators quarterback and describes his prior game as his first road start; no current-week report indicates a renewed competition or replacement. 2026 line: 721 passing yards, 73.4% completions, 11.27 yards per attempt, 6-2 TD-INT over 3 games.

TRENCHES

  • FLA: 94.7 rushing yards allowed per game to MISS's 159

    64.3 YPG

    Florida has allowed 94.7 rushing yards a game through 3 games, and Ole Miss has given up 159. Three games is a small sample, and without opponent details it's unclear how much of Florida's number comes from the schedule. The softer run defense belongs to Ole Miss, so Florida's ground game is the side more likely to find room here.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • FLA: 54 points per game to MISS's 38

    16 PPG

    Florida is scoring 54 a game through three games after 21.6 last season, a jump that almost certainly reflects soft early opponents. Ole Miss at 38 is right in line with its 36.9 from last year, so its number is the steadier one. Expect Florida's average to come down against a real offense. The market may be pricing Florida off an early-season number that three games cannot support.

  • FLA: 33:06 time of possession per game to MISS's 27:11

    5:55 TOP

    Florida has held the ball for over 33 minutes a game through three games, up from 29:47 last season, and Ole Miss has been on offense less than usual at 27:11 after 28:46 last season. Ole Miss's lower number fits a fast-scoring offense that doesn't need long drives. If Florida can grind clock at home, it limits how many chances Ole Miss gets, which is how Florida would want this game played.

TURNOVERS

  • FLA: 2 takeaways per game to MISS's 0.67

    1.33 TO

    MISS is at 0.67 takeaways per game over 3 games; FLA is at 2 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 25.

MISMATCH

  • FLA: 241 rush yards a game to MISS's 110.7

    241 VS 110.7

    Florida is running for 241 yards a game over 3 games, up from 136.8 last season. Ole Miss sits at 110.7, down from 176.3 over 15 games a year ago. Both are three-game numbers far from last season, so expect each to move back toward those marks. At home Florida can lean on the run to control the clock, and Ole Miss has to find more balance than it has shown so far.

REPLACEMENT

  • Emanuel Faulkner (OL) is out for MISS

    OUT

    Offensive lineman; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with a knee injury. The Opening Kickoff: No. 21 Gators vs. No. 4 Ole Miss — SEC Swamp Showdown (2026-09-25)

  • Jalan Chapman (OL) is out for MISS

    OUT

    Offensive lineman; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition. The Opening Kickoff: No. 21 Gators vs. No. 4 Ole Miss — SEC Swamp Showdown (2026-09-25)

  • Craig Tutt (S) is out for MISS

    OUT

    Safety; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition. The Opening Kickoff: No. 21 Gators vs. No. 4 Ole Miss — SEC Swamp Showdown (2026-09-25)

  • Victor Lincoln Jr. (CB) is out for MISS

    OUT

    Cornerback; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition. The Opening Kickoff: No. 21 Gators vs. No. 4 Ole Miss — SEC Swamp Showdown (2026-09-25)

  • JaMichael Garrett (LB) is out for MISS

    OUT

    Linebacker; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition. The Opening Kickoff: No. 21 Gators vs. No. 4 Ole Miss — SEC Swamp Showdown (2026-09-25)

  • Ant Davis Jr. (LB) is out for MISS

    OUT

    Linebacker; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition. The Opening Kickoff: No. 21 Gators vs. No. 4 Ole Miss — SEC Swamp Showdown (2026-09-25)

  • MJ Preston (S) is out for MISS

    OUT

    Safety; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition. The Opening Kickoff: No. 21 Gators vs. No. 4 Ole Miss — SEC Swamp Showdown (2026-09-25)

  • Dorian Barney (CB) is out for MISS

    OUT

    Cornerback; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition. The Opening Kickoff: No. 21 Gators vs. No. 4 Ole Miss — SEC Swamp Showdown (2026-09-25)

  • Cedrick Beavers (CB) is out for MISS

    OUT

    Cornerback; Friday-morning availability report lists him out with an undisclosed condition. The Opening Kickoff: No. 21 Gators vs. No. 4 Ole Miss — SEC Swamp Showdown (2026-09-25)

  • Kewan Lacy (RB) is doubtful for MISS

    DOUBTFUL

    Starting running back; Friday night's SEC report downgraded him from questionable to doubtful because of the left-shoulder injury sustained against LSU. With Kewan Lacy ‘Doubtful’ to Play Against Florida, It’s Next Man Up for Ole Miss (2026-09-26)

SITUATIONAL

  • No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida

    #4 VS #21

    Ole Miss jumped four spots to No. 4 and picked up 3 first-place votes, while Florida enters the poll for the first time at No. 21 with 269 points. Both are 3-0, so each ranking rests on three games. The four-spot climb means Ole Miss is earning respect week to week, and Florida's first appearance is fragile at this depth of the poll. Florida at home has a lot to gain, and a loss would likely drop it right back out.

TEAM RECORD

  • SEC game: MISS 1-0, FLA 1-0 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    Ole Miss and Florida both won their SEC openers, so this is a meeting of two unbeaten conference teams, one game in. A single win each, with no opponent or margin listed, is too small to separate them. One of these 1-0 marks ends on Saturday. The records cancel out, so the edge in this game has to come from the matchup and Florida playing at home.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 26, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betmgm, betrivers, fanatics, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

1
  • GARY'S PICK
    AARON PHILOPASSING YARDS OVER 231.5
    NCAAFFlorida· -115

    Aaron Philo
    Passing Yards over 231.5

    -115 · LOST · ACTUAL 196

    Florida

    I’m backing Philo to clear a number slightly below the 240.3 passing yards he has averaged across his three dated games. Ole Miss has stuffed 25.0% of opposing carries, which can push Florida away from repeatedly challenging the strength of the Rebels’ defense and toward a more balanced plan built around shifts, motion and play action.

    Philo has completed 47 of 64 passes for 721 yards, giving him both the efficiency and explosiveness to reach this line without requiring extreme volume. Florida also produced 252 passing yards against Auburn, showing that its offense can sustain production through the air in conference play.

    The concern is Florida playing from ahead and leaning heavily on Jadan Baugh. Ole Miss can also create difficult passing downs, where the Gators have posted a 31.0% success rate. Even so, I expect the Rebels’ strong run front to keep Philo involved long enough for him to get beyond 231.5 yards.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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