Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs
O/U 58.5 · SPREAD Mississippi State Bulldogs -4.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Missouri Tigers +5.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 24-31
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 52 moves| Market | Opened Sep 20 3:42 PM | Close Sep 26 7:43 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Mississippi State Bulldogs -4.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5 (-108) | −1 |
| TOTAL | 59.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | −1 |
| MONEYLINE | Mississippi State Bulldogs -190 | Mississippi State Bulldogs -175 | +15 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 20 3:42 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -4.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -190 · Missouri Tigers +160 |
| Sep 20 4:43 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-115) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -190 · Missouri Tigers +155 |
| Sep 20 5:43 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -190 · Missouri Tigers +155 |
| Sep 20 7:44 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -210 · Missouri Tigers +170 |
| Sep 20 8:44 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -220 · Missouri Tigers +180 |
| Sep 21 6:00 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-112) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -220 · Missouri Tigers +180 |
| Sep 21 7:00 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -220 · Missouri Tigers +180 |
| Sep 21 11:01 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-115) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +190 |
| Sep 21 12:01 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +190 |
| Sep 21 1:02 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +190 |
| Sep 21 6:03 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +190 |
| Sep 21 7:04 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +190 |
| Sep 22 9:31 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +195 |
| Sep 22 11:32 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +190 |
| Sep 22 2:17 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +195 |
| Sep 23 6:00 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +190 |
| Sep 23 8:00 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +195 |
| Sep 23 8:59 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +190 |
| Sep 23 12:04 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +190 |
| Sep 23 2:05 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-108) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +190 |
| Sep 23 4:06 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +190 |
| Sep 23 9:08 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +185 |
| Sep 24 10:01 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +188 |
| Sep 24 12:22 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +185 |
| Sep 24 1:22 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +185 |
| Sep 24 2:54 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +185 |
| Sep 24 3:54 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +185 |
| Sep 24 6:55 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +185 |
| Sep 24 7:55 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -235 · Missouri Tigers +190 |
| Sep 25 10:31 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +188 |
| Sep 25 2:32 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-112) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +185 |
| Sep 25 3:02 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +185 |
| Sep 26 6:00 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -220 · Missouri Tigers +180 |
| Sep 26 8:31 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-108) | 58.5 (-112) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +185 |
| Sep 26 9:00 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (-108) | 58.5 (-112) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +185 |
| Sep 26 9:11 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +188 |
| Sep 26 9:22 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -225 · Missouri Tigers +188 |
| Sep 26 9:32 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -220 · Missouri Tigers +180 |
| Sep 26 10:23 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -220 · Missouri Tigers +180 |
| Sep 26 10:34 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -210 · Missouri Tigers +175 |
| Sep 26 10:44 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -210 · Missouri Tigers +175 |
| Sep 26 10:54 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5 (-110) | 58.5 (-112) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -210 · Missouri Tigers +175 |
| Sep 26 11:14 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5 (-108) | 58.5 (-112) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -210 · Missouri Tigers +175 |
| Sep 26 1:27 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -4.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-108) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -210 · Missouri Tigers +170 |
| Sep 26 5:52 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -4.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-108) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -210 · Missouri Tigers +175 |
| Sep 26 6:02 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-108) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -185 · Missouri Tigers +155 |
| Sep 26 6:12 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-108) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -185 · Missouri Tigers +150 |
| Sep 26 6:23 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-108) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -175 · Missouri Tigers +145 |
| Sep 26 6:43 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-108) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -175 · Missouri Tigers +145 |
| Sep 26 7:13 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -175 · Missouri Tigers +145 |
| Sep 26 7:23 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-112) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -175 · Missouri Tigers +145 |
| Sep 26 7:33 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-112) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -175 · Missouri Tigers +145 |
| CLOSESep 26 7:43 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs -175 · Missouri Tigers +145 |
The read
Two undefeated SEC teams, both ranked, a 7:45 night kick in Starkville between No. 19 Missouri and No. 24 Mississippi State. The number opened at Bulldogs -3.5 and has been bet up to -5.5, and the moneyline sits past the house limit, so this is a spread ticket whichever way I lean. I'm taking the points with the road team. The models split, and that split is the entire case. FPI hands Mississippi State a few points before you even apply the venue.
SP+, which adjusts for opponent, rates Missouri as the slightly better team on a neutral field. When two respected numbers disagree by this much, I would rather be on the side catching more than a field goal than laying it at a number the market has already pushed up a couple of points off the open. Missouri's defense is the reason I trust the dog. It sits 13th in SP+, allows a success rate of 31.6 percent (16th of 138), and its defensive line creates genuine disruption with a 24.2 percent stuff rate and 0.254 havoc. That is the profile of a unit built to get off the field on standard downs and force a big-play-reliant offense to string together long drives. Austin Simmons is a clean, efficient quarterback (68.7 percent, eight touchdowns, zero interceptions), and Jamal Roberts has been building week over week (47, then 125, then 128 rushing yards), so the Tigers can stay on schedule and move the chains. The counterargument is real, and it is the one thing that worries me.
Mississippi State's offense is genuinely explosive, third in the country in EPA per play and a dual-threat problem with Kamario Taylor (68.3 percent, 11 touchdowns, one interception, plus 86 and 59 rushing yards in his two best games). Missouri's defense gives up explosive gains at 1.494, 134th of 138. That is a bad matchup on paper and the likeliest way this pick goes wrong, because one busted assignment in space is a touchdown against this offense. What keeps me on the dog is Mississippi State's own defense, which is only 56th in SP+, and a Missouri offense that does not need to win a track meet to stay inside a five-and-a-half point cushion. The Tigers hold a plus-three turnover margin and Simmons has not thrown a pick, while the Bulldogs are even at zero in margin. In a game priced this tight, one clean possession swing matters, and Missouri has been the more careful team. The number has moved toward the favorite, the better opponent-adjusted model likes the underdog, and I'm getting more than a field goal with a defense that can force this into a one-score game.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
TRENCHES
MSST: 244 rushing yards per game to MIZ's 173.7
70.3 YPGMississippi State is running for 244 a game through three games, up from 158 last season, while Missouri has dropped to 173.7 from 228.3. Three games can swing on one soft opponent, so both numbers will likely drift toward last season. Missouri was the stronger ground team over 13 games a year ago. If the Bulldogs keep controlling the clock on the ground at home, the game shortens, which matters for totals.
TURNOVERS
MIZ: 1.67 takeaways per game to MSST's 0.67
1 TOMissouri has forced 1.67 turnovers a game and Mississippi State 0.67, both over three games. Three games of takeaways is a thin, noisy sample, and fumble luck alone can move it a lot. There is no opponent detail here to say whether Missouri faced mistake-prone offenses. Expect the two numbers to drift toward each other, so give Missouri only a slight nod in any turnover-driven angle.
MISMATCH
MSST: 244 rush yards a game to MIZ's 173.7
244 VS 173.7Mississippi State is running for 244 yards a game through 3 games, up from 158 last season, while Missouri sits at 173.7 after averaging 228.3 last year. Both numbers come from 3 games, so the early schedule shapes them heavily. Last season points the other way, which makes this gap likely to narrow. At home, Mississippi State leaning on the ground game is the natural script, but Missouri's history says it can match them.
COVERAGE
MIZ: 171 passing yards allowed per game to MSST's 233.7
62.7 YPGMissouri allows 171 passing yards a game and Mississippi State 233.7, both over three games. The 62.7-yard gap favors Missouri, though the opponents behind those numbers are not listed. Mississippi State's pass defense is the one giving up chunks, which is a good setup for Missouri's quarterback in Starkville.
SITUATIONAL
No. 19 Missouri at No. 24 Mississippi State
#19 VS #24Missouri is 3-0 at No. 19 with 369 points and up one spot, while Mississippi State just entered the poll at No. 24 with 179 points, also 3-0. Mississippi State's ranking is brand new and built on three games, so it is the most fragile number here. The home side has the most to lose: a loss likely drops it straight back out, and a win would make its ranking look earned.
AFTER GARY
MIZ +5.5 → +3.5
GARY +2Gary's number was 5.5; the market closed at 3.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 26, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betrivers, fanatics, betmgm, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKDONOVAN OLUGBODEANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5
Missouri is going to have to score to stay inside this number, and if the Tigers are scoring, Olugbode is the likeliest man to finish the drive. He is the clear No. 1 red-zone weapon here: four touchdowns in three games, plus 17 catches for 268 yards, and nobody else on this roster is anywhere near that scoring rate. Simmons has been the cleanest quarterback in the country at protecting the ball (eight touchdowns, zero picks), and Mississippi State's defense is only 56th in SP+, so Missouri should move the chains and reach scoring territory plenty. That is the setup I want for a red-zone target.
The price is the whole reason this is the ticket. Getting plus money on a player who is scoring better than once a game is a number the market is handing out, not one it is charging for. I do not need Olugbode to win a track meet or post a giant yardage day; I need him to be on the field when the Tigers get close, and that has been his role all season. In a game I expect to stay within one score, I want the guy who finishes drives, and at +119 he is the best-value click on this board.
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