Incarnate Word Cardinals at Texas State Bobcats

Injuries noted

Texas State Bobcats: Beau Sparks (game-time decision) — Wide receiver; an undisclosed condition made him a game-time decision against Incarnate Word, according to reporting attributed to Caleb Yum of the Austin American-Statesman.; Zechariah Sample (game-time decision) — Wide receiver; an undisclosed condition made him a game-time decision against Incarnate Word, according to reporting attributed to Caleb Yum of the Austin American-Statesman.; Kylen Evans (game-time decision) — Wide receiver; a shoulder injury made him a game-time decision against Incarnate Word, according to reporting attributed to Caleb Yum of the Austin Statesman.

QUARTERBACK

• Emmett Brown is UIW's projected starter

  7.84 Y/A

  Emmett Brown is UIW's projected starting quarterback. UIW's September 19 official recap calls Brown its quarterback, calls David Rasor the backup and identifies Texas State as the next game; no successfully opened current-week source explicitly announced Brown as the starter. 2026 line: 792 passing yards, 65.3% completions, 7.84 yards per attempt, 4-4 TD-INT over 3 games.

• Brad Jackson is TXST's projected starter

  8.17 Y/A

  Brad Jackson is TXST's projected starting quarterback. A September 21 report identifies Jackson as Texas State's quarterback and says he will face Incarnate Word, but it does not quote a formal starter announcement for this game. 2026 line: 613 passing yards, 64.0% completions, 8.17 yards per attempt, 5-3 TD-INT over 3 games.

TRENCHES

• TXST: 262.3 rushing yards per game to UIW's 201.7

  60.7 YPG

  UIW is at 201.7 rushing yards per game over 3 games; TXST is at 262.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 25. Last season UIW was at 147.2 over 12 games and TXST at 222.1 over 13 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

• UIW: 44.7 points per game to TXST's 27.3

  17.3 PPG

  Incarnate Word has scored at a much higher clip than Texas State through three games, a big swing from last season when UIW sat at 25.7 and TXST at 36.5. Three games can inflate a scoring average fast, and Texas State's history says 27.3 is closer to a floor. Expect some pull back toward last year's numbers on both sides before treating UIW as the better offense in this game.

• UIW: 25 points allowed per game to TXST's 41.7

  16.7 PPG

  Texas State is allowing 41.7 points a game over three games, a big jump from 29 last season, while UIW sits at 25, nearly identical to last year's 25.5. The UIW number looks like who they are. The TXST figure is a small sample and could ease, but pair it with UIW's hot offense and this sets up as a game where the home defense has to prove it can get stops.

• UIW @ TXST carries a 65.5 market total

  65.5

  This is the highest total on the list at 65.5, 11 points above the 54.5 median across 41 games. The market expects lots of possessions and quick scoring, with one side likely putting up points in bunches. It holds if the pace stays fast; it cracks if one team grinds clock with a big lead and the second half goes quiet. The game script late matters more than the first half here.

TURNOVERS

• TXST: 1.67 turnovers committed per game to UIW's 3.67

  2 TO

  UIW has given the ball away almost four times a game over three games, more than double last season's 1.5. That is the kind of rate that usually falls back, since turnovers swing a lot in small samples. TXST at 1.67 is close to its 1.23 from last season. A high-scoring UIW team that also coughs it up makes for a volatile road spot, where a couple of short fields can flip a game.

MISMATCH

• TXST: 1.67 turnovers a game to UIW's 3.67

  1.67 VS 3.67

  UIW has turned it over 3.67 times a game through 3 games, more than double the 1.5 it averaged last season. Texas State is at 1.67, a bit above its 1.23 a year ago. Turnover rates swing hard in three games, so UIW's number is likely to come down. Still a road team giving the ball away that often hands Texas State short fields, and UIW has to play clean, conservative football to stay in it.

COVERAGE

• UIW: 194.3 passing yards allowed per game to TXST's 367

  172.7 YPG

  UIW is at 194.3 passing yards allowed per game over 3 games; TXST is at 367 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 25.

• UIW: 26.7% third downs allowed to TXST's 53.3%

  26.7 PP

  UIW is at 26.7% third downs allowed over 3 games; TXST is at 53.3% over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 25.

SITUATIONAL

• UIW: 294 team passing yards per game to TXST's 217

  77 YPG

  UIW is at 294 team passing yards per game over 3 games; TXST is at 217 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 25. Last season UIW was at 245.7 over 12 games and TXST at 250.9 over 13 games.