Central Arkansas Bears at Florida State Seminoles
O/U 62.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Central Arkansas Bears +46.5 -105
- Published odds
- -105
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 7-34
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 16 moves| Market | Opened Sep 23 11:04 AM | Close Sep 26 2:48 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Florida State Seminoles -42.5 (-110) | Florida State Seminoles -45.5 (-108) | +3 |
| TOTAL | 59.5 (-110) | 62.5 (-118) | +3 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 23 11:04 AM | Florida State Seminoles -42.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 23 12:04 PM | Florida State Seminoles -44.5 (-105) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 23 4:06 PM | Florida State Seminoles -44.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 24 12:52 PM | Florida State Seminoles -45.5 (-110) | 61.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 25 8:01 AM | Florida State Seminoles -45.5 (-110) | 62.5 (-120) | — |
| Sep 25 2:01 PM | Florida State Seminoles -46.5 (-105) | 63.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 25 2:32 PM | Florida State Seminoles -45.5 (-115) | 63.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 25 3:02 PM | Florida State Seminoles -45.5 (-110) | 63.5 (-105) | — |
| Sep 25 3:33 PM | Florida State Seminoles -45.5 (-115) | 63.5 (-105) | — |
| Sep 26 8:00 AM | Florida State Seminoles -46.5 (-105) | 62.5 (-115) | — |
| Sep 26 9:43 AM | Florida State Seminoles -46.5 (-110) | 62.5 (-115) | — |
| Sep 26 10:34 AM | Florida State Seminoles -46.5 (-105) | 62.5 (-115) | — |
| Sep 26 10:44 AM | Florida State Seminoles -45.5 (-112) | 62.5 (-115) | — |
| Sep 26 11:34 AM | Florida State Seminoles -46.5 (-105) | 62.5 (-115) | — |
| Sep 26 1:27 PM | Florida State Seminoles -46.5 (-105) | 63.5 (-105) | — |
| Sep 26 2:07 PM | Florida State Seminoles -45.5 (-115) | 62.5 (-118) | — |
| CLOSESep 26 2:48 PM | Florida State Seminoles -45.5 (-108) | 62.5 (-118) | — |
The read
Family Weekend at Doak Campbell, a 3 p.m. kickoff, and Mike Norvell welcoming the program he once played receiver for while his own seat keeps getting warmer.
This number sits right on top of the average Power Four beating of an FCS team this year. Power Four schools are 47-0 against FCS opponents with an average score of 53.5 to 7.8. Laying 46.5 means believing Florida State is at least an average Power Four blowout machine, and nothing in its three games says so. The Seminoles rank 53rd in SP+, with the defense 60th. The offense lives on chunk plays: 2nd nationally in explosiveness and 103rd in success rate, so drives either hit big or stall. Its best output this season is 36 points. The one game against a non Power Four opponent was a 34-17 win over New Mexico State.
The defense is the bigger reason. It ranks 124th in success rate allowed and 128th in explosiveness allowed. It gave up 585 yards to SMU and 567 to Alabama, and it let a 21-6 lead against the Tide turn into nine straight scoring possessions. Norvell spent this week asking for better alignment and communication in the secondary. Central Arkansas brings the kind of offense that tests exactly that: a run-first attack built to set up deep shots. Donovyn Omolo leads the team with 360 rushing yards, and Tyrell Pollard averages about 20 yards a catch. A couple of busted coverages is all the Bears need to make this margin very hard to reach.
Then there is the second half. Norvell said he wants to "play multiple guys," and the backup quarterback battle between Malachi Marshall and Kevin Sperry is expected to finally see live snaps. A lead that has to keep growing into the fourth quarter runs straight into the snaps set aside for depth.
The risk on this side is real. Omolo threw for 98 yards with two interceptions at SEMO, and the Bears scored 9 and 14 in their two losses. Their kicking game gave up a blocked punt against West Florida and a 99-yard kickoff return touchdown at SEMO, so Florida State can score without its offense taking a snap. Ousmane Kromah is running at 5.9 yards a carry against the 6th-ranked schedule in the country. This is a measured position for those reasons.
The market walked this from 43.5 to 46.5 and the total from 58.5 to 63.5. That asks a team with a bottom-tier defense to produce something it has not approached all season. I'll take the points.
Injuries noted
Florida State Seminoles: Samuel Singleton Jr. (out) — Running back suffered a right knee injury (catch-and-run play) vs. Alabama on Sept. 19, 2026; head coach Mike Norvell said Sept. 21 he will miss 'an extended period of time,' hopeful for a return within the season. Confirmed still out/injured in a September 25, 2026 game preview ahead of the Central Arkansas matchup.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Donovyn Omolo is CARK's confirmed starter
6.71 Y/ADonovyn Omolo is CARK's confirmed starting quarterback. Sophomore QB Donovyn Omolo is Central Arkansas's starter and leading rusher this season (671 passing yards, 6 TD, 4 INT; 360 rushing yards, 2 TD through 4 games) per a September 25, 2026 game preview. 2026 line: 671 passing yards, 64.0% completions, 6.71 yards per attempt, 6-4 TD-INT over 4 games.
Ashton Daniels is FSU's confirmed starter
9.03 Y/AAshton Daniels is FSU's confirmed starting quarterback. Senior QB Ashton Daniels remains Florida State's starter; per a September 23, 2026 report he is the entrenched starter while Malachi Marshall and Kevin Sperry compete as co-backups for the QB2 role, with Marshall currently taking second-team reps. A September 26, 2026 gameday preview also confirms Daniels as starter for this matchup. 2026 line: 704 passing yards, 57.7% completions, 9.03 yards per attempt, 4-4 TD-INT over 3 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
CARK @ FSU carries a 63.5 market total
63.5The 63.5 total is 9 points above the 54.5 median across 41 games, so the market sees plenty of possessions and quick scores. That expectation leans on one side scoring often and the other adding enough to keep pace. It cracks if the game gets lopsided early and the leader slows everything down. Second half pace is where this number lives or dies.
MISMATCH
CARK: 238.3 rush yards a game to FSU's 170
238.3 VS 170Central Arkansas is running for 238.3 yards a game over 4 games, a big jump from 150.7 last season. Florida State sits at 170 over 3 games after 218.7 last year. Those early numbers likely reflect who each team has played, and last season's figures suggest both will drift back. In Tallahassee, Florida State's run game should look closer to last year than to this three-game stretch.
COVERAGE
CARK: 213.3 passing yards allowed per game to FSU's 340.7
127.4 YPGCentral Arkansas has allowed 213.3 passing yards a game over 4 games, while Florida State has given up 340.7 over 3. Florida State's pass defense has been getting beaten through the air, a strange number for a program at that level. An FCS offense is unlikely to exploit it the way bigger opponents might, so this matchup may not tell you much about whether that 340.7 is real.
REPLACEMENT
Samuel Singleton Jr. (RB) is out for FSU
OUTRunning back suffered a right knee injury (catch-and-run play) vs. Alabama on Sept. 19, 2026; head coach Mike Norvell said Sept. 21 he will miss 'an extended period of time,' hopeful for a return within the season. Confirmed still out/injured in a September 25, 2026 game preview ahead of the Central Arkansas matchup. FSU Preview: Florida State versus Central Arkansas (2026-09-25)
SITUATIONAL
FSU: 234.7 team passing yards per game to CARK's 168.8
65.9 YPGFlorida State is throwing for 234.7 yards a game through three games, Central Arkansas for 168.8 through four. Central Arkansas was at 222.1 last season, so its drop is the bigger surprise, while Florida State is a bit under its 253.4. Both should drift back up. Florida State at home against a passing game that has stalled has the edge in how this one gets played.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 26, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betrivers, draftkings, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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