Arizona Wildcats at Washington State Cougars

TRENCHES

• ARIZ: 75.7 rushing yards allowed per game to WSU's 178

  102.3 YPG

  Arizona allows 75.7 rushing yards a game through 3 games, and Washington State allows 178. Arizona's run defense has held up so far, while Washington State has been leaky on the ground. Three games is a short sample, but the direction favors Arizona being able to lean on the run in Pullman more than the reverse.

• WSU: 172.3 rushing yards per game to ARIZ's 129

  43.3 YPG

  ARIZ is at 129 rushing yards per game over 3 games; WSU is at 172.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 25. Last season ARIZ was at 152.4 over 13 games and WSU at 128.2 over 13 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

• ARIZ: 31.3 points per game to WSU's 21.7

  9.7 PPG

  Arizona is scoring 31.3 a game and Washington State 21.7, and both match last season almost exactly, 31.5 and 22.5. That consistency across two seasons makes this gap believable. Arizona on the road still brings the better offense, and the question for this game is whether Washington State's defense at home can keep it closer than the scoring gap suggests.

• ARIZ @ WSU carries a 48.5 market total

  48.5

  A 48.5 total sits 6 points below the 54.5 median across 41 games, so the market expects a somewhat slower game than the average on this slate. Points likely come through sustained drives more than big plays. The gap is small enough that a couple of explosive scores or a turnover can flip it. Watch whether drives end in touchdowns or field goals.

MISMATCH

• ARIZ: 300.3 pass yards a game to WSU's 134.3

  300.3 VS 134.3

  Arizona is throwing for 300.3 yards a game, up from 255.2 last season, so the growth is real but modest. Washington State is at 134.3 through three games, well off its 210.5 last season. Arizona's number looks sturdier than Washington State's dip, which could climb back. At home, Washington State needs to stay on schedule and limit how many possessions Arizona gets.

SITUATIONAL

• ARIZ: 300.3 team passing yards per game to WSU's 134.3

  166 YPG

  Arizona is throwing for 300.3 a game over three games, up from 255.2 last season, while Washington State has fallen to 134.3 from 210.5. The Arizona number looks like a continuation of who they were. WSU's drop is sharper and may partly reflect early opponents. Expect Arizona to control the style through the air in this road spot.

• ARIZ: 56.8% third-down conversion rate to WSU's 26.7%

  30.1 PP

  Arizona is converting 56.8% on third down over three games, 41% last season, while WSU is at 26.7%, 38.1% last season. Both are likely to drift back toward last year. For this game, Arizona sustaining drives and WSU going three-and-out would tilt time of possession toward the road team.