Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana Hoosiers
O/U 38.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +44.5 -105
- Published odds
- -105
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 0-38
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 60 moves| Market | Opened Sep 14 11:02 AM | Close Sep 19 3:48 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-108) | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | Price |
| TOTAL | 60.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-108) | −1 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 14 11:02 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 15 9:31 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-120) | — |
| Sep 15 1:01 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44 (-110) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 15 2:01 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 16 10:31 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44 (-118) | 61.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 16 1:31 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 61.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 16 2:31 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 17 11:01 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 17 11:31 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 17 12:02 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 17 12:32 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 17 2:02 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 17 3:02 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 17 3:32 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 17 4:30 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 17 4:41 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 17 8:01 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 18 12:31 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 18 5:01 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 18 7:30 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 11:31 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 18 12:32 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 18 1:33 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 18 2:03 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 18 2:33 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 3:03 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-118) | — |
| Sep 18 3:33 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 4:04 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-118) | — |
| Sep 18 4:30 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 4:50 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 18 5:10 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 18 5:20 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-118) | — |
| Sep 18 5:51 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 8:05 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-118) | — |
| Sep 18 9:02 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-108) | — |
| Sep 18 10:02 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-118) | — |
| Sep 18 10:32 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 18 11:02 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 18 11:32 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 19 8:00 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 19 8:30 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 19 8:40 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 19 9:21 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 61.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 19 9:31 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 19 11:03 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 19 11:40 AM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 19 12:01 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 19 12:24 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 19 12:28 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 19 12:48 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 19 12:56 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 19 1:00 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 19 1:08 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-112) | — |
| Sep 19 1:15 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 19 2:31 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 19 2:45 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-112) | 60.5 (-115) | — |
| Sep 19 3:01 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 19 3:02 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | — |
| Sep 19 3:39 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | — |
| Sep 19 3:45 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | — |
| CLOSESep 19 3:48 PM | Indiana Hoosiers -44.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-108) | — |
The read
Indiana closes its nonconference schedule at Memorial Stadium, while Western Kentucky arrives for its third consecutive road game still seeking its first win.
I’m taking the points because the opponent-adjusted assessment supports a substantial talent gap without making this spread an automatic extension of it. The SP+ rating difference is 38.7 points, and the FPI difference is approximately 39.2. Those are neutral-field comparisons, so Indiana’s home setting matters, but they provide a useful counterweight to the opening scores. WKU has faced the second-ranked schedule in difficulty; Indiana’s ranks 106th.
The football case for WKU starts with Brock Glenn giving the offense another way to extend possessions. He rushed for 70 yards and two touchdowns at Georgia, and Tyson Helton says both Glenn and Rodney Tisdale Jr. will probably play. I don’t need that arrangement to transform the offense. My judgment is that Glenn’s running gives WKU a credible route to enough productive possessions to matter against this number. Indiana has limited opponents’ successful plays, but its defensive explosiveness allowed ranks 130th—a vulnerability if WKU can get past the initial resistance.
The danger is substantial: Indiana can sustain scoring on the ground. WKU has allowed 278.5 rushing yards per game, and Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. each surpassed 100 against Howard. Josh Hoover’s eight touchdown passes and no interceptions add another scoring route. WKU’s defensive problems also showed up against Nevada, so schedule strength cannot explain them away.
What keeps me on the underdog is the requirement for Indiana to maintain an enormous separation through the finish. WKU scored 14 second-half points at Georgia; Indiana’s second half against Howard finished 14–0 after a 41–0 halftime lead. Neither sequence guarantees today’s pattern, and I’m not assuming a particular substitution plan. They illustrate why continued WKU scoring matters even if Indiana controls the afternoon. The adjusted ratings and Glenn’s additional rushing threat give me enough reason to take +44.5, with modest confidence given WKU’s defense.
Injuries noted
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: K.D. Hutchinson (questionable) — Wide receiver; the September 12 injury entry lists an undisclosed condition and uncertain availability against Indiana.
Indiana Hoosiers: Khobie Martin (out) — Running back; September 18 game-week coverage reported Martin out, with Curt Cignetti previously targeting approximately midseason for his return.; Jamari Sharpe (questionable) — Cornerback; Cignetti called him day-to-day on September 14 and said he was optimistic Sharpe would be available.; A.J. Harris (questionable) — Defensive back; Cignetti listed him as day-to-day on September 14.; Blake Smythe (questionable) — Defensive lineman; Cignetti called him day-to-day and expressed optimism about his availability.; Nico Radicic (questionable) — Kicker; the September 12 injury entry lists a back injury and uncertain availability against Western Kentucky.; Nick Marsh (questionable) — Wide receiver; the September 12 injury entry lists an undisclosed condition and uncertain availability against Western Kentucky.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Josh Hoover is IU's confirmed starter
13.93 Y/AJosh Hoover is IU's confirmed starting quarterback. Indiana's official game-week notebook identifies Hoover as its starting quarterback; he remained the first-team quarterback entering the Western Kentucky game. 2026 line: 376 passing yards, 70.4% completions, 13.93 yards per attempt, 8-0 TD-INT over 2 games.
TRENCHES
IU's front holds runners to 196 fewer yards per game
196 YPGWKU is at 278.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; IU is at 82.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
IU is +80.5 rush yards per game
80.5 YPGWKU is at 137 rushing yards per game over 2 games; IU is at 217.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
PACE & SCRIPT
IU's defense gives up 51.5 fewer points per game
51.5 PPGWKU is at 59.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; IU is at 8 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
IU is scoring +36.5 points per game
36.5 PPGWKU is at 17 points per game over 2 games; IU is at 53.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
WKU @ IU carries a 38.5 market total
38.5The current draftkings total is 38.5, 17 points below the 55.5 median across 45 games with posted totals on this slate.
TURNOVERS
IU commits 2.5 fewer turnovers per game
2.5 TOWKU is at 3 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; IU is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
MISMATCH
IU's defense against WKU's — IU allows 8 a game, WKU 59.5
8 VS 59.5The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — WKU 59.5, IU 8, over 2 and 2 game samples.
COVERAGE
IU allows a third-down conversion rate 27 percentage points lower
27 PPWKU is at 54.5% third downs allowed over 2 games; IU is at 27.6% over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
IU's secondary gives up 81.5 fewer passing yards per game
81.5 YPGWKU is at 211 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; IU is at 129.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
REPLACEMENT
Khobie Martin (RB) is out for IU
OUTRunning back; September 18 game-week coverage reported Martin out, with Curt Cignetti previously targeting approximately midseason for his return. 3 things to watch for Indiana football vs Western Kentucky (2026-09-18)
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betmgm, fanatics, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKJOSH HOOVERPASSING TOUCHDOWNS UNDER 3.5
I’m taking under 3.5 passing touchdowns. Hoover’s eight touchdown passes through two games make the over tempting, but four is still a demanding number in a matchup Indiana should be able to control on the ground. WKU has allowed 278.5 rushing yards per game, giving the Hoosiers little reason to make Hoover their only finishing option near the goal line.
The likely game script also works against his full-game passing volume. Indiana can build separation early, then lean on Lee Beebe Jr. and Turbo Richard or reduce Hoover’s workload. He can play efficiently and still finish with two or three touchdown passes. The risk is obvious because Indiana’s receivers have already converted limited opportunities into scores, but at -132 I prefer the under given the rushing matchup and the possibility that a lopsided second half removes passing attempts.
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