Tulane Green Wave at Kansas State Wildcats
O/U 49.5 · SPREAD Kansas State Wildcats -11.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 20-31
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 35 moves| Market | Opened Sep 13 3:46 PM | Close Sep 19 11:50 AM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Kansas State Wildcats -19.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -20 (-110) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 49.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Kansas State Wildcats -1600 | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 | +200 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 13 3:46 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -19.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | Kansas State Wildcats -1600 · Tulane Green Wave +1000 |
| Sep 13 5:47 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -19.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 13 7:46 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | Kansas State Wildcats -1600 · Tulane Green Wave +1050 |
| Sep 13 8:46 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | Kansas State Wildcats -1600 · Tulane Green Wave +1000 |
| Sep 14 9:00 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -19.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 14 11:02 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20 (-108) | 49.5 (-108) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +900 |
| Sep 14 1:03 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 15 9:31 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20 (-110) | 49.5 (-108) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +900 |
| Sep 15 12:01 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 15 1:01 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 15 10:02 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 16 7:01 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +900 |
| Sep 16 1:31 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 16 2:31 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 17 12:02 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 17 11:31 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 18 5:01 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-120) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 18 10:01 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-112) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +900 |
| Sep 18 11:01 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-120) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 18 1:02 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-112) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +900 |
| Sep 18 1:33 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-112) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 18 3:03 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-120) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +900 |
| Sep 18 4:04 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-112) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 18 4:30 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 18 6:53 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +900 |
| Sep 18 7:04 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 18 7:44 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +900 |
| Sep 18 8:32 PM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 19 9:52 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 19 10:02 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 19 10:32 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +900 |
| Sep 19 11:15 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +900 |
| Sep 19 11:23 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| Sep 19 11:30 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +900 |
| Sep 19 11:40 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20.5 (-108) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +950 |
| CLOSESep 19 11:50 AM | Kansas State Wildcats -20 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | Kansas State Wildcats -1400 · Tulane Green Wave +900 |
The read
Kansas State closes its nonconference schedule at home, while Tulane arrives after a comeback win over South Alabama. Both programs are finding their footing under new head coaches.
I’m laying the points because the running-game matchup gives Kansas State a credible way to sustain offense and create separation. The Wildcats have been stopped at or behind the line on 8.4% of their carries, while Tulane has allowed 432 rushing yards across its opening two games. Rodney Fields Jr. and Avery Johnson give Kansas State ways to attack that weakness. Johnson’s 78 rushing yards against Washington State illustrate the additional problem Tulane must account for.
The matchup gets harder for Tulane when possession changes. Its offense has been stuffed on 23.1% of its carries; Kansas State’s defense has stopped 27.1% of opposing carries at or behind the line. Tulane’s passing-down success rate is just 15.4%. My expectation is that Kansas State can interrupt enough early-down plays to make sustaining drives difficult. That combination—an offense capable of staying on schedule and a defense capable of ending possessions—is why I’m willing to lay this spread.
Nicholls helped inflate Kansas State’s opening numbers. The Washington State performance gives me more confidence: a 487–166 yardage advantage, with the defense allowing no offensive touchdown. Tulane’s latest win required a late touchdown after allowing South Alabama to convert 10 of 16 third downs. Those games support the matchup concern that Kansas State can string possessions together while Tulane struggles to get off the field.
Tulane’s explosive ability is the real obstacle. Jaylin Lucas’s 80-yard touchdown against South Alabama showed how quickly it can score, and Kadin Semonza demonstrated composure on the winning drive. Johnson’s two interceptions against Washington State also matter when laying this many points. I’m backing Kansas State because I expect its advantages in sustaining offense and disrupting Tulane’s drives to outweigh those threats. Tulane has demonstrated the ability to strike quickly; I trust Kansas State more to keep creating scoring chances throughout the game.
Injuries noted
Tulane Green Wave: Jamauri McClure (questionable) — Foot injury; availability for Kansas State was undetermined in the Sep. 12 report.; Chris Rodgers (game-time decision) — Will Hall said Tulane was awaiting a final diagnosis and second opinion.; Ty Thompson (game-time decision) — Hall said the program was still gathering information on the injury and its season implications.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Kadin Semonza is TULN's confirmed starter
8.19 Y/AKadin Semonza is TULN's confirmed starting quarterback. Current Week 3 coverage says Tulane switched to Semonza after the opener and that he will start against Kansas State. 2026 line: 352 passing yards, 58.1% completions, 8.19 yards per attempt, 1-0 TD-INT over 2 games.
Avery Johnson is KSU's confirmed starter
7.11 Y/AAvery Johnson is KSU's confirmed starting quarterback. Kansas State's official game notes identify Johnson as its third-year starter with 28 consecutive starts entering the Tulane game. 2026 line: 391 passing yards, 67.3% completions, 7.11 yards per attempt, 6-2 TD-INT over 2 games.
TRENCHES
KSU is +170.5 rush yards per game
170.5 YPGKSU has run for 303.5 yards per game through two 2026 games, 170.5 more than Tulane's 133. Both numbers are each team's own offensive output, so they describe two rushing identities rather than how either held up against the other's front. Two games is a thin base.
KSU's front holds runners to 119.5 fewer yards per game
119.5 YPGKSU has allowed 96.5 rushing yards per game through two 2026 games, 119.5 fewer than TULN's 216. The supplied results do not identify the offences faced or their rushing approaches, limiting any schedule-adjusted read.
PACE & SCRIPT
KSU is scoring +37 points per game
37 PPGThrough 2026-09-18, KSU is scoring 52.5 PPG over 2 games while TULN is at 15.5. The 37-PPG gap frames a sharply different early scoring profile for TULN @ KSU, with only two games behind each figure.
KSU holds the ball 10:52 longer per game
10:52 TOPThrough 2026-09-18, KSU has averaged 33:44 of possession over 2 games, compared with TULN’s 22:53. The 10:52 per-game gap gives KSU the stronger early possession profile in TULN @ KSU; both averages cover two games.
KSU's defense gives up 15.5 fewer points per game
15.5 PPGTULN is at 20.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; KSU is at 5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
TURNOVERS
TULN commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
1 TOTULN is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; KSU is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
MISMATCH
KSU's ground game against TULN's — 303.5 rush yards a game to 133
303.5 VS 133KSU has run for 303.5 yards a game through two, against 133 a game for TULN over its own two. Rush ypg is the widest gap on this tape, but both figures are offensive output — neither one measures how either defense has handled the run.
COVERAGE
KSU's secondary gives up 166 fewer passing yards per game
166 YPGKSU has allowed 47.5 passing yards per game through two games in 2026, against 213.5 for TULN, a 166 YPG gap. Both are raw opponent box totals through Sept 18, so how much of KSU's figure reflects opponent pass volume rather than coverage isn't in the numbers.
KSU allows a third-down conversion rate 31.5 percentage points lower
31.5 PPOn third down KSU has allowed a 21.4% conversion rate over two games; TULN sits at 52.9%, a 31.5-point gap. The underlying attempt counts aren't in the data, so the two rates rest on an unknown number of snaps each.
SITUATIONAL
KSU moves the chains 17.5 more times per game
17.5 FDKSU is moving the chains 29 times per game over two 2026 games; Tulane is at 11.5, a 17.5 first-down gap. That is a volume difference in drives sustained — measured on each team's own two games, not head to head.
KSU's third-down conversion rate is 35.8 percentage points higher
35.8 PPKSU has converted 70.4% of third downs over two 2026 games to Tulane's 34.6%, a 35.8-point separation in staying on the field. Third-down rate across just two games rests on a small attempt count and can move sharply.
KSU gives away 49.5 fewer penalty yards per game
49.5 YDSTULN is at 67 penalty yards per game over 2 games; KSU is at 17.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKRODNEY FIELDS JR.RUSHING YARDS OVER 90.5
I’m backing Fields to clear this through volume and matchup. He has produced 206 rushing yards on 27 carries across Kansas State’s first two games, while Tulane has already allowed 432 rushing yards. The Wildcats’ low stuff rate gives him a favorable path to reach the second level consistently.
Laying 20.5 also reflects the game script I expect. If Kansas State establishes control, Fields should remain central to an offense that can lean on the run deep into the second half. Avery Johnson and Joe Jackson create some workload competition, but they also force Tulane to defend multiple rushing threats instead of keying exclusively on Fields. I make his combination of efficiency, likely opportunity and opponent vulnerability strong enough to play over 90.5 at -115.
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