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NCAAF · Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM

Troy Trojans at Missouri Tigers

O/U 44.5 · SPREAD Missouri Tigers -9.5

GARY'S PICK
Troy +26.5
NCAAF@ Missouri· -105

Troy
+26.5

-105 · CASHED · TROY 17 · MIZ 27

Missouri

The pick & result

Published pick
Troy Trojans +26.5 -105
Published odds
-105
Result
Won
Final score
17-27

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 43 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 13 3:46 PM
Close
Sep 19 6:30 PM
Move
SPREADMissouri Tigers -27.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -27 (-110)−½
TOTAL50.5 (-108)49.5 (-110)−1
MONEYLINEMissouri Tigers -5000Missouri Tigers -5000Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 13 3:46 PMMissouri Tigers -27.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +2200
Sep 13 6:46 PMMissouri Tigers -27.5 (-108)49.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +2000
Sep 13 8:46 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +2000
Sep 14 8:01 AMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +2000
Sep 14 10:01 AMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +2000
Sep 14 11:02 AMMissouri Tigers -27 (-108)49.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +2000
Sep 14 12:03 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +2000
Sep 14 1:03 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-108)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 14 3:03 PMMissouri Tigers -26.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1850
Sep 15 6:00 AMMissouri Tigers -26.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 15 12:01 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-105)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 15 7:01 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-108)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 15 10:02 PMMissouri Tigers -26.5 (-110)49.5 (-115)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 15 11:02 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-108)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 16 10:31 AMMissouri Tigers -26.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 16 12:31 PMMissouri Tigers -26.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 16 1:31 PMMissouri Tigers -26.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1850
Sep 16 2:31 PMMissouri Tigers -26.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 16 9:08 PMMissouri Tigers -26.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1850
Sep 16 10:38 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1850
Sep 16 11:38 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 17 7:00 AMMissouri Tigers -27 (-115)50.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 17 7:30 AMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 17 10:31 AMMissouri Tigers -27.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 17 12:32 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 17 1:02 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +2000
Sep 17 2:02 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-118)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 17 5:11 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 17 5:21 PMMissouri Tigers -27.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 17 5:51 PMMissouri Tigers -27.5 (-108)50.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1850
Sep 17 6:01 PMMissouri Tigers -27.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 18 5:01 AMMissouri Tigers -27.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 18 1:33 PMMissouri Tigers -27.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +2000
Sep 18 2:33 PMMissouri Tigers -27.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 19 8:00 AMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 19 8:40 AMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)50.5 (-108)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1850
Sep 19 11:40 AMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)50.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 19 12:37 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +2000
Sep 19 1:14 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 19 3:52 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 19 5:00 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1850
Sep 19 5:22 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900
Sep 19 6:13 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-112)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1850
CLOSESep 19 6:30 PMMissouri Tigers -27 (-110)49.5 (-110)Missouri Tigers -5000 · Troy Trojans +1900

The read

Missouri celebrates Memorial Stadium’s centennial tonight, while Troy takes its rebuilt team on the road for the first time this season. Both arrive unbeaten, but this is a different examination for the visitors.

I’m taking Troy with the points because its best offensive weapon matches a meaningful Missouri vulnerability. Troy ranks sixth in explosiveness on successful plays; Missouri ranks 135th in explosiveness allowed. That does not mean Troy will move the ball consistently. It means TK Keyes and Jaheim Merriweather offer a credible way to produce scoring chances even when sustained drives are difficult. At this spread, I give that matchup considerable weight.

Troy also has a defensive route to interrupting Missouri’s scoring. Its seven sacks and 21 tackles for loss through two games show actual disruption, with Donnie Smith and Ty Clemons contributing. Missouri’s Jamal Roberts has averaged 4.2 yards per carry, so I’m not assuming the favorite can dictate every possession on the ground. My judgment is that Troy can create enough unsuccessful Missouri possessions to make sustained separation harder.

The strongest objection is Austin Simmons. He has completed 75.0% of his passes with seven touchdowns and no interceptions, and Donovan Olugbode and Cayden Lee have supplied substantial receiving production. Troy’s tackling problems and penalties could turn that passing advantage into a runaway. Its early defensive numbers also came against a schedule ranked 134th, so they deserve restraint.

Still, the opponent-adjusted ratings support taking Troy’s resistance seriously at this number. The SP+ rating gap is 22.2 points before accounting for this venue; it is context, not a predicted margin. Missouri’s defensive consistency and Goose Crowder’s 51.0% completion rate make Troy’s offense difficult to trust possession after possession. But the combination of disruptive defense and demonstrated scoring bursts gives me enough reason to take +26.5. This is a modest-confidence spread bet, with Missouri’s passing game the principal risk.

Injuries noted

Troy Trojans: Howard Kinchen (probable) — Wide receiver; an undisclosed fall-camp issue kept him out of the first two games, but attributed reporting says he is expected to return at Missouri.

Missouri Tigers: Malae Fonoti (out for season) — Running back; the September 18 Week 3 report lists him out for the season with a knee injury.; Ahmad Hardy (out) — All-American running back; Missouri's opponent preview says he will miss a third consecutive game, while the Week 3 report lists a leg injury and RotoWire reports no return timetable.; Jabari Brady (questionable) — Wide receiver; listed questionable with a knee injury and has not played this season.; Gavin Hoffman (questionable) — Tight end; listed questionable without a disclosed injury designation.; Cayden Green (questionable) — Starting left tackle; the current Week 3 snapshot lists him questionable, although he returned and played against Kansas the previous week.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Goose Crowder is TROY's confirmed starter

    7.18 Y/A

    Goose Crowder is TROY's confirmed starting quarterback. Current matchup reporting identifies Crowder as Troy's quarterback, and Troy's coach discussed Crowder's protection and passing accuracy while previewing Missouri. 2026 line: 366 passing yards, 51.0% completions, 7.18 yards per attempt, 4-0 TD-INT over 2 games.

  • Austin Simmons is MIZ's confirmed starter

    11.33 Y/A

    Austin Simmons is MIZ's confirmed starting quarterback. Missouri's official game preview identifies Simmons as its starting quarterback, and current reporting calls him the new starter. 2026 line: 544 passing yards, 75.0% completions, 11.33 yards per attempt, 7-0 TD-INT over 2 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • MIZ is scoring +17 points per game

    17 PPG

    TROY is at 29 points per game over 2 games; MIZ is at 46 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

TURNOVERS

  • TROY commits 1 fewer turnovers per game

    1 TO

    TROY is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; MIZ is at 1 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

MISMATCH

  • MIZ's passing attack against TROY's — 324.5 pass yards a game to 183

    324.5 VS 183

    The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pass ypg — TROY 183, MIZ 324.5, over 2 and 2 game samples.

COVERAGE

  • MIZ's secondary gives up 78.5 fewer passing yards per game

    78.5 YPG

    TROY is at 220 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; MIZ is at 141.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.

  • MIZ allows a third-down conversion rate 13.2 percentage points lower

    13.2 PP

    TROY is at 34.6% third downs allowed over 2 games; MIZ is at 21.4% over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.

REPLACEMENT

  • Malae Fonoti (RB) is out for the season for MIZ

    OUT FOR SEASON

    Running back; the September 18 Week 3 report lists him out for the season with a knee injury. College Football Injury Report: Most Injured Teams, Week 3 (2026-09-18)

  • Ahmad Hardy (RB) is out for MIZ

    OUT

    All-American running back; Missouri's opponent preview says he will miss a third consecutive game, while the Week 3 report lists a leg injury and RotoWire reports no return timetable. Troy Travels to No. 20 Missouri (2026-09-17) College Football Injury Report: Most Injured Teams, Week 3 (2026-09-18) Missouri News, Schedule, and Roster (2026-09-17)

SITUATIONAL

  • MIZ's passing game is +141.5 yards per game

    141.5 YPG

    TROY is at 183 team passing yards per game over 2 games; MIZ is at 324.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betmgm, fanatics, betrivers, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

1
  • GARY'S PICK
    CAYDEN LEERECEIVING YARDS OVER 67.5
    NCAAFMissouri· -115

    Cayden Lee
    Receiving Yards over 67.5

    -115 · LOST · ACTUAL 30

    Missouri

    I’m taking Cayden Lee over 67.5 receiving yards. Lee has produced 200 yards on 10 receptions through two games, demonstrating the downfield efficiency needed to clear this number without requiring heavy volume.

    Troy’s disruptive front can pressure Austin Simmons, but its tackling issues leave it vulnerable when Missouri gets the ball to its playmakers. Simmons has completed 75.0% of his passes without an interception, and Lee’s 20.0 yards per reception gives him multiple paths to the over on a relatively modest yardage line.

    The main concern is distribution. Donovan Olugbode has commanded more receptions and receiving yards, while a comfortable Missouri lead could reduce second-half passing volume. Still, Lee’s explosiveness makes 67.5 attainable even if the Tigers do not throw aggressively for four quarters.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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