SMU Mustangs at Louisville Cardinals
O/U 58.5 · SPREAD Louisville Cardinals -4.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- SMU Mustangs ML +100
- Published odds
- +100
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 31-41
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 62 moves| Market | Opened Sep 13 10:15 AM | Close Sep 19 3:29 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-112) | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-105) | +1½ |
| TOTAL | 59.5 (-108) | 57.5 (-110) | −2 |
| MONEYLINE | Louisville Cardinals -120 | Louisville Cardinals -145 | −25 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 13 10:15 AM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 13 10:45 AM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 13 12:46 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -125 · SMU Mustangs +105 |
| Sep 13 1:46 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2 (-112) | 60.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 13 3:46 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -125 · SMU Mustangs +105 |
| Sep 13 5:47 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -125 · SMU Mustangs +105 |
| Sep 13 6:46 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -125 · SMU Mustangs +105 |
| Sep 13 7:46 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2 (-108) | 59.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 14 8:01 AM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 14 12:03 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 14 1:03 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 14 4:33 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 14 8:34 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 15 3:01 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-102) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 15 4:01 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 15 5:01 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -125 · SMU Mustangs +105 |
| Sep 15 10:02 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 15 11:02 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 16 12:02 AM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 16 8:31 AM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-115) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 16 11:31 AM | Louisville Cardinals -2 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 16 1:31 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 16 2:31 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-115) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 16 8:07 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 16 8:37 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 16 10:08 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 17 11:01 AM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 17 12:32 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 17 1:32 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 17 2:02 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 17 3:02 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 17 3:32 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 17 4:30 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-118) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 17 4:41 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-112) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 17 5:11 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-115) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 17 5:21 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-115) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 17 6:21 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-112) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 18 7:00 AM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 18 7:30 AM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 18 1:33 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 18 4:04 PM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 18 5:20 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2 (-108) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 19 12:32 AM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-118) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 19 6:00 AM | Louisville Cardinals -2 (-108) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 19 8:40 AM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 19 10:42 AM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 19 10:53 AM | Louisville Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -120 · SMU Mustangs +100 |
| Sep 19 11:03 AM | — | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -130 · SMU Mustangs +105 |
| Sep 19 11:15 AM | Louisville Cardinals -2.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -125 · SMU Mustangs +105 |
| Sep 19 11:27 AM | Louisville Cardinals -2.5 (-112) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -125 · SMU Mustangs +105 |
| Sep 19 12:05 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -125 · SMU Mustangs +105 |
| Sep 19 12:24 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | — |
| Sep 19 12:37 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -125 · SMU Mustangs +105 |
| Sep 19 12:48 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -130 · SMU Mustangs +110 |
| Sep 19 2:08 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -135 · SMU Mustangs +110 |
| Sep 19 2:31 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -135 · SMU Mustangs +110 |
| Sep 19 2:32 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2.5 (-115) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -135 · SMU Mustangs +115 |
| Sep 19 2:39 PM | Louisville Cardinals -2.5 (-108) | 58.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -135 · SMU Mustangs +115 |
| Sep 19 3:01 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-108) | 58.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -145 · SMU Mustangs +120 |
| Sep 19 3:02 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-108) | 57.5 (-108) | Louisville Cardinals -145 · SMU Mustangs +120 |
| Sep 19 3:09 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-105) | 57.5 (-112) | Louisville Cardinals -145 · SMU Mustangs +120 |
| Sep 19 3:15 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-105) | 57.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -145 · SMU Mustangs +120 |
| CLOSESep 19 3:29 PM | Louisville Cardinals -3 (-105) | 57.5 (-110) | Louisville Cardinals -145 · SMU Mustangs +125 |
The read
A ranked ACC matchup comes to Louisville, with the Cardinals opening conference play and SMU looking to bring another road win home. Both offenses have shown they can make this an uncomfortable afternoon for the opposing defense.
I’m backing SMU to win because I trust its combination of passing production and defensive disruption more in this matchup. Kevin Jennings threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns at Florida State, so his case goes beyond overwhelming UC Davis. With Yannick Smith, Jalen Hale, Jalen Cooper and Randy Pittman Jr. contributing, Louisville has several receiving threats to manage. The Cardinals have recorded one sack through two games. That does not prove Jennings will have clean protection, but I like his chances of finding those receivers if Louisville cannot hurry him.
SMU has recorded five sacks and 14 tackles for loss over the same two-game sample. The matchup question is whether that disruption can force Lincoln Kienholz into difficult downs while keeping him contained. SMU has allowed a 32.8% offensive success rate compared with Louisville’s 37.3%. My judgment is that the Mustangs have the better chance of interrupting drives when these offenses start trading productive possessions.
Louisville has a serious counter. Kienholz produced 307 passing yards and 69 rushing yards against Ole Miss, and his ability to escape creates a different challenge from simply defending the initial throw. Lawayne McCoy and Jaleel Skinner give him productive options against an SMU defense that has been vulnerable to damaging successful plays. Louisville has also finished scoring opportunities better, while both Jennings interceptions came in the Florida State game. Those are the clearest ways this bet can lose.
Louisville’s harder early schedule tempers the raw defensive comparison. Still, both SP+ and FPI rate SMU higher overall, supporting the broader case without settling a game played in Louisville. I expect Jennings and his receiving options to create enough offense, and I trust SMU’s disruption to produce the more consequential stops. That is an outright-win read, so I’m taking the +100 moneyline instead of paying -108 for SMU +1.5.
Injuries noted
SMU Mustangs: EJ Kelly (probable) — RB; undisclosed injury, listed September 17 as likely to play against Louisville.; Miles Uter (questionable) — TE; undisclosed injury, listed September 12 with availability against Louisville undetermined.; Christian Rhodes (questionable) — RB; undisclosed injury, listed September 12 with availability against Louisville undetermined.; Link Rhodes (out) — RB; knee injury, listed August 26 as out for the remainder of the season.
Louisville Cardinals: Payton Cook (out) — WR; undisclosed injury, listed September 17.; Keyjuan Brown (questionable) — RB; undisclosed injury, listed September 12.; Anwar O'Neal (questionable) — OG; undisclosed injury, listed September 11.; Montavin Quisenberry (out) — WR; lower-body injury, listed August 14.; Kris Hughes (out) — WR; lower-body injury, listed August 11.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Kevin Jennings is SMU's confirmed starter
14.75 Y/AKevin Jennings is SMU's confirmed starting quarterback. SMU's official game preview identifies Jennings as its returning starter, says he is 21-7 as the Mustangs' starter and lists him among the 2026 captains; the Week 3 game notes list him first at quarterback. 2026 line: 767 passing yards, 76.9% completions, 14.75 yards per attempt, 8-2 TD-INT over 2 games.
Lincoln Kienholz is LOU's confirmed starter
12.78 Y/ALincoln Kienholz is LOU's confirmed starting quarterback. Louisville's Week 3 game notes list Kienholz first at quarterback, and the school's September 18 game preview identifies him as the current quarterback entering the SMU matchup. 2026 line: 639 passing yards, 68.0% completions, 12.78 yards per attempt, 4-0 TD-INT over 2 games.
TRENCHES
LOU is +87 rush yards per game
87 YPGSMU is at 124 rushing yards per game over 2 games; LOU is at 211 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
PACE & SCRIPT
SMU @ LOU carries a 72.5 market total
72.5SMU @ LOU's 72.5 DraftKings total is 17 points above the 55.5 median across 45 posted slate games, placing its aggregate scoring expectation above the slate norm. The supplied facts do not provide a matchup-specific test of that expectation.
SMU's defense gives up 10 fewer points per game
10 PPGSMU is at 17 points allowed per game over 2 games; LOU is at 27 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
TURNOVERS
LOU commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
2 TOSMU is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; LOU is at 0 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
MISMATCH
LOU's ball security against SMU's giveaways — 2 turnovers a game to LOU's 0
0 VS 2The widest gap on this matchup's tape: turnovers / g — SMU 2, LOU 0, over 2 and 2 game samples.
COVERAGE
SMU's secondary gives up 109 fewer passing yards per game
109 YPGSMU is at 148 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; LOU is at 257 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
SMU allows a third-down conversion rate 19 percentage points lower
19 PPSMU is at 14.3% third downs allowed over 2 games; LOU is at 33.3% over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
REPLACEMENT
Sam Dawson (DL) is out for LOU
OUTDefensive lineman listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16) Will Isaac Brown play in Louisville football's ACC game vs SMU? (2026-09-17)
Payton Cook (WR) is out for LOU
OUTWide receiver listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16) Will Isaac Brown play in Louisville football's ACC game vs SMU? (2026-09-17)
Cameron Gorin (OL) is out for LOU
OUTOffensive lineman listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16) Will Isaac Brown play in Louisville football's ACC game vs SMU? (2026-09-17)
Sam Secrest (OL) is out for LOU
OUTOffensive lineman listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16) Will Isaac Brown play in Louisville football's ACC game vs SMU? (2026-09-17)
Bryten Close (OT) is out for LOU
OUTOffensive tackle listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16) Will Isaac Brown play in Louisville football's ACC game vs SMU? (2026-09-17)
Max Merz (OL) is out for LOU
OUTOffensive lineman listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16) Will Isaac Brown play in Louisville football's ACC game vs SMU? (2026-09-17)
Jacob Baker (P) is out for LOU
OUTPunter listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16) Will Isaac Brown play in Louisville football's ACC game vs SMU? (2026-09-17)
Travis Egan (TE) is out for LOU
OUTTight end listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16) Will Isaac Brown play in Louisville football's ACC game vs SMU? (2026-09-17)
Abel Hoopii (OL) is out for SMU
OUTOffensive lineman listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16)
Kenneth Goodwin III (LB) is out for SMU
OUTLinebacker listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16)
Link Rhodes (RB) is out for SMU
OUTRunning back listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16)
Christian Rhodes (RB) is out for SMU
OUTRunning back listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16)
Deuce Gilbert (CB) is out for SMU
OUTCornerback listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16)
Caden Marshall (LB) is out for SMU
OUTLinebacker listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16)
Ahmaad Moses (S) is out for SMU
OUTSafety listed out on the initial ACC availability report. Tale of the Tape: No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville (2026-09-16)
SITUATIONAL
SMU gives away 35 fewer penalty yards per game
35 YDSSMU is at 51 penalty yards per game over 2 games; LOU is at 86 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
AFTER GARY
SMU +100 → +122
NOW +4.96PPFANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, fanatics, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKKEVIN JENNINGSPASSING YARDS OVER 288.5
I’m backing Jennings to clear 288.5 passing yards because SMU’s best route to winning runs through its passing game. He has thrown for 767 yards across two games, and the 430-yard performance at Florida State showed that the production was not limited to an overmatched UC Davis defense.
Louisville has recorded only one sack through two games, which matters against a quarterback completing 40 of 52 attempts. If Jennings has time, SMU can spread the targets among Yannick Smith, Jalen Cooper, Yamir Knight and Randy Pittman Jr. That depth gives him several ways to accumulate yards without requiring one receiver to dominate.
The line already accounts for Jennings’ strong start, and Louisville’s tougher early schedule makes its defensive numbers more respectable than they first appear. There is also some risk that SMU’s backfield finishes drives and limits the passing volume. Still, I expect a competitive game that keeps Jennings throwing into the fourth quarter, and I make 300-plus yards the more likely side of this number.
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