North Texas Mean Green at Texas State Bobcats
O/U 62.5 · SPREAD Texas State Bobcats -13.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- North Texas Mean Green +2.5 -102
- Published odds
- -102
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 35-49
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 47 moves| Market | Opened Sep 13 3:46 PM | Close Sep 19 11:50 AM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | Holds |
| TOTAL | 62.5 (-110) | 62.5 (-112) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Texas State Bobcats -140 | Texas State Bobcats -145 | −5 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 13 3:46 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 62.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -140 · North Texas Mean Green +115 |
| Sep 13 4:46 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-105) | 63.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 13 5:47 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 63.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 13 7:46 PM | Texas State Bobcats -2.5 (-115) | 63.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 13 8:46 PM | Texas State Bobcats -2.5 (-110) | 63.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -135 · North Texas Mean Green +110 |
| Sep 13 10:16 PM | Texas State Bobcats -2.5 (-108) | 63.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -135 · North Texas Mean Green +110 |
| Sep 13 11:16 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-102) | 63.5 (-105) | Texas State Bobcats -150 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 14 8:01 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-110) | 63.5 (-105) | Texas State Bobcats -160 · North Texas Mean Green +130 |
| Sep 14 9:00 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 63.5 (-105) | Texas State Bobcats -150 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 14 10:01 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 63.5 (-105) | Texas State Bobcats -155 · North Texas Mean Green +130 |
| Sep 14 11:02 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 63.5 (-105) | Texas State Bobcats -150 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 14 2:03 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-110) | 63.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 15 9:31 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 63.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 15 2:01 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 63.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -150 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 15 3:01 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 63.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -150 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 15 6:01 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 63.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 15 10:02 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 63.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -150 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 15 11:02 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 63.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 16 12:31 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 63.5 (-105) | Texas State Bobcats -150 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 16 1:31 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-105) | 63.5 (-105) | Texas State Bobcats -150 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 16 3:32 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-105) | 63.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -150 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 16 5:18 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-102) | 62.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -150 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 17 6:00 AM | Texas State Bobcats -2.5 (-120) | 62.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 17 10:31 AM | Texas State Bobcats -2.5 (-112) | 62.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 17 11:31 AM | Texas State Bobcats -2.5 (-112) | 62.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 17 12:02 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-102) | 62.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -150 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 17 2:02 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-105) | 62.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -150 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 17 3:32 PM | Texas State Bobcats -2.5 (-120) | 62.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 17 4:30 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-102) | 62.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 17 6:11 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-105) | 62.5 (-108) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 18 10:31 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-105) | 62.5 (-105) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 18 12:01 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 62.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -140 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 18 2:03 PM | Texas State Bobcats -2.5 (-110) | 62.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -140 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 18 6:33 PM | Texas State Bobcats -2.5 (-110) | 62.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 18 6:53 PM | Texas State Bobcats -2.5 (-118) | 62.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 18 8:32 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-105) | 62.5 (-120) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 18 11:02 PM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-102) | 62.5 (-120) | Texas State Bobcats -150 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 19 5:00 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-102) | 62.5 (-120) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 19 8:00 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-102) | 62.5 (-115) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 19 8:30 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 62.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 19 9:21 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 62.5 (-120) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +125 |
| Sep 19 9:31 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 62.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 19 11:00 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 63.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 19 11:15 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 62.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 19 11:27 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 63.5 (-110) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 19 11:30 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-102) | 62.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| Sep 19 11:40 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-105) | 62.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
| CLOSESep 19 11:50 AM | Texas State Bobcats -3 (-108) | 62.5 (-112) | Texas State Bobcats -145 · North Texas Mean Green +120 |
The read
It’s an early kickoff in San Marcos, with Texas State seeking its first win and North Texas coming off a convincing victory over UNLV. Both programs are still establishing themselves under changed coaching staffs.
I’m taking North Texas because its passing production and White’s complementary rushing give the underdog a credible offensive case. Tayven Jackson has completed 68.5% of his passes at 7.87 yards per attempt, with two touchdowns and one interception. Brad Jackson has completed 60.4% at 6.51 yards per attempt, with one touchdown and three interceptions. Those early results don’t settle the quarterback matchup, but I trust North Texas more to create offense through the air while protecting possessions.
Jahiem White strengthens that argument. Against UNLV, he rushed for 124 yards on 12 carries and added a receiving touchdown. His contributions in both phases give North Texas another way to threaten Texas State beyond asking its quarterback to carry the offense.
Texas State’s running game is the real danger to this ticket. The Bobcats rushed for 289 yards against UTSA, with Torrance Burgess Jr. and Davian Jackson both contributing substantially. I expect that ground game to test North Texas, and I’m not treating the UNLV result as proof that the Mean Green defense is fixed. Its four sacks and four takeaways in that game followed an opener with neither.
But Texas State’s offensive production has come with costly mistakes: five turnovers committed through two games. It also surrendered a 17–7 halftime lead against UTSA. My judgment is that North Texas has enough offensive answers to compete without needing another takeaway avalanche. The rushing threat on the other side keeps me on +2.5 at -102 rather than the outright-win ticket.
Injuries noted
Texas State Bobcats: Easton Webb (out for season) — Reserve quarterback listed out for the season with an elbow injury.; Zechariah Sample (probable) — The expected No. 3 receiver missed the first two games with an undisclosed injury, was called a game-time decision on September 15, and participated in pregame warmups September 19; the latest listing upgraded him to probable.; Beau Sparks (questionable) — Starting receiver missed the UTSA game, remained day-to-day during game week and was still listed questionable for North Texas.; Jacob Bonilla (questionable) — Kicker suffered a lower-body injury against UTSA and participated in pregame warmups September 19, but the latest status remained questionable.; Jordan Sample (questionable) — Linebacker was reported questionable with an undisclosed condition; the September 18 depth chart lists him third at middle linebacker.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Tayven Jackson is UNT's confirmed starter
7.87 Y/ATayven Jackson is UNT's confirmed starting quarterback. The September 18 depth chart lists Jackson first at quarterback, ahead of Chaston Ditta and Chris Jimerson Jr.; the current game preview describes Jackson as the quarterback in North Texas' rebuilt starting backfield. 2026 line: 425 passing yards, 68.5% completions, 7.87 yards per attempt, 2-1 TD-INT over 2 games.
Brad Jackson is TXST's confirmed starter
6.51 Y/ABrad Jackson is TXST's confirmed starting quarterback. The September 18 depth chart lists Jackson first at quarterback; this week's preview identifies him as a 2026 captain and returning starter. 2026 line: 345 passing yards, 60.4% completions, 6.51 yards per attempt, 1-3 TD-INT over 2 games.
TRENCHES
TXST is +57.5 rush yards per game
57.5 YPGUNT is at 167.5 rushing yards per game over 2 games; TXST is at 225 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
PACE & SCRIPT
UNT @ TXST carries a 89.5 market total
89.5UNT @ TXST carries an 89.5 DraftKings total, 34 points above the 55.5 median across 45 posted slate games, making it the supplied slate's most elevated aggregate scoring setup. No additional matchup or movement evidence is provided to show what could challenge that expectation.
UNT's defense gives up 16 fewer points per game
16 PPGUNT is at 29 points allowed per game over 2 games; TXST is at 45 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
UNT is scoring +13.5 points per game
13.5 PPGUNT is at 30 points per game over 2 games; TXST is at 16.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
TURNOVERS
UNT commits 2 fewer turnovers per game
2 TOUNT is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; TXST is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
UNT's defense takes the ball away 1.5 more times per game
1.5 TOUNT is at 2 takeaways per game over 2 games; TXST is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
MISMATCH
UNT's ball security against TXST's giveaways — 2.5 turnovers a game to UNT's 0.5
0.5 VS 2.5TXST has coughed it up 2.5 times a game through two games, UNT 0.5 times a game through two. That giveaway gap is the widest number on this tape, and the road team is the one holding onto it.
COVERAGE
UNT's secondary gives up 92 fewer passing yards per game
92 YPGUNT is at 217 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; TXST is at 309 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
REPLACEMENT
Easton Webb (QB) is out for the season for TXST
OUT FOR SEASONReserve quarterback listed out for the season with an elbow injury. North Texas Mean Green at Texas State Bobcats Matchup (2026-09-19)
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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