North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson Tigers
O/U 44.5 · SPREAD Clemson Tigers -2.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- North Carolina Tar Heels +2.5 +100
- Published odds
- +100
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 20-28
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 110 moves| Market | Opened Sep 13 3:46 PM | Close Sep 19 11:50 AM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Clemson Tigers -4 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -3 (-108) | −1 |
| TOTAL | 44.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Clemson Tigers -190 | Clemson Tigers -145 | +45 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 13 3:46 PM | Clemson Tigers -4 (-110) | 44.5 (-105) | Clemson Tigers -190 · North Carolina Tar Heels +155 |
| Sep 13 5:47 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-112) | 44.5 (-112) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +150 |
| Sep 13 6:46 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-115) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 13 8:46 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 13 11:16 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 14 12:16 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 14 6:00 AM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 14 8:01 AM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-108) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 14 9:00 AM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-102) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 14 11:02 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 14 12:03 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 14 1:03 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 14 3:03 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 14 7:33 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-108) | 44.5 (-105) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +145 |
| Sep 15 6:00 AM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +145 |
| Sep 15 7:30 AM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +150 |
| Sep 15 11:01 AM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +145 |
| Sep 15 12:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +145 |
| Sep 15 3:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 15 4:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 15 5:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 15 6:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 15 8:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 15 10:02 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-102) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 16 6:00 AM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-102) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 16 9:31 AM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +145 |
| Sep 16 10:31 AM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +145 |
| Sep 16 12:31 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 16 1:31 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +145 |
| Sep 16 2:31 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 16 4:32 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 16 5:18 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +145 |
| Sep 16 6:37 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 16 8:07 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -175 · North Carolina Tar Heels +145 |
| Sep 16 8:37 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 16 9:08 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 16 9:38 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 16 10:08 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 16 10:38 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-125) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 16 11:08 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 12:08 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 12:40 AM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-102) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 8:30 AM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-102) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 17 9:00 AM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 17 10:01 AM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-102) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 17 10:31 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 2:32 PM | Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-102) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 3:02 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 3:32 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 4:02 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-125) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 17 4:30 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 17 4:51 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 17 5:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 5:11 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 5:31 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 5:51 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 6:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 17 6:51 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 7:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 17 8:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 9:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 17 9:31 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-112) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 17 10:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-112) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 17 10:31 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-125) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 17 11:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-102) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 12:01 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-112) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 18 12:31 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 44.5 (-102) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 18 5:01 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-112) | 44.5 (-102) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 18 6:00 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 44.5 (-102) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 18 6:30 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-120) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 18 7:30 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 44.5 (-102) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 18 8:00 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-125) | 43.5 (-118) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 9:31 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 44.5 (-102) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 18 10:31 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-102) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 11:01 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 44.5 (-102) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +135 |
| Sep 18 11:31 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-118) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 12:01 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-112) | 43.5 (-118) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 12:32 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-118) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 2:03 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 44.5 (-102) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 2:33 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 44.5 (-102) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 3:33 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-102) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 4:30 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-102) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 18 4:40 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-115) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 18 4:50 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-112) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 5:10 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-115) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 5:20 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-112) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 18 6:02 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-112) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 6:23 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-115) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 18 6:53 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-112) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 8:32 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 44.5 (-105) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 18 10:02 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-105) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 18 10:32 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 18 11:32 PM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 19 12:02 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 19 5:00 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 19 6:30 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 19 7:00 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 19 7:30 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 19 8:00 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 19 8:30 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-125) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 19 8:51 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-110) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 19 9:31 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-112) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +140 |
| Sep 19 9:41 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-118) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 19 10:02 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -165 · North Carolina Tar Heels +138 |
| Sep 19 10:11 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-115) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -155 · North Carolina Tar Heels +130 |
| Sep 19 10:32 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-110) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -160 · North Carolina Tar Heels +130 |
| Sep 19 10:42 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -155 · North Carolina Tar Heels +130 |
| Sep 19 11:00 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -150 · North Carolina Tar Heels +125 |
| Sep 19 11:27 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -145 · North Carolina Tar Heels +125 |
| Sep 19 11:30 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -150 · North Carolina Tar Heels +125 |
| CLOSESep 19 11:50 AM | Clemson Tigers -3 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Clemson Tigers -145 · North Carolina Tar Heels +125 |
The read
It’s a noon ACC opener at Memorial Stadium, with Clemson handing freshman Tait Reynolds his first college start. North Carolina arrives with Billy Edwards Jr. directing Bobby Petrino’s offense and a chance to turn its encouraging start into a conference road win.
My strongest reason for taking Carolina is how Clemson’s offensive problems meet UNC’s defensive strengths. Clemson has produced a 29.1% offensive success rate and had 33.9% of its carries stopped at or behind the line. Xavier Lewis has four sacks and Jaylen Harvey has two through their opening two games. My read is that Clemson could struggle to create the manageable passing situations Reynolds needs. Those sacks establish disruption; they don’t guarantee pressure on every possession.
Chad Morris has emphasized routine execution and protecting the ball with Reynolds. That is a sensible plan, and Reynolds’ mobility gives Carolina something to account for. But the quarterback change alone doesn’t fix a running game struggling to get started. Clemson needed five field goals against Georgia Southern, and UNC has allowed just 1.300 points per scoring opportunity—defined as a possession reaching the opponent’s 40.
Carolina also has a credible way to sustain offense. Edwards has completed 64.6% of his passes for 476 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Jelani Thurman’s eight catches for 165 yards give him a productive receiving option, while Jordan Shipp has seven catches for 96 yards. C.J. Sadler is out, so the earlier passing production does include a contributor unavailable today. Still, Carolina’s 51.3% offensive success rate and 13.2% rushing stuff rate support my view that it has the better chance of avoiding repeated stalled possessions.
The strongest objection is opponent quality. Clemson has faced the tougher schedule, and opponent-adjusted SP+ still places it ahead of Carolina, with defensive ranks of 25 and 27 respectively. Will Heldt’s two sacks and four tackles for loss show a concrete threat to UNC’s offense. Clemson’s defense can make this substantially harder than Carolina’s raw early results suggest.
That keeps me on the spread rather than the moneyline. I prefer Carolina’s demonstrated offensive execution against Clemson’s still-developing attack, but respect the home defense enough to retain the points. UNC +2.5 at +100 fits that judgment: a competitive game is plausible, but the bet rests on the matchup, not simply the expectation of a close finish.
Injuries noted
North Carolina Tar Heels: C.J. Sadler (out) — Wide receiver listed out after receiving a speeding citation during the week.; Jordan Avinger (out) — Linebacker was upgraded from questionable to out in the updated availability report; condition not disclosed.; Viliami Moala (out) — Defensive lineman listed out; condition not disclosed.; Jordan Washington (out) — Tight end listed out; condition not disclosed.; Jonah Rodriguez (out) — Offensive lineman listed out in the updated report; the syndicated report renders his first name as 'Johan.'; Keeyun Chapman (suspended) — Wide receiver was listed out and suspended indefinitely after a traffic-stop arrest involving concealed-weapon and drug charges.; Carnell Warren (out) — Wide receiver listed out; condition not disclosed.; Vodney Cleveland (out) — Defensive lineman listed out; condition not disclosed.; Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu (out) — Defensive lineman listed out; condition not disclosed.; Melkart Abou Jaoude (out) — Defensive end was ruled out on the final report with the hand/wrist injury that also kept him out against ETSU.
Clemson Tigers: Polo Anderson (out) — Safety listed out on the ACC availability report; condition not disclosed.; Shavar Young Jr. (out) — Cornerback listed out; condition not disclosed.; Cole Turner (out) — Wide receiver listed out; condition not disclosed in the availability report.; Peyton Streko (out) — Running back listed out; condition not disclosed.; Keil McGriff (out) — Wide receiver listed out; condition not disclosed.; Hevin Brown-Shuler (out) — Defensive tackle listed out; condition not disclosed.; Kourtney Kelly (out) — Defensive tackle listed out; condition not disclosed.; Joseph Roberto II (out) — Linebacker listed out; condition not disclosed.; Adam Guthrie (out) — Offensive lineman listed out; condition not disclosed.; Mason Wade (out) — Offensive lineman listed out; condition not disclosed.; Markus Strong (out) — Defensive tackle listed out; condition not disclosed.; Christopher Vizzina (game-time decision) — Backup quarterback has an elbow injury involving his non-throwing arm and was designated a game-time decision on the final report.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Billy Edwards Jr. is UNC's projected starter
9.92 Y/ABilly Edwards Jr. is UNC's projected starting quarterback. UNC's game-week notes list Edwards first at quarterback, but no opened current source contained an explicit Clemson-game starter announcement; therefore he is projected rather than confirmed. 2026 line: 476 passing yards, 64.6% completions, 9.92 yards per attempt, 2-0 TD-INT over 2 games.
Tait Reynolds is CLEM's confirmed starter
6.06 Y/ATait Reynolds is CLEM's confirmed starting quarterback. Dabo Swinney confirmed Reynolds will make his first college start; the decision was performance-based, not caused by Christopher Vizzina's injury. 2026 line: 200 passing yards, 60.6% completions, 6.06 yards per attempt, 0-0 TD-INT over 2 games.
TRENCHES
UNC's front holds runners to 74 fewer yards per game
74 YPGUNC is at 91.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; CLEM is at 165.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
PACE & SCRIPT
UNC's defense gives up 22.5 fewer points per game
22.5 PPGUNC is at 6.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; CLEM is at 29 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
UNC is scoring +9 points per game
9 PPGUNC is at 25 points per game over 2 games; CLEM is at 16 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
MISMATCH
UNC's defense against CLEM's — UNC allows 6.5 a game, CLEM 29
6.5 VS 29The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — UNC 6.5, CLEM 29, over 2 and 2 game samples.
COVERAGE
UNC's secondary gives up 113 fewer passing yards per game
113 YPGUNC is at 176.5 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; CLEM is at 289.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
REPLACEMENT
C.J. Sadler (WR) is out for UNC
OUTWide receiver listed out after receiving a speeding citation during the week. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Jordan Avinger (LB) is out for UNC
OUTLinebacker was upgraded from questionable to out in the updated availability report; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Viliami Moala (DL) is out for UNC
OUTDefensive lineman listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Jordan Washington (TE) is out for UNC
OUTTight end listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Jonah Rodriguez (OL) is out for UNC
OUTOffensive lineman listed out in the updated report; the syndicated report renders his first name as 'Johan.' QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Carnell Warren (WR) is out for UNC
OUTWide receiver listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Vodney Cleveland (DL) is out for UNC
OUTDefensive lineman listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu (DL) is out for UNC
OUTDefensive lineman listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Melkart Abou Jaoude (DL) is out for UNC
OUTDefensive end was ruled out on the final report with the hand/wrist injury that also kept him out against ETSU. Christopher Vizzina, Melkart Abou Jaoude injury updates for Clemson vs UNC (2026-09-19)
Polo Anderson (S) is out for CLEM
OUTSafety listed out on the ACC availability report; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Shavar Young Jr. (CB) is out for CLEM
OUTCornerback listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Cole Turner (WR) is out for CLEM
OUTWide receiver listed out; condition not disclosed in the availability report. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Peyton Streko (RB) is out for CLEM
OUTRunning back listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Keil McGriff (WR) is out for CLEM
OUTWide receiver listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Hevin Brown-Shuler (DT) is out for CLEM
OUTDefensive tackle listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Kourtney Kelly (DT) is out for CLEM
OUTDefensive tackle listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Joseph Roberto II (LB) is out for CLEM
OUTLinebacker listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Adam Guthrie (OL) is out for CLEM
OUTOffensive lineman listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Mason Wade (OL) is out for CLEM
OUTOffensive lineman listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Markus Strong (DT) is out for CLEM
OUTDefensive tackle listed out; condition not disclosed. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17)
Keeyun Chapman (WR) is suspended for UNC
SUSPENDEDWide receiver was listed out and suspended indefinitely after a traffic-stop arrest involving concealed-weapon and drug charges. QB Christopher Vizzina listed on Clemson vs UNC injury report (2026-09-17) Steve Belichick is leaving his dad's UNC football staff (2026-09-17)
SITUATIONAL
UNC's third-down conversion rate is 28.9 percentage points higher
28.9 PPUNC is at 40% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; CLEM is at 11.1% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
UNC gives away 40.5 fewer penalty yards per game
40.5 YDSUNC is at 30 penalty yards per game over 2 games; CLEM is at 70.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKTAIT REYNOLDSPASSING YARDS UNDER 185.5
I’m taking Reynolds under 185.5 passing yards in his first college start. He has totaled only 200 yards on 33 attempts across Clemson’s first two games, and the Tigers’ 29.1% offensive success rate does not support projecting an immediate jump in efficient passing production.
North Carolina can make the assignment uncomfortable. Xavier Lewis and Jaylen Harvey have combined for six sacks, while Clemson’s high stuff rate could leave Reynolds facing obvious passing situations. Chad Morris has emphasized routine execution and ball security, which points toward a controlled plan rather than asking a freshman quarterback to carry the offense through the air.
Reynolds’ mobility is also relevant because scrambles can move the offense without adding to his passing total. The risk is that North Carolina takes a lead and forces Clemson into greater volume, but at this price I’m willing to bet the combination of conservative play-calling, pressure and an inexperienced starter keeps him below 186 yards.
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