Kennesaw State Owls at Tennessee Volunteers
O/U 59.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 -105
- Published odds
- -105
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 9-42
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 73 moves| Market | Opened Sep 13 3:46 PM | Close Sep 19 7:30 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Tennessee Volunteers -34.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | +1 |
| TOTAL | 59.5 (-110) | 60.5 (-108) | +1 |
| MONEYLINE | Tennessee Volunteers -35000 | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 | +15000 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 13 3:46 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -34.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -35000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4500 |
| Sep 14 9:00 AM | — | 60.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -100000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5500 |
| Sep 14 11:02 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -100000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5500 |
| Sep 14 12:03 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -100000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5500 |
| Sep 14 3:03 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -100000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5500 |
| Sep 15 7:30 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 16 11:31 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -100000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5500 |
| Sep 16 3:32 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -100000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5500 |
| Sep 16 11:08 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -100000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5500 |
| Sep 17 9:31 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -34.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 12:32 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -34.5 (-112) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 1:02 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -34.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 1:32 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-112) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -35000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 2:02 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -35000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 3:02 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -35000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 3:32 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -35000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 4:30 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -35000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 4:41 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -35000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 5:01 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 5:31 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 5:41 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-112) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 5:51 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-102) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 7:21 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 9:01 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-112) | 59.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 9:31 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 10:31 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-110) | 59.5 (-115) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 17 11:01 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 18 5:01 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 18 7:30 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -50000 · Kennesaw State Owls +5000 |
| Sep 18 10:31 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 18 11:01 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 18 12:32 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 18 3:03 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 18 4:30 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 18 5:00 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 18 5:20 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 18 9:02 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 18 9:32 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -25000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4500 |
| Sep 18 10:32 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 5:00 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -15000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 6:00 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 7:00 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -15000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 8:30 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-120) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 8:40 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 61.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 8:51 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-120) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 9:00 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 61.5 (-105) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 9:11 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-120) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 9:31 AM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 61.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -25000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4500 |
| Sep 19 12:48 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 61.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 12:56 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 1:00 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 61.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 1:18 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 1:28 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-120) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 1:30 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 60.5 (-120) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 1:35 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-120) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 1:37 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 60.5 (-120) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 1:48 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 61.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 1:57 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 1:58 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 61.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 2:08 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 2:31 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 61.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 2:49 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 3:01 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 61.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 3:02 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 3:15 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 61.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 3:17 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 3:37 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-120) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 3:45 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 61.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 4:10 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 61.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 4:15 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-105) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 6:03 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35 (-120) | 60.5 (-112) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| Sep 19 6:13 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -25000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4500 |
| Sep 19 6:15 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-110) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
| CLOSESep 19 7:30 PM | Tennessee Volunteers -35.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-108) | Tennessee Volunteers -20000 · Kennesaw State Owls +4000 |
The read
Neyland gets a night game as Tennessee closes its nonconference schedule. Kennesaw State makes its first road trip of the season, with Jerry Mack returning to face his former program.
I’m laying the points because Tennessee’s running game and defensive disruption can reinforce each other throughout this matchup. The Volunteers rushed for 299 yards on 45 attempts against Georgia Tech. Kennesaw State just allowed Georgia State 230 rushing yards while losing the possession battle 37:47 to 22:13. With DeSean Bishop and Daune Morris available, Tennessee has a credible route to sustained offense without asking freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon to manufacture everything through the air.
The other side of that equation is KSU’s vulnerability once it falls behind the chains. Its standard-down success rate is 61.6%, but its passing-down success rate drops to 22.0%. Rickie Collins’ mobility and 69.0% completion rate give the Owls a way to compete. My judgment is that Tennessee’s disruptive front will interrupt enough possessions to keep that offense from consistently answering.
Finishing drives is the strongest reason I’m willing to take this beyond a straightforward Tennessee win. The Volunteers average 6.214 points per scoring opportunity, while KSU allows 3.750. Those opportunities count drives reaching the opponent’s 40. Combined with the rushing matchup, that supports a path to repeated touchdowns rather than control that fails to translate into separation.
There are real obstacles. Tennessee’s Georgia Tech scoring included an interception return and short touchdown drives following a turnover on downs and an onside kick. That production is not automatically repeatable. Ethan Davis is out for season, and the opening offensive results include his contributions before the injury. KSU’s strong early-down efficiency also means Tennessee cannot simply assume quick stops.
Even accounting for those risks, I favor the combination of Tennessee sustaining offense on the ground and forcing KSU into its weakest situations. At -35.5, I need both parts working; this matchup gives me enough reason to back them, with moderate confidence.
Injuries noted
Tennessee Volunteers: Ethan Davis (out for season) — Starting tight end tore his ACL against Georgia Tech; Heupel confirmed he will miss the remainder of 2026.; Edrees Farooq (out for season) — Starting safety is listed among Tennessee's season-ending injury losses with a knee injury.; Joakim Dodson (out for season) — Backup wide receiver is listed among Tennessee's season-ending injury losses with a leg injury.; Jaedon Harmon (out for season) — Reserve linebacker is listed among Tennessee's season-ending injury losses with a knee injury.; Jadais Richard (out for season) — Miami-transfer cornerback is listed among Tennessee's season-ending injury losses with an upper-body injury.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Rickie Collins is KENN's confirmed starter
7.69 Y/ARickie Collins is KENN's confirmed starting quarterback. Kennesaw State's official game-week preview identifies Collins as the quarterback leading the Owls' offense, and the school posted its Tennessee game notes/depth chart for the matchup. 2026 line: 446 passing yards, 69.0% completions, 7.69 yards per attempt, 2-1 TD-INT over 2 games.
Faizon Brandon is TENN's confirmed starter
9.84 Y/AFaizon Brandon is TENN's confirmed starting quarterback. Tennessee's current game-week materials identify Brandon as its quarterback, and Josh Heupel discussed what Brandon must do specifically against Kennesaw State. 2026 line: 374 passing yards, 60.5% completions, 9.84 yards per attempt, 5-0 TD-INT over 2 games.
TRENCHES
TENN is +129.5 rush yards per game
129.5 YPGKENN is at 184.5 rushing yards per game over 2 games; TENN is at 314 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
PACE & SCRIPT
TENN is scoring +18.5 points per game
18.5 PPGKENN is at 32 points per game over 2 games; TENN is at 50.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
TURNOVERS
KENN's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
1 TOKENN is at 2 takeaways per game over 2 games; TENN is at 1 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
MISMATCH
TENN's ground game against KENN's — 314 rush yards a game to 184.5
314 VS 184.5The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — KENN 184.5, TENN 314, over 2 and 2 game samples.
COVERAGE
KENN allows a third-down conversion rate 15.3 percentage points lower
15.3 PPKENN is at 24% third downs allowed over 2 games; TENN is at 39.3% over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
REPLACEMENT
Ethan Davis (TE) is out for the season for TENN
OUT FOR SEASONStarting tight end tore his ACL against Georgia Tech; Heupel confirmed he will miss the remainder of 2026. #15/14 Vols Preparing to Kick Off Three-Game Homestand vs. Kennesaw State (2026-09-14) These Tennessee tight ends replace Ethan Davis after season-ending ACL injury (2026-09-14)
Edrees Farooq (DB) is out for the season for TENN
OUT FOR SEASONStarting safety is listed among Tennessee's season-ending injury losses with a knee injury. These Tennessee tight ends replace Ethan Davis after season-ending ACL injury (2026-09-14)
Joakim Dodson (WR) is out for the season for TENN
OUT FOR SEASONBackup wide receiver is listed among Tennessee's season-ending injury losses with a leg injury. These Tennessee tight ends replace Ethan Davis after season-ending ACL injury (2026-09-14)
Jaedon Harmon (LB) is out for the season for TENN
OUT FOR SEASONReserve linebacker is listed among Tennessee's season-ending injury losses with a knee injury. These Tennessee tight ends replace Ethan Davis after season-ending ACL injury (2026-09-14)
Jadais Richard (DB) is out for the season for TENN
OUT FOR SEASONMiami-transfer cornerback is listed among Tennessee's season-ending injury losses with an upper-body injury. These Tennessee tight ends replace Ethan Davis after season-ending ACL injury (2026-09-14)
SITUATIONAL
KENN gives away 61 fewer penalty yards per game
61 YDSKENN is at 40 penalty yards per game over 2 games; TENN is at 101 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, fanatics, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKFAIZON BRANDONPASSING YARDS UNDER 229.5
I’m taking Brandon under 229.5 passing yards because Tennessee has little reason to build this game around sustained passing volume. He has thrown for 374 yards across two games, and the Volunteers just produced 299 rushing yards against Georgia Tech. Kennesaw State’s defense allowed 230 yards on the ground to Georgia State, giving Tennessee another favorable path through DeSean Bishop, Daune Morris and Brandon’s own mobility.
The large spread matters here. If Tennessee controls the game as expected, Brandon could lose late possessions while the offense leans further into its rushing depth. He is capable of beating this number with explosive throws, but the projected game script makes 230 passing yards a demanding threshold for a freshman quarterback who may not need a full game of aggressive volume.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery NCAAF game this dayThe NCAAF recordToday's NCAAF picksEvery sport this day