James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs
O/U 39.5 · SPREAD San Diego State Aztecs -12.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- James Madison Dukes ML +106
- Published odds
- +106
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 26-13
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 62 moves| Market | Opened Sep 14 6:00 AM | Close Sep 19 9:50 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-110) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 46.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-110) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | San Diego State Aztecs -125 | San Diego State Aztecs -140 | −15 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 14 6:00 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 14 8:01 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 14 10:01 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -135 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 14 12:03 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -140 · James Madison Dukes +115 |
| Sep 14 1:03 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -140 · James Madison Dukes +115 |
| Sep 14 9:34 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 14 11:34 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -135 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 15 12:01 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 16 9:31 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 16 11:31 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 16 1:31 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-112) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 16 2:31 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 16 3:32 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-118) | 46.5 (-112) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 17 6:00 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 17 10:31 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-108) | 46.5 (-112) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 17 2:32 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-108) | 46.5 (-112) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 17 3:02 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 17 3:32 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-118) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 17 4:51 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 17 11:01 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 18 5:01 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-118) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 18 8:30 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 18 9:31 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-108) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 18 10:31 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 18 11:01 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 18 12:32 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 18 2:03 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 18 4:04 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 18 4:40 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 18 6:12 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-112) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 18 6:23 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-115) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 18 6:33 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 18 6:43 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 18 6:53 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 18 7:04 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-115) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 18 7:34 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 18 7:44 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-112) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 19 12:32 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 19 5:00 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 19 8:30 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 19 9:11 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 19 9:31 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-108) | 45.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -120 · James Madison Dukes +100 |
| Sep 19 9:41 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 19 9:52 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 19 10:11 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-110) | 45.5 (-118) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 19 10:22 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -135 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 19 10:32 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 19 10:42 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-110) | 45.5 (-118) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 19 11:30 AM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 19 1:28 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-108) | 45.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 19 1:57 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -125 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 19 4:10 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +105 |
| Sep 19 5:00 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 19 6:03 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-110) | 45.5 (-118) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 19 6:15 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 19 7:44 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -135 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 19 8:14 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | San Diego State Aztecs -130 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 19 9:06 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -135 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 19 9:26 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-112) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -135 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 19 9:30 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-115) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -135 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 19 9:36 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -135 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| Sep 19 9:47 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -135 · James Madison Dukes +110 |
| CLOSESep 19 9:50 PM | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | San Diego State Aztecs -140 · James Madison Dukes +115 |
The read
James Madison heads west for its first road game under Billy Napier, meeting San Diego State under the lights at Snapdragon Stadium. The Aztecs enter with seven consecutive home wins; the Dukes bring a substantially rebuilt team facing its first test away from home.
I’m backing JMU because its strongest early traits fit SDSU’s offensive problems. The Dukes have allowed 1.8987 defensive line yards and stopped 22.1% of opposing carries at or behind the line. San Diego State has struggled to stay on schedule, with a 41.4% standard-down success rate. My expectation is that JMU can make the Aztecs lean more heavily on Jayden Denegal’s passing, which has produced 52.9% completions and 5.35 yards per attempt.
JMU also has a plausible way to support projected starter Camden Coleman. SDSU’s defense has stuffed just 9.9% of opposing carries and allowed a 42.6% success rate. That gives the Dukes an opening to sustain possessions without requiring Coleman to manufacture big plays. His 228 passing yards and no interceptions are an encouraging start, although they do not establish how he will handle this road assignment.
The strongest objection is the competition behind those numbers. JMU’s schedule ranks 130th, compared with SDSU’s 57th, and the Wagner blowout included substantial special-teams scoring. SDSU also limited UCLA before short fields helped break that game open. Its fifth-ranked explosiveness allowed and Mike Lindsay’s two interceptions make careless passing a real danger.
Still, opponent adjustment preserves a case for JMU: SP+ rates the Dukes at 4 and SDSU at -0.5, while FPI also places JMU ahead. Those ratings support my matchup judgment without deciding it. I expect JMU’s ability to sustain offense and challenge SDSU’s running game to matter more than the home setting. That is an outright-win position, so I prefer ML +106 to paying -105 for +1.5.
Injuries noted
James Madison Dukes: JC Evans (questionable) — Evans has a wrist injury. Billy Napier called him day-to-day on September 14; September 16 coverage subsequently described him as sidelined and Coleman as the replacement.; Seth Cromwell (questionable) — The running back missed the Wagner game with an undisclosed injury. Napier said he could have played in that game, described him as approximately day-to-day and said his San Diego State availability would be reassessed.; Gannon Weathersby (limited) — The linebacker played against Wagner, but Napier acknowledged he was not 100 percent and was still working back from an apparent knee injury.; Javis Mynatt (doubtful) — The safety has not played this season. September 16 reporting said he appeared to face a potentially long-term absence and that it was unclear whether he would play at all in 2026; no formal school designation was published.
San Diego State Aztecs: Dalesean Staley (out for season) — The official weekly notes say the starting safety is expected to miss the season because of a knee injury suffered in the spring.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Camden Coleman is JMU's projected starter
8.44 Y/ACamden Coleman is JMU's projected starting quarterback. Coleman is the reported replacement while JC Evans is unavailable or not ready. September 16 coverage described Evans as sidelined and Coleman as making his first FBS start, but Evans was still characterized as day-to-day and questionable earlier in the week, so Coleman is projected rather than officially confirmed. 2026 line: 228 passing yards, 63.0% completions, 8.44 yards per attempt, 1-0 TD-INT over 2 games.
Jayden Denegal is SDSU's confirmed starter
5.35 Y/AJayden Denegal is SDSU's confirmed starting quarterback. San Diego State's official game-week two-deep lists Denegal first and Draiden Trudeau second at quarterback. The notes also identify Denegal as a team captain and 10-4 as an SDSU starter. 2026 line: 182 passing yards, 52.9% completions, 5.35 yards per attempt, 3-2 TD-INT over 2 games.
TRENCHES
JMU's front holds runners to 66 fewer yards per game
66 YPGJMU is at 88.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; SDSU is at 154.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
PACE & SCRIPT
JMU is scoring +22 points per game
22 PPGJMU is at 53.5 points per game over 2 games; SDSU is at 31.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
JMU's defense gives up 16 fewer points per game
16 PPGJMU is at 8 points allowed per game over 2 games; SDSU is at 24 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
JMU @ SDSU carries a 46.5 market total
46.5The current fanduel total is 46.5, 9 points below the 55.5 median across 45 games with posted totals on this slate.
TURNOVERS
JMU commits 1.5 fewer turnovers per game
1.5 TOJMU is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; SDSU is at 2 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
SDSU's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
1 TOJMU is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; SDSU is at 2 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
MISMATCH
JMU's ball security against SDSU's giveaways — 2 turnovers a game to JMU's 0.5
0.5 VS 2The widest gap on this matchup's tape: turnovers / g — JMU 0.5, SDSU 2, over 2 and 2 game samples.
REPLACEMENT
Dalesean Staley (S) is out for the season for SDSU
OUT FOR SEASONThe official weekly notes say the starting safety is expected to miss the season because of a knee injury suffered in the spring. San Diego State Game Notes vs. James Madison (2026-09-14)
SITUATIONAL
JMU's passing game is +107 yards per game
107 YPGJMU is at 208 team passing yards per game over 2 games; SDSU is at 101 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
JMU's third-down conversion rate is 16.7 percentage points higher
16.7 PPJMU is at 50% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; SDSU is at 33.3% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKLUCKY SUTTONRUSHING YARDS UNDER 89.5
I’m betting Sutton under because this matchup attacks the weakest part of San Diego State’s offensive profile. JMU has allowed only 1.8987 defensive line yards and stopped 22.1% of opposing carries at or behind the line, while the Aztecs have managed a 41.4% success rate on standard downs.
Sutton has 139 yards on 37 carries through two games, leaving him well below this number on a per-game basis. He could receive enough volume to threaten 90 yards, particularly if San Diego State protects Jayden Denegal, but that volume will have to overcome a difficult efficiency matchup. I expect JMU to create early-down losses and force the Aztecs away from a Sutton-centered script often enough to keep him under 89.5.
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