NCAAF · Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM

Duquesne Dukes at Washington State Cougars

O/U 51.5

GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Washington State· -114

Washington State opens its home schedule at Gesa Field with both teams searching for their first win. Duquesne arrives for the last stop of its three-game opening road stretch. I’m taking the points because Washington State’s offensive problems extend beyond the scoreboard. The Cougars have one offensive touchdown through two games and have converted 2 of 21 third downs. Caden Pinnick has averaged 4.6 yards per passing attempt, with no passing touchdowns and two interceptions. The stated emphasis on simplifying the offense and making easy completions makes sense, but covering this spread requires those adjustments to produce repeated scoring drives. Duquesne offers a clear opportunity for that improvement, and its defense is the biggest threat to this ticket. Youngstown State scored on 10 of 12 possessions and led 49–10 at halftime. I’m taking that collapse seriously. My judgment, though, is that Washington State’s difficulties sustaining and finishing possessions leave room for substantial offensive improvement without enough separation to cover. Ness Davis gives the Dukes a concrete way to help themselves. He rushed for 88 yards on 11 carries last week, while Washington State has allowed 429 rushing yards across two games. Against a defense whose gap integrity has drawn concern in current reporting, I think Davis can help Duquesne extend possessions and reduce its dependence on Carson Camp’s struggling passing game. Camp’s 32.4% completion rate is the other major risk: unsuccessful possessions could repeatedly return the ball to Washington State and expose Duquesne’s defense. Even accounting for that, I favor the cushion. The matchup gives the Cougars a credible route to better football; their execution so far leaves me unconvinced that improvement translates into covering -38.5.

The pick & result

Published pick: Duquesne Dukes +38.5 -114
Published odds: -114
Result: Lost
Final score: 7-48

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 7 moves

Market	Opened Sep 19 11:19 AM	Close Sep 19 3:29 PM	Move
SPREAD	Washington State Cougars -38.5 (-115)	Washington State Cougars -38.5 (-105)	Price
TOTAL	51.5 (-110)	51.5 (-118)	Price

Every move, in order ›

When	Spread	Total	Moneyline
OPENSep 19 11:19 AM	Washington State Cougars -38.5 (-115)	51.5 (-110)	—
Sep 19 11:27 AM	Washington State Cougars -38.5 (-108)	51.5 (-110)	—
Sep 19 11:50 AM	Washington State Cougars -38 (-110)	51.5 (-115)	—
Sep 19 12:37 PM	Washington State Cougars -38 (-112)	51.5 (-115)	—
Sep 19 12:48 PM	Washington State Cougars -38 (-112)	51.5 (-112)	—
Sep 19 3:02 PM	Washington State Cougars -38.5 (-105)	51.5 (-118)	—
Sep 19 3:09 PM	Washington State Cougars -38.5 (-105)	51.5 (-115)	—
CLOSESep 19 3:29 PM	Washington State Cougars -38.5 (-105)	51.5 (-118)	—

The read

Washington State opens its home schedule at Gesa Field with both teams searching for their first win. Duquesne arrives for the last stop of its three-game opening road stretch.

I’m taking the points because Washington State’s offensive problems extend beyond the scoreboard. The Cougars have one offensive touchdown through two games and have converted 2 of 21 third downs. Caden Pinnick has averaged 4.6 yards per passing attempt, with no passing touchdowns and two interceptions. The stated emphasis on simplifying the offense and making easy completions makes sense, but covering this spread requires those adjustments to produce repeated scoring drives.

Duquesne offers a clear opportunity for that improvement, and its defense is the biggest threat to this ticket. Youngstown State scored on 10 of 12 possessions and led 49–10 at halftime. I’m taking that collapse seriously. My judgment, though, is that Washington State’s difficulties sustaining and finishing possessions leave room for substantial offensive improvement without enough separation to cover.

Ness Davis gives the Dukes a concrete way to help themselves. He rushed for 88 yards on 11 carries last week, while Washington State has allowed 429 rushing yards across two games. Against a defense whose gap integrity has drawn concern in current reporting, I think Davis can help Duquesne extend possessions and reduce its dependence on Carson Camp’s struggling passing game.

Camp’s 32.4% completion rate is the other major risk: unsuccessful possessions could repeatedly return the ball to Washington State and expose Duquesne’s defense. Even accounting for that, I favor the cushion. The matchup gives the Cougars a credible route to better football; their execution so far leaves me unconvinced that improvement translates into covering -38.5.

Injuries noted

Washington State Cougars: Tony Freeman (out for season) — Starting wide receiver and return specialist tore his ACL and is expected to miss the remainder of the season.; Ryan McKendry (questionable) — Listed questionable for the Duquesne game with an undisclosed injury.; CJ Toney (questionable) — Listed questionable for the Duquesne game with an undisclosed injury.; Hudson Cedarland (out) — Listed out with a leg injury and expected to miss an extended period.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

Carson Camp is DUQ's projected starter
2.84 Y/A
Carson Camp is DUQ's projected starting quarterback. Duquesne's current game-specific depth chart lists Camp first at quarterback ahead of Logan Kushner. No separate coach statement explicitly confirming the Washington State start was retrieved. 2026 line: 105 passing yards, 32.4% completions, 2.84 yards per attempt, 1-2 TD-INT over 2 games.
Caden Pinnick is WSU's confirmed starter
4.60 Y/A
Caden Pinnick is WSU's confirmed starting quarterback. Washington State's Sept. 16 game notes identify Pinnick as the starting quarterback and list him first on the Duquesne depth chart. 2026 line: 207 passing yards, 55.6% completions, 4.60 yards per attempt, 0-2 TD-INT over 2 games.

TRENCHES

WSU's front holds runners to 99 fewer yards per game
99 YPG
DUQ is at 313.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; WSU is at 214.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.

PACE & SCRIPT

WSU's defense gives up 23 fewer points per game
23 PPG
DUQ is at 52 points allowed per game over 2 games; WSU is at 29 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

TURNOVERS

DUQ commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
1 TO
DUQ is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; WSU is at 2 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
WSU's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game
1 TO
DUQ is at 0 takeaways per game over 2 games; WSU is at 1 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.

MISMATCH

WSU's defense against DUQ's — WSU allows 29 a game, DUQ 52
29 VS 52
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — DUQ 52, WSU 29, over 2 and 2 game samples.

REPLACEMENT

Tony Freeman (WR) is out for the season for WSU
OUT FOR SEASON
Starting wide receiver, return specialist and team captain; Kirby Moore said Freeman will miss the season with a torn ACL. College Football Injury Report: Most Injured Teams, Week 3 (2026-09-18) WSU WR Tony Freeman to miss rest of season with torn ACL, plus other injury updates (2026-09-14)
Trey Leckner (TE) is out for WSU
OUT
Tight end listed out; the report did not specify the injury. College Football Injury Report: Most Injured Teams, Week 3 (2026-09-18)
Hudson Cedarland (TE) is out for WSU
OUT
Tight end listed out with a leg injury. College Football Injury Report: Most Injured Teams, Week 3 (2026-09-18)

SITUATIONAL

DUQ's third-down conversion rate is 14.5 percentage points higher
14.5 PP
DUQ is at 24% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; WSU is at 9.5% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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