Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned Frogs

Injuries noted

Arkansas State Red Wolves: Devin Spencer (out for season) — Running back remains listed out with a knee injury and is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

TCU Horned Frogs: Dozie Ezukanma (out) — Starting outside receiver is expected to miss his third consecutive game because of a head injury.; Jordan Dwyer (doubtful) — Starting receiver has a lower-body/foot injury. Sonny Dykes called him doubtful, and subsequent reporting said he was expected to miss a third consecutive game.; Zach Chapman (doubtful) — Starting edge rusher has an undisclosed lower-body injury, missed most of fall camp in a boot and had not played this season; Dykes called him doubtful.; Jamel Johnson (probable) — Starting safety missed the Grambling State game with a foot injury, but Dykes said he would be available against Arkansas State.

QUARTERBACK

• Trey Owens is ARST's projected starter

  9.79 Y/A

  Trey Owens is ARST's projected starting quarterback. Arkansas State's game-week notes list Owens atop the quarterback depth chart, and current matchup reporting identifies him as the quarterback leading the offense; no separate game-day starter announcement was located. 2026 line: 460 passing yards, 72.3% completions, 9.79 yards per attempt, 3-4 TD-INT over 2 games.

• Jaden Craig is TCU's confirmed starter

  8.98 Y/A

  Jaden Craig is TCU's confirmed starting quarterback. TCU's official game-week preview identifies Craig as the Horned Frogs' new starting quarterback. 2026 line: 566 passing yards, 69.8% completions, 8.98 yards per attempt, 4-0 TD-INT over 2 games.

TRENCHES

• TCU's front holds runners to 148.5 fewer yards per game

  148.5 YPG

  TCU has allowed 55 rushing yards per game over two games, 148.5 fewer than ARST's 203.5. Both figures come from opposing boxes through Sept 18, a two-game base with no opponent adjustment attached.

PACE & SCRIPT

• TCU's defense gives up 13.5 fewer points per game

  13.5 PPG

  ARST is at 24.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; TCU is at 11 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

TURNOVERS

• TCU commits 1.5 fewer turnovers per game

  1.5 TO

  ARST is at 2.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; TCU is at 1 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

• ARST's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game

  1 TO

  ARST is at 3 takeaways per game over 2 games; TCU is at 2 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.

MISMATCH

• TCU's ball security against ARST's giveaways — 2.5 turnovers a game to TCU's 1

  1 VS 2.5

  ARST is at 2.5 turnovers a game through two, TCU at 1 through two. It is the widest split on this tape, though it is the narrowest of the turnover gaps on the board and rests on a two-game sample.

COVERAGE

• TCU allows a third-down conversion rate 34 percentage points lower

  34 PP

  ARST is at 50% third downs allowed over 2 games; TCU is at 16% over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.

REPLACEMENT

• Devin Spencer (RB) is out for the season for ARST

  OUT FOR SEASON

  Running back remains listed out with a knee injury and is projected to miss the remainder of the season. Arkansas State Red Wolves Injuries 2026-2027 - Updated NCAAF Injury Report (2026-09-19)

• Dozie Ezukanma (WR) is out for TCU

  OUT

  Starting outside receiver is expected to miss his third consecutive game because of a head injury. TCU’s inexperience at wide receiver will be tested vs. Arkansas State (2026-09-16)

SITUATIONAL

• TCU's staff goes for it 3 more times per game on fourth down

  3 ATT/G

  ARST is at 0.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; TCU is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

• ARST's fourth-down conversion rate is 57.1 percentage points higher

  57.1 PP

  ARST is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; TCU is at 42.9% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

• ARST's third-down conversion rate is 16.4 percentage points higher

  16.4 PP

  ARST is at 55.6% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; TCU is at 39.1% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.