Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red Raiders

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  AMARE THOMASANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5

  NCAAFHouston· +110

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Thomas is Houston's clear number one option through two weeks — eleven catches, 162 yards, two touchdowns, a 14.7-yard average per catch that says he's built for chunk plays and end-zone targets, not just checkdowns. That lines up with the two things driving my spread pick: Houston's passing game grades out well ahead of Tech on a per-play basis, and Tech's defense is leaking explosive plays at a 1.351 clip, 111th of 138 teams nationally. A defense that gives up big plays at that rate, matched against a passing attack with one obvious go-to receiver, is where I expect Thomas to find the end zone again. Plus money on a guy who's already scored in both games and owns the target share to keep doing it is a price worth taking.

  ×

  Amare Thomas
  Anytime Touchdown over 0.5

  +110 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Houston

  Read Gary’s Take

  Thomas is Houston's clear number one option through two weeks — eleven catches, 162 yards, two touchdowns, a 14.7-yard average per catch that says he's built for chunk plays and end-zone targets, not just checkdowns. That lines up with the two things driving my spread pick: Houston's passing game grades out well ahead of Tech on a per-play basis, and Tech's defense is leaking explosive plays at a 1.351 clip, 111th of 138 teams nationally. A defense that gives up big plays at that rate, matched against a passing attack with one obvious go-to receiver, is where I expect Thomas to find the end zone again. Plus money on a guy who's already scored in both games and owns the target share to keep doing it is a price worth taking.

• GARY'S PICK

  MAKHI HUGHESANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5

  NCAAFHouston· +144

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Same case I made on the spread, aimed at one player. Houston converts 94.1 percent of its power-down runs and gets stopped behind the line on just 8.2 percent of carries — that's a run game winning at the point of attack. Tech's defense has allowed 62.5 percent on power downs this season, which is the matchup that decides short-yardage snaps and goal-line trips. Hughes is the one getting the volume to cash that in: 25 carries to the rest of Houston's backfield's eight, 142 yards, two touchdowns already in two games. When one side owns the line of scrimmage the way Houston does here, the bell-cow back is who benefits closest to the goal line. Plus-144 on the guy carrying that load is a number I'll take.

  ×

  Makhi Hughes
  Anytime Touchdown over 0.5

  +144 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Houston

  Read Gary’s Take

  Same case I made on the spread, aimed at one player. Houston converts 94.1 percent of its power-down runs and gets stopped behind the line on just 8.2 percent of carries — that's a run game winning at the point of attack.

  Tech's defense has allowed 62.5 percent on power downs this season, which is the matchup that decides short-yardage snaps and goal-line trips. Hughes is the one getting the volume to cash that in: 25 carries to the rest of Houston's backfield's eight, 142 yards, two touchdowns already in two games.

  When one side owns the line of scrimmage the way Houston does here, the bell-cow back is who benefits closest to the goal line. Plus-144 on the guy carrying that load is a number I'll take.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.