Ball State Cardinals at Ohio State Buckeyes

It’s opening Saturday at Ohio Stadium, with a 12:30 p.m. ET kickoff. Both programs begin a new season after substantial roster changes. Ohio State’s offensive continuity carries my decision. Julian Sayin, Bo Jackson and Jeremiah Smith return together, and the offensive line has only one new starter, although assignments have changed. Sayin completed 77% of his passes last season; Jackson averaged 6.1 yards per carry. Those numbers describe demonstrated production from players remaining central to this team. My expectation is that their continuity helps Ohio State establish both parts of its offense against Ball State’s extensively reconstructed defense. The other half of this bet is Ball State’s ability to extend possessions. Against Miami (Ohio), the Cardinals punted five times across the middle two quarters and allowed six sacks. Against Toledo, they generated only 56 yards before halftime. Those stretches gave opponents repeated opportunities to separate. Keldric Luster now makes his first college start behind what the current reporting describes as an experienced line. The assumption carrying my ticket is that the quarterback change and roster additions will not immediately resolve those drive-sustaining problems against Ohio State. Covering -49.5 requires that possession advantage to keep producing points throughout the game. Ohio State also returns Isaiah West, who recorded 310 rushing yards at 5.3 per carry last season. His production gives the offense another demonstrated rushing option. I expect Ohio State’s returning offensive personnel to turn repeated opportunities into touchdowns often enough to cover; that is my matchup judgment, rather than a conclusion supplied by its ranking. Ball State’s strongest route to covering is productive rushing, occasional defensive stops and scoring that continues after an early deficit. Its finale against Miami (Ohio) included two fourth-quarter touchdowns after it entered the quarter trailing 38–10. Those possessions matter enormously at this spread. Ohio State’s strongest obstacle is its own execution: the offense stalled against Indiana and Miami to finish last season, and the defense now replaces eight starters. Ball State’s extensive reconstruction also limits how confidently its old offensive failures can be carried forward. I give Ohio State’s returning offensive production more weight than Ball State’s preseason improvement claims. The unresolved question that could change this decision is whether Ball State’s experienced line and Luster’s mobility produce sustained possessions against the rebuilt defense. My bet assumes Ohio State prevents that consistently enough to keep extending its lead.