Arizona State Sun Devils at Duke Blue Devils

TALE OF THE TAPE

Duke Blue Devils Arizona State Record 8-5 ← 8-4 Total Offense 414.6 ← 400.5 Def YPG Allowed 409.2 → 342.3 SP+ Offense 36.8 ← N/A Key Injuries None Leavitt, Brown, Tyson (OUT)

Gary's Take Don't let the season-long defensive stats in the table above fool you—the Arizona State team taking the field in El Paso is not the same unit that built that 8-4 record. The Sun Devils have been absolutely decimated by the portal and opt-outs, missing nearly 20 players from their two-deep roster. Crucially, they are without their entire offensive engine: starting QB Sam Leavitt, 1,000-yard rusher Raleek Brown, and star receiver Jordyn Tyson are all gone. They turn the keys over to Jeff Sims, a turnover-prone transfer playing behind a patchwork offensive line.

On the other sideline, you have a Duke team that just won the ACC Championship and feels snubbed by the Playoff committee. Unlike many teams in this tier, the Blue Devils have retained their core. Quarterback Darian Mensah (30 TDs) is playing, and his connection with Jordan Moore should shred an ASU secondary missing key pieces like Keith Abney II. Duke's offense has averaged 36 points per game over their last three outings, while ASU mustered just 7 points in their regular-season finale before the roster exodus even began.

This is a classic bowl season mismatch: a motivated conference champion with roster continuity against a depleted team looking toward 2026. Duke's defense has been leaky this year, but a Jeff Sims-led offense missing its top weapons doesn't have the firepower to exploit it. I'm backing the team that actually wants to be here.