Tulane Green Wave at Ole Miss Rebels

TALE OF THE TAPE

Ole Miss Rebels Tulane Green Wave Record 11-1 ← 11-2 Offense (Yds/G) 498.1 ← 410.7 Defense (Yds Allowed) 3997.0 ← 4882.0 Net Rating (SP+) 0.0 0.0 Key Injuries None None

Gary's Take Ole Miss brings an SEC offense that has been humming all year into a playoff date with a Tulane team that has done everything right in the AAC down the stretch. The gap on paper is obvious: almost 500 yards of total offense per game for the Rebels versus just over 410 for the Green Wave, and Ole Miss has given up significantly fewer total yards on defense over the season. The question for us isn’t who advances; it’s whether that advantage shows up as another 30‑point demolition or a more controlled two‑to‑three score win.

Shawqi Itraish pilots an Ole Miss attack that is balanced and dangerous, with real vertical juice in this passing game and enough run support from Logan Diggs and Domonique Thomas to keep Tulane honest. They’re throwing for over 300 yards a game and adding close to 190 on the ground, and down the stretch they’ve been relentless – at least 30 points in each of their last five, including a shutout blowout at home. Against a Tulane defense that has allowed far more passing yardage over the season, De'Zhaun Stribling and Devin Price are in position to win on the outside, while Harrison Wallace III and tight end Trace Bruckler stress the intermediate windows.

Tulane, though, is no dead dog. Brendan Sullivan has this offense in rhythm, with the Green Wave scoring 27 or more in each of their last five and living in the 30s against conference opponents. Zuberi Mobley and Maurice Turner give them enough on the ground to keep Ole Miss from just teeing off, and Jimmy Calloway plus Bryce Bohanon can punish softer zone looks if the Rebels get up big and start playing off coverage. This is where the rematch and postseason context matter: Ole Miss already humiliated Tulane 45–10 in this building once. Jon Sumrall and his staff have that tape, the emotional edge of revenge, and zero doubt about what they’re up against.

Layer on the situational factors: this is an on‑campus CFP game where big home favorites are often shaded a little high, and Ole Miss is breaking in Pete Golding as a new head coach after moving on from Lane Kiffin. With a defensive‑minded coach in the big chair, I expect a slightly more conservative game script – lean on Diggs and Thomas, trust a defense that just held multiple SEC opponents to two scores or less, and bleed clock once in control rather than chasing style points. That style is perfect for a backdoor or for Tulane simply trading scores enough to stay inside three possessions.

I see Ole Miss jumping out early behind Itraish and that receiver group, getting comfortable separation, then shifting into playoff game‑management mode while Tulane, behind Sullivan, Mobley, and Calloway, keeps punching and finds enough success against softer looks to avoid a second straight blowout. Ole Miss wins, but the number is rich.

That’s why I’m taking Tulane Green Wave +17.5 -105 to cover in Oxford.

The only way this really goes sideways is if Tulane’s pass defense collapses again, Ole Miss keeps the accelerator down for four full quarters under Golding, and we get a repeat of September’s script – but in a playoff setting with both teams fully locked in, I’m betting the Green Wave stay within range.