Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio State Buckeyes

TALE OF THE TAPE

Ohio State Buckeyes Indiana Hoosiers Total Offense YPG 438.5 → 483.9 Passing YPG 267.0 ← 254.1 Rushing YPG 171.5 → 229.8 Total TDs 55 → 66 Pass Yds Allowed 1456.0 ← 2070.0 Rush Yds Allowed 980.0 → 951.0 QB Rating 183.8 → 186.3 Key Injuries None None

Gary's Take The public is going to load up on Ohio State, but the tale of the tape says this matchup is closer than that home favorite number suggests. Indiana brings the more productive offense, with clear edges in total yardage and touchdowns scored (around 484 yards and 66 total TDs versus Ohio State’s 438 yards and 55 TDs per game/season). Their ground game is more imposing, too (about 230 rushing yards and 29 rushing TDs compared to 172 and 24 for the Buckeyes), and the passing attack has been slightly more efficient (quarterback rating 186.3 with 37 TDs and 6 picks versus 183.8 with 31 TDs and 5 picks).

Ohio State’s counterpunch is on defense, especially against the pass (roughly 1,456 passing yards allowed versus 2,070 for Indiana), keeping them sturdier when opponents have to throw. But Indiana’s defense quietly holds its own against the run (allowing about 951 rushing yards versus 980 for Ohio State), so they’re not soft in the trenches. When you layer that onto rating metrics that see these teams as essentially equal (identical net rating in the advanced numbers) and a clean injury report on both sides (no significant absences listed), this profiles more like a tight, back-and-forth contest than a multi-score Buckeye win.

Here’s how I see it playing out: Ohio State’s quarterback hits some shots through the air early (backed by their stronger passing yardage), but Indiana answers with long, balanced drives built on that rushing edge and red-zone finishing (more total touchdowns on the year). Over four quarters this feels like a game that settles within a field goal either way, given the even overall efficiency profile (no gap in the top-line advanced rating). Lock it in: Indiana Hoosiers +4.5.

Only way this misses is if Ohio State’s passing attack overwhelms Indiana’s secondary and forces the Hoosiers into a one-dimensional, pass-heavy script.