Tennessee Volunteers at Iowa State Cyclones

The Sweet Sixteen lights shine bright in Chicago as the red-hot Iowa State Cyclones clash with the giant-killing Tennessee Volunteers in a massive stylistic showdown.

The Cyclones are peaking at the exact right moment, putting up staggering numbers over their last five games with a +30.6 Net Rating driven by a 122.8 Offensive Rating and a 92.2 Defensive Rating. The biggest mismatch on the floor tonight is ball security. Tennessee has struggled heavily with turnovers lately, giving it away on roughly 17% of their recent possessions. That spells disaster against an Iowa State defense that ranks fifth nationally in adjusted efficiency and just forced 19 turnovers against Kentucky in the Round of 32. When the Cyclones get those live-ball turnovers, they convert them at a lethal rate, shooting a 58.0% effective field goal percentage over their last five outings while pushing their pace to 71.8 possessions per game.

Tennessee’s main path to keeping this close is their elite offensive rebounding, as they pull down an incredible 15.8 offensive boards per game. However, Iowa State could get a massive frontcourt boost with 16.4 PPG scorer and leading rebounder Joshua Jefferson returning from a six-day absence as a game-time decision. Even if he is limited, the Cyclones' perimeter firepower is simply too overwhelming. Iowa State hits 38.7% of their threes on high volume, led by Milan Momcilovic’s elite 49.3% season mark from deep. With Tamin Lipsey coming off a 26-point, 10-assist masterpiece and Tennessee's defensive rating slipping to an uncharacteristic 105.3 over their last five games, the Cyclones have too much defensive pressure and shooting efficiency for the Volunteers to keep pace for a full 40 minutes. Lay the points.