Troy Trojans at Nebraska Cornhuskers

The NCAA Tournament opens up in Oklahoma City with the four-seed Nebraska Cornhuskers looking to break out of a late-season slump against a surging Troy Trojans squad. When you have a massive 13.5-point spread in the Big Dance, you have to look closely at the pace and current form. Both of these teams prefer to grind it out in the half-court, with Nebraska's tempo at 66.8 and Troy sitting even slower at 65.1. In a low-possession game, laying nearly two touchdowns requires elite and consistent offensive efficiency, which the Cornhuskers simply haven't shown over the last month of the season.

Nebraska built its elite resume early in the year, but over their last 13 games, they have cooled off significantly to go 7-6. Their recent metrics reflect that slide; over their last five games, Nebraska's offensive rating has dropped to 106.4 and their net efficiency has flatlined to +0.5. While their defense remains exceptional, ranking seventh nationally in adjusted efficiency, asking a sputtering offense to build a 14-point margin with fewer possessions is a tall order. Troy, on the other hand, is peaking at the right time. The Trojans have won five of their last six games, posting a +14.2 net rating in their last five outings while holding opponents to a 100.4 defensive rating.

The math for a cover here heavily favors the underdog because of how Troy generates extra scoring opportunities. The Trojans crash the offensive glass relentlessly, carrying a 32.8% offensive rebounding rate led by Thomas Dowd's 10.1 boards per game. Nebraska has shown some vulnerability on the glass with just a 25.6% offensive rebounding rate themselves, which gives Troy a clear path to win the second-chance points battle. Furthermore, Troy gets to the charity stripe at a high clip, boasting a .358 free-throw rate. When a double-digit underdog can limit the total number of possessions through a methodical pace, extend their own possessions on the offensive glass, and score with the clock stopped at the foul line, they are perfectly built to stay inside a big number. Grab the points with the Trojans.