Saint Louis Billikens at Georgia Bulldogs

We have a high-speed collision in Buffalo tonight as the SEC’s most vertical offense meets the Atlantic 10’s premier defensive wall in a classic 8-9 seed toss-up. This matchup is a nightmare for a Saint Louis team that has lived and died by its home-court dominance during their 28-5 season. The Billikens were a perfect 19-0 at home but have looked like a completely different program away from St. Louis, going just 1-4 in their last five games away from home with a staggering -17.2 average margin. In the NCAA Tournament, those kinds of splits are a massive red flag, especially when facing a Georgia squad that has proven its efficiency translates to neutral floors with a 19-5 record outside of Athens.

The stylistic battle here favors the Bulldogs because of how they generate their points. Georgia leads the nation in fast-break points at 19.9 per game and ranks #1 in the percentage of field goals that are dunks. This "Dunkyard Dawgs" approach is designed to stress the mobility of opposing frontcourts. While Saint Louis boasts the #1 field goal percentage defense in the country, that metric is going to be tested by the status of Robbie Avila. The Billikens' star center is the engine of their offense, but he is currently playing through plantar fasciitis. Even assuming he plays his usual minutes, asking a center with a foot injury to keep pace with Georgia’s transition-heavy attack is a tall order. When Avila was limited earlier this month against George Mason, the Billikens were run out of the gym in a 29-point blowout.

Finally, the depth and momentum advantages sit firmly in the Georgia corner. The Bulldogs (22-10) enter Buffalo with a +6.5 Net Rating over their last five games, compared to a -0.7 mark for Saint Louis. Georgia has the luxury of bringing their season-long leading scorer, Jeremiah Wilkinson (17.0 PPG), off the bench to maintain pressure on the perimeter. Combined with Kanon Catchings, who is currently on a tear averaging 18.4 points over his last five outings, Georgia simply has too many ways to score for a Saint Louis defense that has regressed late in the year. At a price of just 2.5 points, I’m laying the number with the more athletic, battle-tested SEC side.