Howard Bison at Michigan Wolverines

The bright lights of the NCAA Tournament shine on Buffalo as the Midwest Regional's top-seeded Michigan Wolverines face the First Four surviving Howard Bison. Michigan is a wagon, boasting a massive +36.7 Adjusted Efficiency Margin and an elite 127.6 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency built against a grueling Big Ten schedule. They have a massive size advantage with 7-foot-3 Aday Mara anchoring a defense that swats 5.9 shots per game. However, 31.5 points is an astronomical number to lay in a 40-minute, neutral-court tournament setting where variance is at its peak. The Wolverines have cooled slightly from their dominant regular-season peak, posting just a +2.9 net efficiency rating over their last five games as they battled through the physical gauntlet of their conference tournament. Howard enters this matchup with the ultimate equalizer for massive spreads: the ability to get to the charity stripe. The Bison boast a staggering 0.448 free-throw rate, relying on aggressive penetration from guards Bryce Harris and Ose Okojie. When a team is catching over 30 points, stopping the clock and generating offense without burning possessions is the exact formula needed to stay inside the number. Furthermore, Howard is peaking at the perfect time. Riding a nine-game winning streak, the Bison have surged to a +17.9 net efficiency rating over their last five contests, fueled by an opportunistic defense that creates 8.5 steals per game. While the Wolverines are well-rested and feature overwhelming frontcourt talent in Mara and Yaxel Lendeborg, Howard is playing with the unprecedented confidence of a program fresh off its first-ever tournament victory. A 32-point margin requires relentless, 40-minute execution from a favorite whose primary goal is simply to survive and advance. The Bison's heavy reliance on drawing contact and forcing turnovers provides a reliable path to grinding out enough points to keep this contest from completely spiraling out of control.