TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas Jayhawks

The final slot in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals is on the line tonight at the T-Mobile Center as the surging TCU Horned Frogs clash with the rested Kansas Jayhawks. TCU enters on a massive heater, having won nine of their last ten games, but they are running into a brutal situational spot. Kansas has enjoyed five full days of rest since their regular-season finale, while the Horned Frogs are playing on zero days of rest following a physically taxing, high-energy comeback over Oklahoma State just last night. Add in the reality that the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City functionally serves as a home-court environment for the Jayhawks, and the scheduling advantages for Bill Self's squad are overwhelming.

Looking at the on-court data, TCU's offense relies heavily on paint touches and second-chance points, grabbing an elite 34 percent of their own misses in recent action. However, that physical style plays directly into the teeth of a Kansas defense that ranks 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Anchored by Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Flory Bidunga, the Jayhawks lead the conference with 5.9 blocks per game and protect the rim at an elite level. Because TCU shoots just 33 percent from beyond the arc as a team, they will be forced to consistently challenge Kansas inside, where the well-rested Jayhawks are best equipped to turn them away.

Laying 5.5 points requires trusting a team's late-game execution, and Kansas has the top-end offensive efficiency to close the door. Freshman Darryn Peterson is peaking at the perfect time after a 27-point regular-season finale, and alongside Tre White, the Jayhawks' starting unit boasts a highly efficient 52.5 percent effective field goal percentage. Furthermore, White's 86.6 percent clip from the free-throw line is the exact profile you want when a favorite needs to secure a multi-possession cover in the final minute. TCU put up a great fight against Kansas in their January overtime thriller, but asking them to replicate that output on tired legs against a rested, elite defense in Kansas City is simply asking too much.