Butler Bulldogs at DePaul Blue Demons

We're wrapping up the Big East regular season at Wintrust Arena today, where 16-14 DePaul hosts 15-15 Butler with tournament seeding on the line for both squads. DePaul is getting a lot of respect here as a 3.5-point favorite, likely driven by their recent road success and the Senior Day narrative with a chance to lock up a first-round bye. But the reality is the Blue Demons have struggled mightily on their own floor down the stretch. They are 1-3 in their last four home games with a -8.3 average margin, culminating in a 19-point blowout loss to Villanova on Wednesday. Coach Chris Holtmann specifically mentioned "heavy legs" for his starters who have been logging massive minutes, and now they have to bounce back on just two days of rest against a physical Butler squad.

Butler enters this matchup with a significant season-long efficiency advantage (+11.0 AdjEM compared to DePaul's +7.6) and a clear edge on the glass. The Bulldogs pull down offensive boards at a 34.7% clip, led by Michael Ajayi's 11.1 rebounds per game, while DePaul sits at a below-average 28.6% offensive rebounding rate. That disparity in second-chance opportunities is massive when you consider DePaul's offense ranks 189th nationally in efficiency. Butler already proved they can crack DePaul's top-40 defense by hanging 87 points on them in their first meeting in January. With starting point guard Evan Haywood back in the rotation and an extra day of rest, the Bulldogs have the pieces to dictate the terms of engagement.

Head coach Thad Matta publicly challenged his team's effort after their second-half collapse against Creighton, and I expect a prideful response from this group. DePaul is simply too offensively challenged to be laying multiple possessions against a team that beat them earlier this year and consistently generates more scoring opportunities through rebounding and ball security. I'll take the points with the better rebounding team getting the rest advantage.